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Global warming has accelerated significantly

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Re: Global warming has accelerated significantly

#561

Post by _whiteCaps_ »

fortedoesnthack wrote: post #370
jokoon wrote: post #147

Nothing will change until developed rich countries are starting to hurt. And I don't think it's going to hurt enough in 10 or 20 years. The pain will come slowly, people won't see it. It's like going back to the middle age so slowly, that the population don't realize or feel it. And honestly, wars and trump are making climate concerns so difficult to think about.

it depends where you live... I live in Japan now. One comment I hear often and see reflected in old TV shows is how different summers are already. 20-25 years ago it would have been considered a hot summer day around 30c. Now every summer day is 30c+. Also, a comment I hear often is that people didn't really need air conditioners back then. You definitely cannot get away with living in Tokyo without an air conditione…

Same thing here in Vancouver. I took a picture of my car's dash display reading 43*C during the heat dome in 2021!

Re: Global warming has accelerated significantly

#562

Post by jimnotgym »

marcosdumay wrote: post #294
jmcgough wrote: post #224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Over the past century, the US has produced more cumulative carbon emissions than any other country, and it's not even close. China is in the middle of a massive expansion in wind, solar, and electric vehicles. The US is burning even more coal to support AI, and has gutted much of its federal emission reduction efforts.

This changed on the last decade or so. It's close now. Of course, China has 5 times more people than the US, so they get a little bit of leeway. But they are close, and their emissions are growing. That said, yes, they are investing more than anybody else. And they are improving the technology we need more than anybody else. People talking about military intervention are full of shit, but we could use some diplomatic…

> and their emissions are growing.

I know nothing about it. I have read comments on this very comments section, with references, that say China's emissions are not growing. This is what makes this subject so hard for the average numbskull like me, so much misinformation.

Re: Global warming has accelerated significantly

#563

Post by muwtyhg »

crims0n wrote: post #480
lunias wrote: post #375

It's my understanding that if you look at a large enough historical time window, although warming has accelerated recently (and we are in part to blame); the Earth is still relatively cool compared to historical averages.

I don't know why you are getting downvoted, you are absolutely correct: https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2024/09/1...

Because from a human perspective, it doesn't matter. The planet used to be a ball of molten rock at one point, it doesn't mean we should shrug our shoulders at the thought of it returning to a molten state. It may be "natural" but it's not suitable for humans.

Re: Global warming has accelerated significantly

#565

Post by tsoukase »

imglorp wrote: post #482
sulam wrote: post #295

FWIW my personal assessment is that this acceleration is both real and largely out of our control. Models in the past did not attempt to account for non-anthropogenic carbon emissions, but as we experience further warming, most especially in the Arctic, feedback loops and tipping points mean that this (carbon emissions caused by “natural” processes) are becoming more evident. This is especially sensitive because a la…

> direct air capture is the primary escape hatch We MUST MUST MUST stop burning things. Stop it. - We are still mining and burning coal. This is incomprehensible. US, AU, etc Eg: https://www.nacoal.com/our-operations - We are still subsidizing oil to around $1T/year, not counting oil wars. Yes it will take some grid and storage upgrades (US) and continue to embrace renewables. It would be cheaper than the oil subsidy…

Stopping burning fuel now will return us centuries in the past, I suppose to about 1700. Twenty years ago it would return us to 1500. Then a handful of people had heating in their homes and a horse to travel. This will happen again if we stop burning now.

Re: Global warming has accelerated significantly

#566

Post by M95D »

epistasis wrote: post #559
jokoon wrote: post #147

Nothing will change until developed rich countries are starting to hurt. And I don't think it's going to hurt enough in 10 or 20 years. The pain will come slowly, people won't see it. It's like going back to the middle age so slowly, that the population don't realize or feel it. And honestly, wars and trump are making climate concerns so difficult to think about.

The energy situation is actually changing very quickly precisely because renewables and storage are so cheap. Building a new natural gas plant today is really hard to justify in most places in the world. Capitalism will actually save the day, because a bunch of capitalists advanced renewable technology to the point where it was cheap. The biggest impediment to change right now is actually political interference in de…

> Capitalism will actually save the day, because a bunch of capitalists advanced renewable technology to the point where it was cheap.

That "bunch of capitalists"... why are you avoiding the true word: "China"?

Re: Global warming has accelerated significantly

#567

Post by shrubby »

We could chop of a quarter of total emissions (directly + rewilding effect) by ending factory animal production and swapping to plant based.

Another quarter from the top 5 percent emissions that have practically nothing to do with the wellbeing, but only social comparison mechanisms (envy, herd mentality).

But for that humanity would need leaders that are not either idiots, corrupt or spineless and toothless.

But hey, I guess that's too much to ask, after all we're talking about unconscious reactive species that's only rumored to have brains or morals.

Re: Global warming has accelerated significantly

#568

Post by patmorgan23 »

tlogan wrote: post #293
jokoon wrote: post #147

Nothing will change until developed rich countries are starting to hurt. And I don't think it's going to hurt enough in 10 or 20 years. The pain will come slowly, people won't see it. It's like going back to the middle age so slowly, that the population don't realize or feel it. And honestly, wars and trump are making climate concerns so difficult to think about.

China creates about 30–35% of global emissions. India about 8% but it is climbing fast. What rich countries do is they just export their factories to other countries and say: look we do not pollute.

Just for reference China has about 17% of the world's population, and India has about 18%.

China has also been deploying lots of renewable and nuclear energy, and their carbon emissions actually falling.

Solar and wind have gotten so cheap we should be able to forgo more fossil fuel deployment in developing nations.

Re: Global warming has accelerated significantly

#569

Post by shadowgovt »

vixen99 wrote: post #376
shadowgovt wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At this point, one possible 50-years projection of outcomes here is that China eventually declares the US an existential threat to humanity's continued existence and deploys economic or military power to stop it unless the US gets its act together on carbon emissions. Can't build those AI datacenters if China has physically embargoed the chips. That may seem extreme, but the Chinese culture is more collectivist than…

And this? https://ourworldindata.org/profile/co2/china

Correct; they are currently a major polluter. They are also cognizant of that issue and taking concrete steps to transition their power dependency off of fossil fuel. I don't think the same can be said for the United States, sadly.

China currently emits per-capita co2 about half that of the US.

Re: Global warming has accelerated significantly

#570

Post by epistasis »

crystal_revenge wrote: post #530
bko wrote: post #409

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Nothing will change until developed rich countries are starting to hurt. Ironic OECD countries actually REDUCED their emissions based on a peak in 2007 and continue to do so. Not reduced as a percentage of GDP or adjusted for population growth, but reduced in absolute levels. It's all China, but I guess it's cool to blame things on developed countries. There are literally 100k deaths in Europe that can be prevented…

> Ironic OECD countries actually REDUCED their emissions based on a peak in 2007 and continue to do so. Our economies are built on oil burning somewhere else in the world. You can try to point the blame at China, but the wealth generated in the middle east selling them oil is a major part of the reason why US stock markets keep going up. If you forced China to use less fossil fuels you would personally feel a much la…

That's a bit out of date, it's likely that China has already peaked. And it's not oil but coal that they tend to burn.

Renewables are cheaper than coal and oil energy, so we will see an increase in quality of life as China electrifies, at least for those of us that import Chinese manufactured goods.

Oil is mostly for people's cars, for an unsustainable transit system that locks us in little boxes and kills all our salmon and is one of the greatest threats to the lives of our children. Getting rid of oil and coal is going to be a loooot easier than getting rid of our car infrastructure.

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