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Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

economist.com

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Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#561

Post by shagie »

red-iron-pine wrote: post #523
lumost wrote: post #470

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We really need a regulation on job openings being real. Each interview costs the candidate roughly one PTO day. Mandating something like a minimum of 40:1 interviews to extended offers should correct for at least the worst offenses.

Then I'm not posting job openings at all, and I'm working my personal network extra hard to get a pipeline of actual candidates setup. And it's not just the ATS doing this -- oooodles of goobers who are nowhere near qualified are using AI and slamming the hiring pipelines. I'm already leaning on the personal networks because of that, anyway, but Parent Poster's idea just means I push for that explicitly instead of in…

> ... And it's not just the ATS doing this -- oooodles of goobers who are nowhere near qualified are using AI and slamming the hiring pipelines. I'm already leaning on the personal networks because of that, ...

Patrick Boyle : AI and the Death of the Career Ladder (Nov 29, 2025) - https://youtu.be/FsfgbTBIP6M?si=KYd8fkX8lrigGVmT&t=610

> In the graduate job market, the "goods" are job applications. When employers are flooded with thousands of AI-generated, indistinguishable cover letters, they lose the ability to identify the high-quality candidates who invested time and effort. The signal is drowned out by noise. Just as buyers in Akerlof's market stopped buying used cars, employers are stopping the open hiring process. They retreat to offline networks and nepotism to find people they feel they can trust. The issue is that if everyone sounds perfect on paper, the only signal left is a personal introduction.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#562

Post by raw_anon_1111 »

godelski wrote: post #557
raw_anon_1111 wrote: post #546

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have had 10 jobs over 30 years and I am now at only the third company where I gave two shits about the company’s success or saw it more than just a stepping stone to my n+1 company. I agree with you completely. They can just keep giving me cost of living raises and respect my experience and opinions (not saying they always have to go along with them) and I will be the last person here if they shut the lights off. I…

I think that's an important thing to note here, where the loyalty lies. Viewing from the lens of Pournelle's Iron Law of Bureaucracy it's clear you're loyal to the goals of the company more than the organization of company. Which in that case yes, I agree those are the best employees

You just made me do a deep dive on “Pournelle's Iron Law of Bureaucracy”.

I had to think about this. The three companies I’ve actually cared about were those that I had already “won” the organizational rat race within my definition of winning. The first I was leading their largest project only because near the end, they had laid everyone else off. “Winning” was staying employed until the market picked back up after 2009. The company went out of business late 2011. I stayed until the bitter end and then did a contract with the customer that I had been working with.

The second I was already the de facto cloud architect and I “threatened” my CTO that I would quit if they ever made me a team lead. I only got that because I volunteered for the initiatives and I stuck to it until I figured out what I was doing and did a lot of research. The company only had 60 people at its height including project managers, managers, QA, analysts, sales and developers.

The current company, I’m already at the top IC level and have the highest bill rate as a US based consultant. I was bought in at that level. I’ve repeatedly asked my manager what my goals should be a s he said basically - keep making the customers happy and bringing in money through being billable.

The others I was a cog in the wheel and would have had to play the politics game to get ahead. I’ve always sucked at that.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#563

Post by reactordev »

bluGill wrote: post #559
jpadkins wrote: post #518

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is bad advice. Max out 401k early. Compounding growth is how you get rich / FI. The earlier you start, the more time to compound.

I have known several people who died before they reached 50. I have known a number of others who retired early because the doctor (correctly) said their cancer is incurable - they had 9 months to enjoy all that savings. I knew someone who planed a great retirement, and her health declined such that even though she lived to 76 (just under average) her entire retirement was spent making regular trips to the hospital an…

In all of those cases, all of that 401k money is freely available to use. They would be dead if it wasn’t for the fact they saved and had it. How hard is this to understand? It’s designed to trap your money on purpose so you save it because you’ll end up spending it and not having the resources for your health in the end.

