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Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

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Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#561

Post by lenerdenator »

JackYoustra wrote: post #544
lenerdenator wrote: post #464

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> that led to interest rate rises Interest rates didn't rise because of industrial revival acts; they rose because they had been artificially low for a decade and someone had to throw water on the economy to cool it lest hyperinflation hit. > and a TON of tech layoffs! The nature of tech layoffs and what has happened in the Midwest over the last 50 years are completely different. When a guy is let go from Meta, he's…

> Interest rates didn't rise because of industrial revival acts; they rose because they had been artificially low for a decade and someone had to throw water on the economy to cool it lest hyperinflation hit. I hate "artificially low" why artificial? What makes something artificial and what makes it real? In economics, there's an idea of a natural interest rate: the interest rate which is the lowest under which infla…

> I hate "artificially low" why artificial? What makes something artificial and what makes it real?

When people have cheap access to money, they spend it. When they spend it in such a manner that it outpaces the ability of the supply side to, well, supply, the result is inflation. And that's what we saw in '21 and '22. You had someone handing out PPP loans like candy and forgiving them outright, you had stimmy checks (that weren't backed by anything real, but that's another story), you had people sitting around looking for stuff to pass lockdown with, etc.

So at that point, by definition, we're lower than the "natural" interest rate. This showed that a lot of businesses in the tech industry couldn't survive without dirt-cheap money to give them ever-increasing amounts of runway. You can't just hyper scale like Uber when borrowers expect the rate of return dictated by the now-higher "natural" interest rate.

> No data backing this up.

Besides decades of economic, social, environmental, and political events and trends, you're right. Wanna have a bottle of water from Flint, MI? I can pull one out of the cellar. 2015, a fine year.

> OC talking about media calling them 'flyover country' as if it matters / is somehow out of bounds conduct at all.

1) that's not indicative of the stuff you were charging 2) yeah, it is out-of-bounds conduct. It's an a-hole move to belittle poorer regions in your country, whether explicitly or in more tacit ways. If you do it long enough, you get where we are now. Anyone happy about that?

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#563

Post by lunarlull »

alaxhn wrote: post #198
beloch wrote: post #8

This is an inherently political subject, but I would appreciate a dispassionate argument explaining how this could be even remotely good for the U.S.'s economy in a way that is light on MAGA ideology and doesn't simply claim the overwhelming majority of economists are dumb. I'm simply not seeing even a glimmer of a possible upside right now. I see even less possibility of an upside for those of us North of the border…

To lay out my own biases - I voted for Trump but do not consider myself a strong supporter (I saw it much more of a vote for who you dislike less sort of situation) - I don't understand and am not supportive of the approach on Tariffs - I am an active participate in what most here would consider right wing politics although I don't find myself aligning on every topic (e.g. I am supportive of the abortion laws in Cali…

> To lay out my own biases

> - I voted for Trump

What will it take for you to regret doing so?

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#564

Post by mleroy »

csense wrote: post #531
cycomanic wrote: post #324

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was bringing this up with a guy yesterday who was genuinely supporting the policies and somebody chimed in that they were not worried at all, because everyone wants to trade with the big boy in town. Trust is not important if they are afraid of you (I'm paraphrasing). Quite a different perspective, but it is consistent with an observation I made about a lot of US comments, people are quite happy for their country/g…

> "if you don't want it to be done to you don't do it to others" Doesn't work. We opened trade to China in the '70s. They took advantage of us, stealing IP, manipulating currency, paying their people terrible wages, crapping all over the environment. We let their companies freely in the US, they very severely restricted US business ventures in China. Detroit, a former shining city in the industrial heartland, is now…

The Rust Belt's just one part of the story, not the whole US economy. Globalization actually created tons of wealth for the USA, but that money hasn't been spread around fairly. It's all piled up in coastal cities and with rich folks while factory towns got left behind. Cutting off global trade wouldn't fix anything - it would tank the overall economy while only helping a few powerful players pulling the strings. The real problem isn't trade deals; it's that the USA never properly invested the profits back into the communities that got hit hardest.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#565

