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American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

kielinstitut.de

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Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#561

Post by groundzeros2015 »

kryogen1c wrote: post #168

Almost all the comments acting like this is some truth bombshell, like people in trumpistan all thought raising tariffs magically made the us economy better. This is a straw man, no? Tariffs are a mid-long term strategy to encourage onshoring business, for reasons including military, national security, and political influence on foreign powers. This is a complicated topic involving the global economy and evolving int…

also the importer, which the article says does absorb cost, is also often an arm of the foreign company.

The article just says it doesn’t show up when shipping containers change hands.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#562

Post by ezst »

koolba wrote: post #271
bartread wrote: post #56

I'm glad they've done the work here and put a figure on it - the impact absolutely needed to be quantified - but I also have to say... to the surprise of absolutely no-one with even the most basic grasp of how economies function. People, lots of people, lots of people who have a really deep understanding of national and global economics (unlike me), have been warning about this since talk of tariffs became common cur…

> What were you thinking? What was going through your heads? I'm genuinely curious. I’m adamantly against all forms of illegal immigration. There are plenty of people around the world that want to come here and are willing to wait in line. I’m perfectly fine with the intentions and methods of the current administration. I’m in favor of doing whatever we can to increase our manufacturing base for the future. I’m perfe…

[flagged]

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#563

Post by jacquesm »

Glyptodon wrote: post #395
0xy wrote: post #282

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not unconvinced by the idea that businesses in the US dulled inflation by pulling forward stock purchases and stockpiling goods. But 9 months worth of goods? SMBs can't afford to do that. Large enterprises don't have the warehousing capacity to do that. Could you imagine Amazon increasing their stock on hand by 30%? Maybe. Could you imagine them quadrupling their stock on hand? Seems unlikely. Impacts should've s…

I don't know, it seems like there has been a fair amount of reporting about closing or struggling SMBs and farms, and there's also the economy changing to make more and more of the spending come from upper income, which will be less price sensitive and the question of whether various things could have gone down in price otherwise. The popular zeitgeist seems to reject the inflation numbers because of perceiving it to…

And then there is the bit where the reporting agencies can no longer be trusted.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#564

Post by hallole »

mirekrusin wrote: post #280
bartread wrote: post #56

I'm glad they've done the work here and put a figure on it - the impact absolutely needed to be quantified - but I also have to say... to the surprise of absolutely no-one with even the most basic grasp of how economies function. People, lots of people, lots of people who have a really deep understanding of national and global economics (unlike me), have been warning about this since talk of tariffs became common cur…

Moving production to US, ie. they were thinking about 2nd order implications, in other words works as expected?

Yeah essentially this. In my mental model, tariffs give an advantage to domestic suppliers / penalize foreign suppliers, and thus encourage domestic production by making it more viable. And bringing manufacturing back to the U.S. has been a pretty big GOP selling point.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#566

Post by brightball »

onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #266
PaulRobinson wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A lot of Americans believed the guy they wanted to believe in, because they didn't want to believe the people they didn't want to believe in. You're assuming that modern politics across most of the World has something to do with rational, logical thought. Russia, China, Europe, the US, the Middle East - they are all in a quagmire of irrational fractures between the public and the political classes who want power/cont…

You are using "believed" - past tense. Facts change nothing. This report means nothing. These people still believe. The report is wrong. They are right. The truth is whatever they want it to be, not something out of their control.

In fairness to this report, the report is about tariffs and their impact on...imported goods affected directly by tariffs isn't it?

From an overall economic policy standpoint, missing facts that provide context are pretty important especially when you're trying to paint an entire side of the isle as completely brainwashed. Nobody can have a conversation when we create straw men to argue with.

Other relevant context:

- The US trade deficit just hit its lowest points since 2009 due to decreased imports and increased exports, which rose by record amounts.

https://www.reuters.com/business/us-october-trade-deficit-lo...

- US Q4 2025 GDP grew by 5.5%, outpacing China at 4.5%. For context, over the last 25 years China averages 8% per year while the US average 2.1% per year.

