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The future of software development is software developers

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Re: The future of software development is software developers

#561

Post by zcw100 »

mcbishop wrote: post #486
compiler-devel wrote: post #479

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nearly nobody cares about the load on “national and local government resources, local utility capacity, and roadway infrastructure” for any other day-to-day activity. Why should they care about the same for AI which for most people is “out there online” somewhere? Related my, crypto bros worried about electricity usage only so far as its expense went and whether they could move closer to hydro dams.

The parent comment's point is that we _should_ care because cheap frontier-model access (that many of us have quickly become hopelessly dependent on) might be temporary.

It's amazing that anyone that has seen anything in technology in the last 30 years can say, "better be careful. They might stop subsidizing this and then it's gunna get expensive!" is ridiculous. I can buy a 1Tb flash drive for $100. Please, even with every reason to amortize the hardware over the longest horizon possible are only going out 6 years. 64K should be enough for anyone right?

Re: The future of software development is software developers

#562

Post by leptons »

threethirtytwo wrote: post #531
leptons wrote: post #510

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>AI is ALREADY going to change the world. Nice slop response. This is the same thing said about blockchain and NFTs, same schtick, different tech. The only thing "AI" has done is convince some people that it's a magical being that knows everything. Your comments seem to be somewhere on that spectrum. And, sure what if it isn't changing the world for the better, and actually makes things much worse? You're probably ok…

>This is nonsense. No AI is going to produce what someone wants without telling it exactly what to do and how to do it, so yes, it will always need hand holding, unless you like slurping up slop. I don't know you, if you aren't a bot, you might just be satisfied with slop? It's a race to the bottom, and it's not going to end up the way you think it will. You're not thinking clearly. A couple years ago we didn't even…

I use AI every day, and it's honestly crap. No it isn't significantly improving, it's hitting a wall. Every new model release is getting less and less good, so no, the "trendline" is not going up as much as you seem to think it is. It's plateaued. The only way "AI" is going to change the world is if stupid people put it in places that it really shouldn't be, thinking it will solve problems and not create even more problems.

Re: The future of software development is software developers

#563

Post by Ma8ee »

zcw100 wrote: post #561
mcbishop wrote: post #486

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The parent comment's point is that we _should_ care because cheap frontier-model access (that many of us have quickly become hopelessly dependent on) might be temporary.

It's amazing that anyone that has seen anything in technology in the last 30 years can say, "better be careful. They might stop subsidizing this and then it's gunna get expensive!" is ridiculous. I can buy a 1Tb flash drive for $100. Please, even with every reason to amortize the hardware over the longest horizon possible are only going out 6 years. 64K should be enough for anyone right?

Yes, hardware has become cheaper, but services all enshittify the moment the investors start to ask for some return.

Re: The future of software development is software developers

#564

Post by Ma8ee »

Terretta wrote: post #555
mcbishop wrote: post #486

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The parent comment's point is that we _should_ care because cheap frontier-model access (that many of us have quickly become hopelessly dependent on) might be temporary.

If expert devs have junior devs to assign code to, that you review and integrate, do they become “hopelessly dependent” on junior devs? My experience of expert devs is those who are happy to have extra leverage are not slowed much by having to do it themselves. In no cases have I seen experts become “dependent” on the junior devs.

They do quite soon after they have become managers or product owners or “architects”.

Re: The future of software development is software developers

#565

Post by Ma8ee »

XenophileJKO wrote: post #455
dawnerd wrote: post #438

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Same with Airbnb. Oh and Moviepass. Those were the days.

Except none of those cost structures are based primarily on a resource that gets cheaper over time.. a.k.a. compute.

The energy demand doesn’t decrease.

Re: The future of software development is software developers

#566

Post by merlincorey »

rcbdev wrote: post #538
merlincorey wrote: post #456

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It sounds like you use your personal Claude Code subscription for work of your employer, but that is not something I would ever consider doing personally so I imagine I must be mistaken. Can you elaborate slightly on what you pay for personally and what your employer pays for with regards to using LLMs for Enterprise ERP?

Freelancers regularly use tools such as Copilot and Claude, it's always handled professionally and in agreement with their customers. I've seen other freelancers do it plenty of times in the last 1-2 years at my customer sites. Why so narrow minded?

I'm inquisitive not narrow minded.

The GP didn't mention anything about freelancing so unless you know them or stalked them you are perhaps being narrow minded here.

Re: The future of software development is software developers

#567

Post by kgwxd »

tomlue wrote: post #31
kgwxd wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

LLMs are Kraft Singles. Stuff that only kind of looks like cheese. Once you know it's in there, someone has to inspect, and sign-off on, the entire wheel for any credible semblance of safety.

how sure are you that an llm won't be better at reviewing code for safety than most humans, and eventually, most experts?

They probably already can for a lot of things, but "Safety" is really about accountability when things go wrong. As a society, I hope we don't end up at "AI isn't perfect, but it's better than people on average, sorry if it failed you, good luck with that."

Re: The future of software development is software developers

#568

Post by 1718627440 »

embedding-shape wrote: post #550
1718627440 wrote: post #522

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But people don't stay novices after years/decades. Of course when you write the boilerplate for the 20x time maybe you still accept that, but when you write it for the 2000x time, I bet you do the lazy thing and just copy it. > cannot for legal reasons or ... Sure, you can't copy trade secrets, but that's also not the boilerplate part. Copying e.g. a class hierarchy and renaming all the names and replacing the class…

> But people don't stay novices after years/decades Some absolutely do. I know programmers who entered web development at the same time as me, and now after decades they're still creating typical CRUD applications for whatever their client today is, using the same frameworks and languages. If it works, makes enough money and you're happy, why change? > Copying e.g. a class hierarchy and renaming all the names and rep…

> "abstract into a FOSS library and use in this project"

That is not what I meant. My idea was more like "copy ten lines from this project, then lines from that project, the class from here, but replace every line before the commit ...".

I shouldn't have used the word library, as I did not mean output from the linker, but rather a colloquial meaning of a loose connection of snippets.

Re: The future of software development is software developers

#569

Post by solumunus »

merlincorey wrote: post #456
solumunus wrote: post #288

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s crazy how different my experience is. I think perhaps it’s incredibly important what programming language you are using, what your project and architecture is like. Agents are making an extraordinary contribution to my productivity. If they jacked my Claude Code subscription up to $500/month I would be upset but almost certainly would keep paying it, that’s how much value it brings. I’m in enterprise ERP.

It sounds like you use your personal Claude Code subscription for work of your employer, but that is not something I would ever consider doing personally so I imagine I must be mistaken. Can you elaborate slightly on what you pay for personally and what your employer pays for with regards to using LLMs for Enterprise ERP?

I own my own business.

Re: The future of software development is software developers

#570

Post by zaphirplane »

Mongoose wrote: post #420
solaire_oa wrote: post #356

Most people in this thread are quibbling about the exact degree of utility LLMs provide, which a tedious argument. What's more interesting to me is, per the article, the concern regarding everyone who is leaning into LLMs without realizing (or downplaying) the exorbitant, externalized cost. Our current LLM usage is being subsidized to the point of being free by outside investment. One day when the well runs dry, you…

I always liken it to using Uber in ~2012. It was fun to get around major metro areas for dirt cheap. But then prices rose dramatically over the next decade+ as the company was forced to wean itself off of VC subsidies.

It’s common since year dot fir new businesses to compete on price to attract customers and gain market share. It wasn’t invented by uber
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