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OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation

techcrunch.com

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Re: OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation

#561

Post by eternauta3k »

harry8 wrote: post #513
danielparsons wrote: post #410

Earlier quoted context omitted.

google search definitely has a moat. people build their websites to optimize for google's algorithm, therefore google users see better results -> google gets more users -> websites optimize for google -> repeat. Personally I never bother with 'bing SEO' or 'bing ppc ads'.

google search took over becuse all search engines sucked and theirs didn't in a few important ways. AND by default, ads over to the side, clean interface. Now all search engines suck and google's sucks just as bad or worse than the rest. If someone were to follow the original google playbook and make a search engine that helped people find things (eg by respecting the query syntax rather than making 'helpful' suggest…

Kagi works quite well.

Re: OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation

#562

Post by himata4113 »

aurareturn wrote: post #554
himata4113 wrote: post #423

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"UBS downgraded the US stock market" happened today for a reason and you're implying that the US dollar lost 1000% of it's value since less than a decade ago? 1/10th of what it is worth today?

Where did you get 1000%? S&P500 is up 3.7x since 2016.

my bad, I meant the evaluation of any single company

Re: OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation

#563

Post by soulofmischief »

a_victorp wrote: post #487
SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's this kind of dynamic that makes me pull back on my otherwise pretty AI-forward stance. There's an entire community of people who passionately believe it's obvious and undeniable that Elon Musk has solved problems that he has not solved and his companies deliver things they don't deliver. Tesla is absolutely unambiguous in their marketing material ( https://www.tesla.com/fsd ) that they do not have autonomous dri…

You definitely would not know if you were, no one does. I think the healthy position is to assume you are wrong and trying to find evidence of why you are wrong For instance,I'm very skeptical of AI and, from experience, do not think that the current models are worth the cost, but I'm always in HN trying to find arguments/people that use AI successfully to prove that I'm wrong

I know multiple developers paying thousands of months on AI tooling.

I don't need to convince you it's worth it for you, but it's easy to see that other people have found a way to make it worth it for themselves. I would definitely not spend as much as I personally do if it wasn't worth it to me.

Re: OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation

#564

Post by fauigerzigerk »

chemmail wrote: post #535
est31 wrote: post #488

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But the problem is that Toys R Us is spending $15, 20, or maybe even $50 (who knows?) to sell a $10 toy. It's like how Uber and Airbnb in the early days were burning loads of cash to build market share. People went to these services because they were cheaper. Then they would increase prices once they had a comfortable position. OpenAI is also in a rapidly transforming field where there are a lot of cost reductions…

A little bit, but the scale is another magnitude higher. I just saw a chart yesterday that shows Uber burning $18B, Tesla burning $9B, and Netflix burning 11B before reaching profitability. Open AI so far spent $218 Billion.

The opportunity is disproportionately greater as well though.

Unfortunately that doesn't change the fact even a small miscalculation could have an enormous impact. We are approaching levels of risk comparable in size to the subprime crisis of 2008.

Re: OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation

#565

Post by intrasight »

robotpepi wrote: post #559
intrasight wrote: post #456

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> get cheaper to run Irrelevant. The model is the moat > most companies don’t care about that. Wrong. They will use the model that gives them an edge. If they are using a PhD but their competitors are using Einstein, they will lose. > center a div For sure a common use case, but is bot what the CEO is concerned about with AI.

> If they are using a PhD but their competitors are using god what are these assumptions

More analogy than assumption. And admittedly a poor analogy.

Re: OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation

#567

Post by shruubi »

onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #325
7777777phil wrote: post #287

$730B pre-money for a company where each model is roughly 2x profitable on its own, but each next model costs 10x the last. The whole thing only works if scaling keeps delivering. Research (Sara Hooker et al.) is not encouraging on that front, compact models already outperform massive predecessors on downstream tasks while scaling laws only predict pre-training loss reliably. Wrote about both the per-model math and t…

> each model is roughly 2x profitable on its own, but each next model costs 10x the last. The whole thing only works if scaling keeps delivering. This is a decent argument, but it's not the death knell you think. Models are getting 99% more efficient every 3 years - to get the same amount of output, combined with hardware and (mostly) software upgrades - you can use 99% less power. The number of applications where AI…

> Models are getting 99% more efficient every 3 years - to get the same amount of output, combined with hardware and (mostly) software upgrades - you can use 99% less power.

This is such a poor argument for a number of reasons.

1. Three years ago is basically when the "AI race" really kicked off amongst the frontier companies. You're effectively comparing a car from the 1920/30's to a modern car.

2. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance. You can't just say that LLM's will grow and improve at a fixed rate for all time, that isn't how they or anything else works in the real world.

3. Since it's an open secret that companies like Anthropic and OpenAI are running their models at a loss, a static 99% cheaper every three years arc still puts these companies at a net negative position unless compute, energy and water all somehow start getting 99% cheaper every three years.

Re: OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation

#568

Post by cylemons »

tarsinge wrote: post #522
est31 wrote: post #488

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But the problem is that Toys R Us is spending $15, 20, or maybe even $50 (who knows?) to sell a $10 toy. It's like how Uber and Airbnb in the early days were burning loads of cash to build market share. People went to these services because they were cheaper. Then they would increase prices once they had a comfortable position. OpenAI is also in a rapidly transforming field where there are a lot of cost reductions…

Uber and Airbnb have network effects. You cant increase price when there is no cost in switching.

I dont see how network effects applies to Uber/Airbnb because nothing stops drivers/hosts from listing their property in multiple such apps
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