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/top-50-economies-real-gdp-g...

Q4 forecast https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

- US inflation has continued to slow at 2.7% with core inflation at 2.6%, continuing the trend from the last 2 years under Biden after a huge 9.1% inflation spike in 2022.

https://usafacts.org/answers/what-is-the-current-inflation-r...

- US gas prices continued to trend downward by national average, with significant regional drops. I live in South Carolina and filled up for $2.39 / gallon a couple of days ago.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/leafhandler.ashx?n=pet&s=e...

- The price of eggs have come down significantly, to their lowest rates in 4 years.

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eggs-us

- And the US stock market is at all time highs right now.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/stock-market#:~:t...

There's a lot of economic doom and gloom in the comments section here that's simply not reflected in the overall economic numbers. It's not perfect, but it's trending in the right direction.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#567

Post by watwut »

throw101010 wrote: post #318
floren wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you stretch your imagination to a scenario in which a hostile administration, eager to shut down critical reporting, might declare that various outlets are engaging in fake news and must thus be shut down? Let's be glad a precedent wasn't set.

I can, and I've specifically said "guilty/liable", meaning that people will go to the highest court available to them to defend their rights. If in the last instance they are still found guilty/liable, they should suffer the consequences I've mentioned. These legal decisions, by multiple courts/juries, if you can't trust them anymore you have already lost in terms of democracy/republic. I still believe the SCOTUS is…

> still believe the SCOTUS is trying to uphold the principles in the Constitution, for now

Republicans on court are very clearly pusuing agenda that has nothing to do with that.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#568

Post by lovlar »

Aurornis wrote: post #456
lovlar wrote: post #323

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One of the main reasons we end up with populist leaders who make decisions not in the interest of their population, but in service of their own pursuit of power, is social media and the attention economy. If people stopped spending hours each day scrolling through Instagram, TikTok, and Facebook feeds, media incentives would change. Journalism would become more thorough and responsible, rather than optimized for outr…

> If people stopped spending hours each day scrolling through Instagram, TikTok, and Facebook feeds, The age groups who spend the most time on TikTok and Instagram are the least likely to have voted for this administration. There were populist demagogues getting elected before social media and cell phones, too. This isn’t a modern thing. I know everyone wants to use this moment in politics to blame their own pet peev…

I dont hink doom scrollers are the root cause, but I belive in that we would have a better political debate and better successful politicians if people who spend a lot of time in feeds were aware of the income they generate for platform companies, and how this fuels the attention economy, which in turn amplifies these problems. One of them being: it incentivizes politicians to be populistic in order to be heard through the noise and be successful.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#569

Post by brightball »

LexiMax wrote: post #535
brightball wrote: post #325

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t usually bother reacting strongly to anything on HN but that is a complete fabrication.

Is this a bot? Is this someone telling an unpopular truth on an alt account? Is this someone telling a fabrication on an alt account? The best part about Hacker News is that you can't really know. It's a problem inherent to the kind of social space HN is trying to be; open registration, and lax control over abuse of user moderation tools.

Real person. Live in the south. Kamala being a woman had no impact on her election chances. Most people in my circles were big Haley fans.

Claiming that half the country wouldn't vote for a woman because Kamala didn't win and couldn't possibly have had any other faults as a candidate is very bot like, however.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#570

Post by uniqueuid »

lingrush4 wrote: post #188
uniqueuid wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nitpick: The Kiel Institute is not a think tank in the sense that people would understand the word. It is a federally funded research organization (part of the family of Leibniz institutes) similar to a university but without teaching. Here's a list of the others [1]. These are independent, high-quality research institutions without political money or a designated political agenda. [1] https://www.leibniz-gemeinschaf…

The fact that they don't have an agenda written into their charter doesn't mean they don't have an agenda. Basically every American news organization is an example of this.

While your assessment may be true in many contexts, this is not one of them.

American hyper polarization does not permeate other countries in the same degree and German academia is actually full of sober, level-headed, nuanced people.

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