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ATMs didn’t kill bank teller jobs, but the iPhone did

davidoks.blog

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Re: ATMs didn’t kill bank teller jobs, but the iPhone did

#561

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I guess there's also a difference between "can use checks" vs "have to use checks" because, aside from rent, I can't recall having to write checks. Everything else allowed either credit card or direct debit on top of allowing checks.

> I guess there's also a difference between "can use checks" vs "have to use checks" because, aside from rent, I can't recall having to write checks. Landlords, IME, insist on a physical check for the first payment. I think they're performing some sort of blood ritual with it in the back of the office. After the sacrifice is complete, though, they'll switch to ACH. The only other place I've ever had to use checks is…

I think my last car purchase I paid deposit by card but paid the balance by personal check. In years past that balance would have been by a cashier check but I guess systems these days can confirm there's money in the account.

Re: ATMs didn’t kill bank teller jobs, but the iPhone did

#562

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The troubling thought I had is that AI does not displace the technicians, or the vending machines. It replaces the manager. This is really why ai will have a more profound impact on the society: it is fundamentally changing the hierarchy of conpetence we have gotten so accustomed to.

Why the difference that I’ve seen the exact opposite? It brutally reinforces it. It’s no longer the ability to do a task that is valuable, it’s the ability to understand what tasks need to be done.

Yes. So only 2% (down from 90%)of the population is needed in farming now to produce for the rest of 98%.

That is fine because there are other parts of the value chain these 98% people fit into.

With the development of Ai I don't see new areas to graduate into.

So you are right: there will be people left. But it is not clear what the masses can up skill themselves to do.

Re: ATMs didn’t kill bank teller jobs, but the iPhone did

#563

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The "Nordic model" refers to the socioeconomics common in Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden), not just to Norway. It's about how you approach commons and common wealth. Any commons will do. It does not rely on oil resources per se. Let's say for the sake of argument it does depend on oil wealth, though. The US currently has something like 30x the proven oil reserves that Norway does (>20…

> The US currently has something like 30x the proven oil reserves that Norway does And 60x the population. And defends the world with defense expenditures. > simply a 5% bite out of net worth Once that door is open, there will be no end to it. Washington state enacted a 7% capital gains tax, and the next year raised it to 9.9%. Now they're close to enacting a 9.9% income tax. > My understanding is that estate taxes g…

Perhaps a good argument, but you shouldn’t bring in SpaceX. SpaceX was founded by a millionaire who spent half his wealth on it.

Re: ATMs didn’t kill bank teller jobs, but the iPhone did

#564
post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They key is to do it by setting up the right structure or end up with it naturally, not by laws and control, because then you end up in a oppressive nanny state at the very best.

> They key is to do it by setting up the right structure or end up with it naturally This is extremely hand-wavy. Can you be more concrete in what you think this looks like? The way I see it, we're only 5-10 years away from having general purpose robots and AI that can basically do anything. If the prices for that automation is low enough, there will be massive layoffs as workers are replaced. There's no way to "natu…

Ten years from now, we will still be ten years from general AI or robots.

Re: ATMs didn’t kill bank teller jobs, but the iPhone did

#565

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If your banks website has a bunch of ads on it, you should probably consider switching banks.

Sure, if you want to be obtuse about the comment, you'd be so cool in how you wouldn't be wrong.

I think we know who was being obtuse…

Re: ATMs didn’t kill bank teller jobs, but the iPhone did

#566

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The US currently has something like 30x the proven oil reserves that Norway does And 60x the population. And defends the world with defense expenditures. > simply a 5% bite out of net worth Once that door is open, there will be no end to it. Washington state enacted a 7% capital gains tax, and the next year raised it to 9.9%. Now they're close to enacting a 9.9% income tax. > My understanding is that estate taxes g…

Perhaps a good argument, but you shouldn’t bring in SpaceX. SpaceX was founded by a millionaire who spent half his wealth on it.

$100 million. He's also founded many other companies. Jeff Bezos has invested an estimated $10 billion to over $14.6 billion into Blue Origin as of early 2025.

Re: ATMs didn’t kill bank teller jobs, but the iPhone did

#567

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Someone still needs to review and test the code, and if the code is for embedded systems I find it unlikely. I feel like you didn't understand my comment. I am predicting that there is no code to review. You simply ask the AI to do stuff and it does it. Today, for example, you can ask ChatGPT to play chess with you, and it will. You don't need a "chess program," all the rules are built in to the LLM. Same goes for…

LLM technology will never achieve 100% accuracy in its output. There is an inherent non-determinism. Tasks that require 100% accuracy cannot be handled by LLMs alone. If an LLM is used to replace HR, it will inevitably do something wrong, and a human will need to be in the loop to correct it. Same goes for chess, there will always be a chance that it makes an illegal move. Same goes for code, there will always be a c…

Relevant to your comment is this link from today's HN front page, about adapting LLMs to perform deterministic calculations.

