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America is getting an AI gold rush instead of a factory boom

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Re: America is getting an AI gold rush instead of a factory boom

#561

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is a really interesting generation gap issue in the replies to your comment. What I perceive as younger people are horrified at the idea of fifty year old tools while the older folks are thinking (I imagine) “if the tools have lasted that long they must be well-honed and very good”. Of course, this could simply be the perspective of someone turning 50 this year.

Less interested in America's expensive and slow manufacturing than in Chinese processes. They can retool faster, handle far more volume, and except for specialized industries (medicine, aerospace) their quality is better.

How old are you? Do you not understand business cycles? Life cycles? 'Baggie pants are the future, anyone wearing tired out old non-baggy pants, it's over grandpa, for we have, for the first time, discovered baggie pants are cool and modern'

It's all fun and games when everything (your trains, your new bridges, your manufacturing process) is the brand new cool version. I went through that cycle (starting family, brand new house, new cars, new boat, high paying tech job working on early 2000s cutting edge tech). Our house was the cool house for a bit. Then is was just another house. Then is became a burden with maintenance expenses on top of the mortgage. I became a grey beard with legacy tech skills.

For China, what happens when things settle more? The market flushes out half the companies making the tools (there's tons of companies during the 'fill out' cycle, but at some point that slows/industry consolidates), or new product lines replace the old, now your factory is on borrowed time until the machines break down, you aren't the new hyped cool kid (I'm talking about you USA as a country/Ruby on Rail devs/Angular devs). Like with a new home, slowly your mortgage gets supplemented with appliance repair bills and other maintenance, what was cool and new is outdated and replaced with 'better'. China is doing good with robots, but what happens next gen when roboto/AI interaction is native built in. Does China scrap their entire 2025 robot infra and replace it with 2030s? Or does someone else gain the advantage of not having those 'legacy' slower to retool, slower volume Chinese 2025 robots/infra?

It's wild how smart people don't seem to understand basic cycles anymore. China is in a growth cycle and everyone is going to their 'new home party' and saying man this is all great (it is awesome. It is amazing how China went from poverty to current success, so many improved lives I love it) and we are acting like this is the first time someone bought a new home ever and the home will always be perfect and new and cutting edge.

Let's just celebrate that so much poverty and suffering has been eliminated in China, and wish them well and continued improvements especially as they transition from the generations that suffered to their newer generations without all that trama. That is also tricky to navigate for a society as life expectations become wildly different.

Re: America is getting an AI gold rush instead of a factory boom

#562

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It was not linear growth. The 70s and 80s were essentially write-offs. Things began to move in the mid-1990s and it has been a continual evolution and process over the last 30 years. Jiang Zemin, Hu Jintao and Xi Jinping's teams all did wildly different things for China. The vertical integration you mention was basically non-existent prior to 2020, it came about as part of the New Development Pattern (新发展格局) for the…

I remember when there was a big push to make ball point pen tips, and how a but less than 10 years later they succeeded in making them domestically.

Rings a bell. Sounds simple, but being able to reliably make huge numbers of tiny little metal spheres with tiny tiny tolerance is a serious feat; being able to do that brings knowledge and experience that unlocks an entire level of the tech tree.

Re: America is getting an AI gold rush instead of a factory boom

#563
Jim Farley, the CEO of Ford, has been visiting factories in China.[1]

"Ford CEO Jim Farley said Chinese cars have "far superior" technology, lower costs and great quality."

Ford is working on fixing this and getting a $30,000 EV out the door.[2]

[1] https://insideevs.com/news/764318/ford-ceo-china-evs-humbled...

[2] https://archive.is/kUbEW

Re: America is getting an AI gold rush instead of a factory boom

#564
post #445

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This uh valiant defense of China misses my point entirely. People in democracies have no excuse hiding their personal responsibility behind flawed leadership.

By the same token, hiding comprehensively broken and undemocratic governance behind "it's the publics' fault, because they get to vote for one of two candidates owned by wealthy donors every 2 years" is the opposite of useful.

This phenomenon is not limited to the United States, the trend is global including many parliamentary republics.

Re: America is getting an AI gold rush instead of a factory boom

#565

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can show any number in isolation and it can mean anything. Now try presenting it the distribution of typical job gains/losses!

The reason the percentage was included was to take the number out of isolation. What can mean anything is when people tell you to ignore the numbers, because they could mean anything. > Now try presenting it the distribution of typical job gains/losses! You first!

