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Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is killed in Israeli strike, ending 36-year rule

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Re: Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is killed in Israeli strike, ending 36-year rule

#561

Post by bonsai_spool »

throwaway2037 wrote: post #527
suoloordi wrote: post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Iran is not like other countries in the region. Despite its shortcomings, it's a cohesive society. I'm certain that there will be no fracturing and a central authority will emerge.

> Iran is not like other countries in the region. Despite its shortcomings, it's a cohesive society. This is a weird comment. I would also describe Jordan, Oman, UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia as cohesive societies.

> I would also describe Jordan, Oman, UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia as cohesive societies.

I don’t know much about the region; is it incorrect to say that the nations you listed (excepting Jordan) are collections of fiefdoms with a relatively weak central power? To OP’s point, that is not how I view Iran

Re: Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is killed in Israeli strike, ending 36-year rule

#562

Post by tim333 »

all_factz wrote: post #340
tim333 wrote: post #251

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd probably think about which side is going to end up in power and try to get along with whoever that is. The US's demonstrated willingness to kill the leader will probably have an influence there.

“Which side”? What other side is there in Iran? You think there’s some shadow government that can realistically topple the mullahs from within? The only way the Shah comes back is with US boots on the ground, which would be a disaster for other reasons. Until that happens this is just reckless action that makes the regime even more radical than it already is.

I'm not sure - I'm not that up on all that but there's the

>coalition of liberal and nationalist political parties selected Reza Pahlavi to lead a transitional government until the realisation of democratic elections https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_opposition#:~:text=On%...

thing. Maybe if enough Iranian people back that?

Re: Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is killed in Israeli strike, ending 36-year rule

#563

Post by jmyeet »

1a527dd5 wrote: post #86

I wonder how old the rest of the commentators are. I watched the Shock and Awe campaign. I watched Saddam fall. I remember thinking this is great. Years later, I understand it was a complete folly. Removing Saddam in itself was good but what it did the wider region was not good.

We created Saddam Hussein. He was our foil against Iran. We propped up a war that killed over a million Iraqis and Iranians in the 1980s for no net strategic result.

And why did we want to punish Iran? Because the fundamentalist regime overthrew our puppet (the Shah).

And how did the Shah come to be a dictator, essentially? Because we overthrew the liberal democracy Iran had in 1953 at the behest of the british because Iran had wanted to control their own oil and BP wasn't happy.

Even the fundamentalist regime in Iran is kind of America's fault. Saddam Hussein expelled Khomenei from Iraq in 1978 (IIRC) because when it became clear that Iran was lost, we wanted the fundamentalists to take over instead of the communists because we didn't want Iran to fall into the Soviet sphere of influence.

It's also a pretty similar story with Osama bin Laden.

As payback for Soviet support for North Vietnam, we supplied arms to the rebels in Afghanistan after the USSR invaded. Supplying Stinger SAMs to the mujahadeen was particularly devastating and these included Osama bin Laden.

Isn't it weird that all this foreign interference always go badly and all these former puppets somehow end up becoming huge problems for us later? When will we learn, exactly?

It's also worth noting that there was a strong desire in American policy circles to overthrow Saddam well before 9/11. 9/11 and the fake WMD story just became the excuse. For example, in 1998 a bunch of people sent a letter to then President Bill Clinton urging him to invade Iraq and topple Saddam [1]. Just look at the signatories on that letter and what part they played in the War on Terror.

[1]: https://zfacts.com/zfacts.com/metaPage/lib/98-Rumsfeld-Iraq....

Re: Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is killed in Israeli strike, ending 36-year rule

#564

Post by megous »

hakavlad wrote: post #503

[flagged]

You support organization that's on a UN international blacklist of organizations that intentionally harm children. Have some shame.

I will never forget the thousands of little children that IDF burned to death, cut off their legs and arms, separate they heads or just degutted. Bleh.

IDF taught me that you can cut off both legs of a toddler at the hips and it will still live and scream, and will not die instantly from shock and hypovolemia.

Fuck scum that support this organization for whatever reason.

