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AGI fantasy is a blocker to actual engineering

tomwphillips.co.uk

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Re: AGI fantasy is a blocker to actual engineering

#561
post #521
post #12

Tip for AI skeptics: skip the data center water usage argument. At this point I think it harms your credibility - numbers like "millions of liters of water annually" (from the linked article) sound scary when presented without context, but if you compare data centers to farmland or even golf courses they're minuscule. Other energy usage figures, air pollution, gas turbines, CO2 emissions etc are fine - but if you com…

Update on the update: I asked Andy Masley (author of this piece https://andymasley.substack.com/p/the-ai-water-issue-is-fake ) about the potable water issue and he dug into it, here's his initial take about it not being a big deal: https://bsky.app/profile/andymasley.bsky.social/post/3m5mqce... Key quote: > If any region has a lot of freshwater and little potable water, the best way to make potable water more availab…

That's a naive argument. Infrastructure construction timelines are typically measured in years and decades. You need to find the political will to do it and sufficient guarantees of long-term demand to justify the investment. And the work itself is often done in difficult environments, such as under major streets or on privately owned land that may already be in use.

Re: AGI fantasy is a blocker to actual engineering

#562

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The way they measure water consumption is genuinely unbelievably misleading at best. For example measuring the water evaporated from a dams basin if any hydroelectric power is used. Counting water is genuinely just asinine double counting ridiculousness that makes down stream things look completely insane. Like making a pound of beef look like it consumes 10,000L of water. In reality of course running your shower for…

My favourite example is the complaints about “e-waste” because AirPod batteries are not replaceable. Never mind that the batteries make up about half of the weight of the things ro begin with, the entire annual production of AirPods and their cases would barely fill a single shipping container. No, not a container ship, or anything substantial like that, just one container (1). Yet, it makes people lose their rationa…

Do you have a citation for that factoid?

Re: AGI fantasy is a blocker to actual engineering

#563

It is ultimately a hardware problem. To simplify it greatly, an LLM neuron is a single input single output function. A human brain neuron takes in thousands of inputs and produces thousands of outputs, to the point that some inputs start being processed before they even get inside the cell by structures on the outside of it. An LLM neuron is an approximation of this. We cannot manufacture a human level neuron to be s…

A bee is an autonomous walking, climbing, and flying drone that investigates its environment, collects resources, builds structures, and coordinates with other drones.

We're totally incapable of building an AI that can do anything resembling that. We're still at the phase where robots walking on rough terrain without falling over remains a bit impressive.

I doubt the limitation is that we can't produce enough raw compute to replace a single bee.

Re: AGI fantasy is a blocker to actual engineering

#564
post #521

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Update on the update: I asked Andy Masley (author of this piece https://andymasley.substack.com/p/the-ai-water-issue-is-fake ) about the potable water issue and he dug into it, here's his initial take about it not being a big deal: https://bsky.app/profile/andymasley.bsky.social/post/3m5mqce... Key quote: > If any region has a lot of freshwater and little potable water, the best way to make potable water more availab…

That's a naive argument. Infrastructure construction timelines are typically measured in years and decades. You need to find the political will to do it and sufficient guarantees of long-term demand to justify the investment. And the work itself is often done in difficult environments, such as under major streets or on privately owned land that may already be in use.

> Infrastructure construction timelines are typically measured in years and decades.

Years isn't actually a problem. How quickly do you think datacenters are built?

It's entirely feasible to build new water infrastructure and a datacenter in 2 years in many parts of the world.

Re: AGI fantasy is a blocker to actual engineering

#565
post #521
post #12

Tip for AI skeptics: skip the data center water usage argument. At this point I think it harms your credibility - numbers like "millions of liters of water annually" (from the linked article) sound scary when presented without context, but if you compare data centers to farmland or even golf courses they're minuscule. Other energy usage figures, air pollution, gas turbines, CO2 emissions etc are fine - but if you com…

Update on the update: I asked Andy Masley (author of this piece https://andymasley.substack.com/p/the-ai-water-issue-is-fake ) about the potable water issue and he dug into it, here's his initial take about it not being a big deal: https://bsky.app/profile/andymasley.bsky.social/post/3m5mqce... Key quote: > If any region has a lot of freshwater and little potable water, the best way to make potable water more availab…

This part of his argument is not self evident or intuitive and I'm not convinced that the abstract economic model maps cleanly to the messy reality. I'm much more assuaged by the fact that it seems to cost ~$1/1000 gallons to convert fresh water into potable water.

Like, if agriculture uses fresh water and data centers use potable water, the important question is how hard it is to convert fresh water into potable water?

The answer seems to be "not very" so the difference is kind of moot

Re: AGI fantasy is a blocker to actual engineering

#566
post #564

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's a naive argument. Infrastructure construction timelines are typically measured in years and decades. You need to find the political will to do it and sufficient guarantees of long-term demand to justify the investment. And the work itself is often done in difficult environments, such as under major streets or on privately owned land that may already be in use.

> Infrastructure construction timelines are typically measured in years and decades. Years isn't actually a problem. How quickly do you think datacenters are built? It's entirely feasible to build new water infrastructure and a datacenter in 2 years in many parts of the world.

In parts that do not care much about property rights and citizens are not allowed to challenge government decisions in the courts.