Besides, once you have a healthy 401k, you’ll realize there’s things you can do with it in the short term. Like borrow for a down payment. Use it for hospital bills. Funerals. Hardship withdrawals. Even a Roth has this. Saving vs spending will always be the story of the grasshopper and the ants.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#564

Post by eudamoniac »

AIorNot wrote: post #260

Well as a single datum: After I got laid off in late 2023 I had a devil of a time finding work (despite having AI experience) to the point my unemployment ran out - And I was 20 years as a dev and tech lead and full stack, (never had trouble finding work) including stints as a leading EM and CTO, I’ve been an industry award winning innovation lead,a digital studio director, switching tech stacks and cloud certs all m…

I don't mean this as a judgement; I am genuinely curious: with a career like that, how are you out of money after twelve months? Do you have unusual expenses? I am 31, currently making $180k (the most I've ever made) as a bog standard 'senior SWE', and I have nearly a million dollars. I am not frugal, I don't think; I just bought a $900 pair of sunglasses last week, and that wasn't a huge outlier expense. I have at least twenty years of savings right now. What is eating up your (and any onlookers', if you care to comment) budget?

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#565

Post by LightBug1 »

tayo42 wrote: post #121
master_crab wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Black Friday did not set records. Bloomberg stated that it was up 4.1%, but that was not inflation adjusted. So it was just slightly higher than flat. Not necessarily a bad thing…but not great either. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-29/black-fri...

Doesn't black Friday kind of suck now and for the last few years? There's sales all of the time, and there's all those open secrets about black Friday skus now.

I found BF week was "ok" ... found a few genuine bargains ... but Cyber Monday really sucked ... I saw absolutely nothing new in terms of wow prices ... n=1

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#566

Post by askafriend »

eudamoniac wrote: post #564
AIorNot wrote: post #260

Well as a single datum: After I got laid off in late 2023 I had a devil of a time finding work (despite having AI experience) to the point my unemployment ran out - And I was 20 years as a dev and tech lead and full stack, (never had trouble finding work) including stints as a leading EM and CTO, I’ve been an industry award winning innovation lead,a digital studio director, switching tech stacks and cloud certs all m…

I don't mean this as a judgement; I am genuinely curious: with a career like that, how are you out of money after twelve months? Do you have unusual expenses? I am 31, currently making $180k (the most I've ever made) as a bog standard 'senior SWE', and I have nearly a million dollars. I am not frugal, I don't think; I just bought a $900 pair of sunglasses last week, and that wasn't a huge outlier expense. I have at l…

I bet poor investment planning and low-paying roles despite the years of experience.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#567

Post by guywithahat »

rhinoceraptor wrote: post #20

From my experience, it's grim at the moment for software developer jobs. I got laid off in August and it's been rough. I'm in my early 30s so I can't compare it to 2008, but I've been laid off before and I've never seen it this bad.

I think it's largely industry dependent. Robotics/embedded/etc is actually doing quite well, lots of hiring in space and other fields. More big-data focused fields aren't hiring as much, and it's going to be even harder if you're applying for more senior/VP roles

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#568

Post by reactordev »

ryandrake wrote: post #545
lotsofpulp wrote: post #519

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>If you are offered a 401k, you have the means to max it out. Given rent, saving for house downpayment, student loan payments, auto loan payments, and possible childcare/healthcare costs, I don’t think we live in the same reality (based on income statistics). Perhaps you are only referring to doctors/software engineers/lawyers/IB/PE employees? >I’m not telling you to forgo partying. I’m telling you to pay yourself fi…

> Given rent, saving for house downpayment, student loan payments, auto loan payments, and possible childcare/healthcare costs, I don’t think we live in the same reality (based on income statistics). These things all come after savings, not before. If you can't afford them using post-saving money, then you need to get a better job, or a cheaper living conditions. Easier said than done, I totally agree, especially now…

They don’t want to hear it. They don’t understand because they haven’t hit middle aged with nothing. Experience is one hell of a teacher and I hope these young professionals realize what’s at stake. There’s no hand outs.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#570

Post by jiveturkey »

j-bos wrote: post #399
donatj wrote: post #311

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The number of just straight out NO's I've gotten has been surprising and disheartening. I've been a developer for 20 years and genuinely don't think I've gotten an outright "no" before this year. Usually just no response. I've gotten maybe eight or nine actual rejections this year. It's honestly worse, emotionally. Ideally I want a job outside my wheelhouse to learn and move forward, but it seems like no one these da…

Have you tried jobs.now ? In theory those are positions legitimately looking to be filled.

they aren't. those are market tests, not open reqs.
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