Re: Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is killed in Israeli strike, ending 36-year rule

#566

Post by somenameforme »

Cipater wrote: post #454

I work with and know a lot of Shia (non-Iranian) Muslims and listening to them talk about this assassination I'm convinced that the likelihood of attempted terror attacks against the US has increased significantly. The non-Iranian part is key. Millions of muslims around the world viewed the Iranian theocracy as the only power in the world fighting for Islam. They are devastated.

The most interesting thing to me is that he was apparently assassinated while working at his office. It's not like the US/Israeli actions were a secret, yet he seemingly made no effort to secure himself. It's hard not to see this as an intentional martyrdom. So it will be interesting to see whether his calculations were correct, or whether the US' were.

The one thing I think must be true is that I can't imagine an 86 year old cleric was an especially effective leader. So assassinating him is quite the gamble. I'd love to know what the military's chatbots thought about this idea.

Re: Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is killed in Israeli strike, ending 36-year rule

#567

Post by Cipater »

kjfarm wrote: post #540
Cipater wrote: post #454

I work with and know a lot of Shia (non-Iranian) Muslims and listening to them talk about this assassination I'm convinced that the likelihood of attempted terror attacks against the US has increased significantly. The non-Iranian part is key. Millions of muslims around the world viewed the Iranian theocracy as the only power in the world fighting for Islam. They are devastated.

I think the responses are very diverse throughout the region. Got example, in Karachi protestors gathered outside a consulate https://apnews.com/article/pakistan-protesters-attacked-us-c... But inside Tehran (and in my neighborhood of D.C.) there have been celebrations https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/28/world/middleeast/iran-kha...

Any celebrations are an indicator but are far from the entire picture.

Wouldn't there be celebrations in the US if Trump died? What conclusions would you draw from that?

Re: Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is killed in Israeli strike, ending 36-year rule

#568

Post by CoastalCoder »

markus_zhang wrote: post #528
Cipater wrote: post #454

I work with and know a lot of Shia (non-Iranian) Muslims and listening to them talk about this assassination I'm convinced that the likelihood of attempted terror attacks against the US has increased significantly. The non-Iranian part is key. Millions of muslims around the world viewed the Iranian theocracy as the only power in the world fighting for Islam. They are devastated.

The "good" part is that Sunni Muslims probably won't have the same feeling, or do they? But I agree with the assessment. I'd definitely avoid large public events. Darn the world is becoming more and more chaotic and we are just waiting for China to put up the last piece to make it into 19th Europe.

> China to put up the last piece to make it into 19th Europe.

Could you elaborate for us non-historians?

Re: Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is killed in Israeli strike, ending 36-year rule

#569

Post by Cipater »

somenameforme wrote: post #566
Cipater wrote: post #454

I work with and know a lot of Shia (non-Iranian) Muslims and listening to them talk about this assassination I'm convinced that the likelihood of attempted terror attacks against the US has increased significantly. The non-Iranian part is key. Millions of muslims around the world viewed the Iranian theocracy as the only power in the world fighting for Islam. They are devastated.

The most interesting thing to me is that he was apparently assassinated while working at his office. It's not like the US/Israeli actions were a secret, yet he seemingly made no effort to secure himself. It's hard not to see this as an intentional martyrdom. So it will be interesting to see whether his calculations were correct, or whether the US' were. The one thing I think must be true is that I can't imagine an 86…

>I'd love to know what the military's chatbots thought about this idea.

What a mad world we're hurtling ourselves into.

Re: Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is killed in Israeli strike, ending 36-year rule

#570

Post by jmyeet »

inglor_cz wrote: post #544
jmyeet wrote: post #542

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People should never treat the diaspora as representative of any population other than the diaspora. This issue comes up with Cuba a lot. A lot of Cuban-Americans hate Castro. Why? Because they were the upper-middle class to wealthy under Batista. This history becomes almost comically distorted. Senator Ted Cruz said that he hates communists because his father was tortured by... Batista [1]. So let me give you an exam…

"That's going to be incredibly bad for Iranians as you'll either get a fail-state like Libya, Syria or Somalia (which is what Israel wants) or you'll simply get an American puppet." Iran is one of the oldest continuing political units in the world, clocking over 2500 years as an organized state. I think you seriously underestimate the capabilities and know-how of the Iranians by expecting them to behave the same way…

Did you miss the part where I said that Iran is not going to fall apart like some seem to think?
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