https://www.percepta.ai/blog/can-llms-be-computers

Re: ATMs didn’t kill bank teller jobs, but the iPhone did

#568

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The "Nordic model" refers to the socioeconomics common in Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden), not just to Norway. It's about how you approach commons and common wealth. Any commons will do. It does not rely on oil resources per se. Let's say for the sake of argument it does depend on oil wealth, though. The US currently has something like 30x the proven oil reserves that Norway does (>20…

> The US currently has something like 30x the proven oil reserves that Norway does And 60x the population. And defends the world with defense expenditures. > simply a 5% bite out of net worth Once that door is open, there will be no end to it. Washington state enacted a 7% capital gains tax, and the next year raised it to 9.9%. Now they're close to enacting a 9.9% income tax. > My understanding is that estate taxes g…

> And 60x the population.

OK, let's assume that oil is the only relevant resource, and population is the other relevant factor, and there's no efficiencies of scale or exceptional American ingenuity that can be discovered. 30x the resources combined with 60 times the population would mean we should be able to provide at least half the floor that Norway does, right?

Does that mean if we discover another resource the US has, or efficiencies of scale, or an exceptionally ingenious solution, we can revise that number up?

What if we'd behaved differently in the past when our oil to population ratio was similar to Norway's (or better)? And when's the 2nd best time to start?

Or is this more of a shrug we're nothing compared to those fortunate Scandinavians and that's why we just can't have nice things that they have no matter how nice it would be to have those things, stiff upper lip chaps, greatest country in the world situation?

> And defends the world with defense expenditures.

This is the "I have to wash my hair that night" of excuses -- plausibly true at some level yet studiedly ignoring such a wide latitude of optionality involved that it's clearly covering a refusal.

> Once that door is open, there will be no end to it.

Slippery slope fallacy. Tax rates move, but not monotonically.

For average US households effective income tax rates are more or less flat for the last generation or three. For high eaners? To say that the trend is downward doesn't cover it, it's a dramatic drop compared to midcentury era rates.

Wealth taxes in the countries that have them don't seem to demand an ever larger share.

If your strongest example is washington state a capital gains tax rate change within the same order of magnitude (that's still well below average effective income tax rates) you don't have much of a case.

Lots of unevisceratedly wealthy people live in states where the highest income tax bracket has rates over 10%. I'm sure the people with over a million a year in income will remain prosperous.

> If your estate is $1 billion, your estate tax will be:

Also you'll be dead and as such won't have continued control over any of your previous assets. Hence the earlier comment to the effect that one may as well complain to God about having to loosen ones grasp on them at death as rail against rendering unto caeser.

The natural "tax rate" on assets at death is 100%. Any smaller number than that is an affordance from the cooperation of society.

> said many times that billionaires should not exist

Perhaps he's right and it's hard to draw a solid straight line between that scale of personal profit and input. Perhaps he's wrong.

Still, as discussed, the most extreme concrete policy that Sanders has proposed is a wealth tax of 5%, and we've discussed why the dynamics of that are not existential threats to the wealth of anyone, much less worthy of the term "evisceration."

No one is proposing taking all the money from even the billionares. Most likely outcome of a 5% tax rate is stabilization.

> it won't raise the general standard of living.

And yet other societies have managed to produce better general standards of living (and higher rates of entrepreneurial success) via various policies including some different tax rates.

> You will also never have companies like SpaceX.

Companies exist to broadly source capital to bring to bear on an enterprise. So it stands to reason that companies like Space X will exist whether the capital comes from a wide pool of investors whose upside is limited somewhere below hyperwealth, or a contribution from a narrower set of investors with a higher concentration, at least as long as there's a credible upside.

Re: ATMs didn’t kill bank teller jobs, but the iPhone did

#569

I do not get what's special about banking apps as opposed to online banking. I've been doing online banking in the browser on a PC since before apps and I'm still doing it because dealing with data on a phone is painful compared to a PC. Is an app really that much easier to use?

For inexplicable reasons I have found that some operations are only possible through the app. Ok they are not inexplicable, there is the illusion that the App is more secure and thus some high impact stuff is only possible through the app. At least in my bank.

It is not an illusion, unless you are on Android

Re: ATMs didn’t kill bank teller jobs, but the iPhone did

#570

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's very true for healthcare (especially mental healthcare) and education today as well, because for most people, the choice isn't LLM vs. human attention - it's LLM vs. no access at all .

It's not like that's an inherently unsolvable problem without using LLMs

It's not inherently insolvable, it's just nearly impossible to solve because the alternative solutions tend to have "overhaul the global economy and human nature" as their prerequisite.

Pretty much all of humanity's tough problems, the ones we can't seem to make much progress on despite centuries or more of trying, are at their core coordination problems. We only really make progress on those when we can sidestep explicit coordination in some way. Every other kind of problem is usually amenable to technology, and we've solved most of them already, largely in the last 200 years.

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