If I was trying to build new infrastructure in Finland, I would add four years to the project between the planning and the construction stages. Two years for urban planning and public hearings, and another two years for the inevitable lawsuits. Other Western countries should have similar delays.

Re: AGI fantasy is a blocker to actual engineering

#567
post #560

> As a technologist I want to solve problems effectively (by bringing about the desired, correct result), efficiently (with minimal waste) and without harm (to people or the environment). Me too. But, I worry this “want” may not be realistic/scalable. Yesterday, I was trying to get some Bluetooth/BLE working on a Raspberry CM 4. I had dabbled with this 9 months ago. And things were making progress then just fine. Sud…

The only reason search might not be as good as an AI is enshitifications. I expect these LLMs will be the same after the open web has withered.

LLMs are quite good at "semantic search", where traditional search engines struggle

Re: AGI fantasy is a blocker to actual engineering

#568
post #553
post #533

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm definitely more optimistic about Helion. It's the one that would really dramatically change the economics of power generation at scale, and they seem to have substantially engineered around major challenges like not requiring ignition and minimizing losses to Bremsstrahlung radiation. I like that they're laser-focused on launching and delivering commercial value, even if that means a bit less transparency and les…

https://www.helionenergy.com/articles/starting-to-build-the-... (undated) says Orion is intended to deliver 50 megawatts. If they could deliver that for under US$100 million they'd be competitive with fossil-fuel plants, assuming no fuel cost or other opex; if they could deliver it for under US$30 million they'd be competitive with solar, unless solar gets even cheaper. (It's fallen in cost by 45% over the last two y…

I'm not an expert on the subject, but is there an obvious bottleneck that would prevent Helion from manufacturing an arbitrarily large number of generators that scales with demand? 2000 generators doesn't seem like an overwhelmingly large number if they get paid enough to build out capacity for it, and they've already started on an assembly line manufacturing plant.

I'd expect that they probably wouldn't focus on copying Orion exactly, since Orion is just the initial PoC and will only use a single 50 MW generator. Their Nucor plant is planned to have 10x higher capacity, which seems likely to be more in line with typical deployments outside of remote areas. Opex also seems like a non-issue to me, given that the machines will be automated, the fuel will be cheap, and they won't have the same safety-critical need for strict regulation and human oversight as fission plants.

My understanding is that exporting might not be a huge hurdle to get a green light for due to the low proliferation concerns, although I wouldn't be surprised if Helion itself had some reservations around that or blocked it on designing some sort of tamper-resistant enclosure for IP protection purposes.

But I also don't see a reason why the US couldn't be a highly lucrative market for Helion, particularly given the increasing demand from AI. Solar in China today benefits from major alignment of interests and political tailwinds. Similarly, fusion could cut through partisan divides and NIMBYism that have hamstrung power buildout in the US. The left will buy in for climate benefits, the right will buy in for energy independence, both will buy in for economics + practicality, and NIMBYs will buy in for lower electric bills with minimal risks or drawbacks. Whether or not directly publicly funded, there will at least be every incentive to collectively get out of private industry's way and allow mass fusion deployment with minimal regulatory burdens.

That said, I'm sure solar will continue to get cheaper, and iron-air batteries from companies like Form Energy seem to be an extremely promising solution for high-scale storage. I also like the idea of using Prometheus Fuels to repurpose existing fossil fuel plants as storage for renewables. But there are still theoretical limits on the efficiency of solar panels, and space usage and intermittency could make it less cost-efficient than fusion in many if not most cases. We can't really make an apples-to-apples comparison between a mature technology in active high-volume production and a speculative future technology, but the latter in this case does seem to me to have a higher ceiling on its potential value over the long run.

Re: AGI fantasy is a blocker to actual engineering

#569
post #562

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My favourite example is the complaints about “e-waste” because AirPod batteries are not replaceable. Never mind that the batteries make up about half of the weight of the things ro begin with, the entire annual production of AirPods and their cases would barely fill a single shipping container. No, not a container ship, or anything substantial like that, just one container (1). Yet, it makes people lose their rationa…

Do you have a citation for that factoid?

[deleted]

Re: AGI fantasy is a blocker to actual engineering

#570
post #521
post #12

Tip for AI skeptics: skip the data center water usage argument. At this point I think it harms your credibility - numbers like "millions of liters of water annually" (from the linked article) sound scary when presented without context, but if you compare data centers to farmland or even golf courses they're minuscule. Other energy usage figures, air pollution, gas turbines, CO2 emissions etc are fine - but if you com…

Update on the update: I asked Andy Masley (author of this piece https://andymasley.substack.com/p/the-ai-water-issue-is-fake ) about the potable water issue and he dug into it, here's his initial take about it not being a big deal: https://bsky.app/profile/andymasley.bsky.social/post/3m5mqce... Key quote: > If any region has a lot of freshwater and little potable water, the best way to make potable water more availab…

Here's his full argument: https://andymasley.substack.com/p/the-ai-water-issue-is-fake...

There's a bunch in there but this bit caught my eye in particular:

> The US public water supply uses ~40 billion gallons per day, all of this is potable. Data centers used 50 million gallons per day onsite in 2023. So their potable water usage was 0.13% of the public water supply.

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