> You first!

In any honest conversation, the person presenting the numbers will provide this, but I'll bite:

How many years are cumulative negative in this table?

https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/ces0000000001?output_view=ne...

(I guess the correct way to model this would be as the difference of Poissons between hires and separations, but a student-t should do just fine since we don't have separations)

Re: America is getting an AI gold rush instead of a factory boom

#566

Investing in AI infrastructure seems very risky to me. With how short of a lifecycle computing hardware generally has, does it make sense to blow billions on hardware that will need to be replaced in a few years? AI companies have been burning billions on hardware. Will the costs of that hardware be covered by profits before the hardware lifecycle is up? That's a big gamble. We used to talk about AI as having no moat…

Once you can run a GPT5 level LLM locally on a device, it’s over. All this mighty infrastructure is no longer any more impressive than a top of the line 2013 Mac Pro in 2025. I think we’re 10 years away from that.

Consumer devices are already available that offer 128gb specifically labeled for AI use. I think server side AI will still exist for IoT devices, but I agree, 10 years seems pretty reasonable timelie to buy a GTX 5080-sized card that will have 1TB of memory, with the ability to pair it with another one for 2TB. For local, non-distributed use, GPUs are already more than capable of doing 20+ tokens/s, we're mostly waiting on 512gb devices to drop in price, and "free" LLMs to get better.

Re: America is getting an AI gold rush instead of a factory boom

#567

Earlier quoted context omitted.

arguably the biggest driver is simply the cost of oil. crumple zones made of styrofoam and plastic bumpers arn't making things heavy. e.g. https://www.forbes.com/sites/samabuelsamid/2019/01/03/new-ve...

That article is being disingenuous and wrong. It's comparing the lightest possible Civic configuration with the heaviest possible Accord of a different body type. The 2000 Accord sedan is 2,712lbs, not 2,987lbs (which would be the wagon). The 2019 Civic sedan is 2,743–2,923lbs depending on equipment/trim. So yes, the Civic compared to an older car of similar size did get heavier. The Miata proves that cars don't have…

A 2000 Honda Accord and a 2019 Honda Civic have nearly identical dimensions. Car models generally get bigger with each generation over time.

Re: America is getting an AI gold rush instead of a factory boom

#568

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Once you can run a GPT5 level LLM locally on a device, it’s over. All this mighty infrastructure is no longer any more impressive than a top of the line 2013 Mac Pro in 2025. I think we’re 10 years away from that.

10 years from now, the capabilities of gpt5 will be as relevant to AI as Atari is to modern gaming

Unless GPT 5 is more like the PlayStation 5 and not the Atari 2600.

Re: America is getting an AI gold rush instead of a factory boom

#569
post #551

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Once you can run a GPT5 level LLM locally on a device, it’s over. All this mighty infrastructure is no longer any more impressive than a top of the line 2013 Mac Pro in 2025. I think we’re 10 years away from that.

Have you tried the reasoning mode of Gemini Pro 2.5? https://aistudio.google.com/ It gives me the chills, thinking about when it has 1000x cheaper ~GPU compute.

This a hosted model with closed weights, though.

Re: America is getting an AI gold rush instead of a factory boom

#570

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The biggest threat to civilization is, in fact, AI. It's a new problem, and one with an utterly ridiculous lethality at its limit. It makes the atomic bomb look benign. "That's not my problem" is something humans have been dealing with since before they mastered the art of sharpening a stick.

Nah, it's global warming. Because fossil fuel is stupid useful and there's no way we're going to stop burning it. And then we get to the climate scenarios that aren't compatible with our current sophisticated civilization, even with the currently accepted climate science (that always seems to underestimate what actually happens).

Global warming just isn't harmful enough to pose a credible extinction risk.

The damage is too limited and happens far too slowly. Even the unlikely upper end projections aren't enough to upend the human civilization - the harms up there at the top end are "worse than WW2", but WW2 sure didn't end humankind. At the same time: the ever-worsening economics of fossil fuel power put a bound on climate change even in a "no climate policy" world, which we are outperforming.

It's like the COVID of global natural disasters. Harmful enough to be worth taking measures against. But just harmless enough that you could do absolutely nothing, and get away with it.

The upper bound on AI risks is: total extinction of humankind.

I fucking wish that climate change was the biggest threat as far as eye can see.

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