Post by lunarlull »

csense wrote: post #531
cycomanic wrote: post #324

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was bringing this up with a guy yesterday who was genuinely supporting the policies and somebody chimed in that they were not worried at all, because everyone wants to trade with the big boy in town. Trust is not important if they are afraid of you (I'm paraphrasing). Quite a different perspective, but it is consistent with an observation I made about a lot of US comments, people are quite happy for their country/g…

> "if you don't want it to be done to you don't do it to others" Doesn't work. We opened trade to China in the '70s. They took advantage of us, stealing IP, manipulating currency, paying their people terrible wages, crapping all over the environment. We let their companies freely in the US, they very severely restricted US business ventures in China. Detroit, a former shining city in the industrial heartland, is now…

> In the US, a person used to be able to graduate high school and get a job that could support owning a house with a yard, a non-working spouse, a car, and multiple children.

That was never sustainable in the long run and no one can bring that back.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#566

Post by lunarlull »

billy99k wrote: post #478
tock wrote: post #445

Earlier quoted context omitted.

America is the richest country in the world. That is the payback. Yet somehow the working class is screwed. People don't want to admit wealth distribution is the problem because that would make them "communists". It's an emotional response. I'm scared how far they take it.

"People don't want to admit wealth distribution is the problem because that would make them "communists"." If you are referring to taking wealth by force from people that earned it and giving to people that didn't earn it, yes it's 'communist'. There's nothing emotional about a methodology that has failed over and over again.

Most of those people didn't earn it directly, but via exploiting people working under them and not paying them a fair share for their work.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#567

Post by _t9ow »

csense wrote: post #531
cycomanic wrote: post #324

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was bringing this up with a guy yesterday who was genuinely supporting the policies and somebody chimed in that they were not worried at all, because everyone wants to trade with the big boy in town. Trust is not important if they are afraid of you (I'm paraphrasing). Quite a different perspective, but it is consistent with an observation I made about a lot of US comments, people are quite happy for their country/g…

> "if you don't want it to be done to you don't do it to others" Doesn't work. We opened trade to China in the '70s. They took advantage of us, stealing IP, manipulating currency, paying their people terrible wages, crapping all over the environment. We let their companies freely in the US, they very severely restricted US business ventures in China. Detroit, a former shining city in the industrial heartland, is now…

Since your comment is comparing the US with China, maybe a bit of "whataboutism" is warranted here.

> stealing IP

Edward Snowden's leaks reveal that the US engages in wide-scale economic espionage. Additionally, the US also uses extra-territorial means of coercion to acquire cutting-edge technology -- see e.g. the Alstom case.

> manipulating currency

For many decades the US has been able to print money like a madman while the rest of the world absorbs the costs by virtue of the USD being the primary reserve currency globally. The US is also not above strong-arming its allies into appreciating their own currencies to boost American exports -- see the Plaza Accord, which partly contributed to Japan's subsequent Lost Decades.

> paying their people terrible wages

China has lifted hundreds of millions of people out of abject poverty in the last 20 years. In the US wages have remained stagnant for the working class over the same period, if not longer. Frustration among the working class -- which is entirely justified and understandable, by the way -- is probably one of the reasons why Trump was re-elected.

> crapping all over the environment

Chinese cities today are mostly clean and quiet, increasingly powered by renewable energy with more and more electric vehicles driven on the roads. The Chinese are also undertaking massive greening projects, such as the Great Green Wall: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Green_Wall_(China) On a per-capita basis the Chinese emit far less carbon dioxide than Americans do.

The US, especially when compared to almost any other developed country, is in no moral position to be sanctimonious about environmental issues.

Don't blame other countries -- China or not -- for America's own catastrophic, chronic failure in leadership and subpar policymaking, especially when America has enjoyed so many entrenched advantages for so many decades (and still does).

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#568

Post by gU9x3u8XmQNG »

JackYoustra wrote: post #233
gU9x3u8XmQNG wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

100% agree with this perspective. It’s surprising how few others seem to note this. Thanks for posting it.

Why would shareholders want to tank the value of their shares?

I never said they want to.

But as many responses to your comments; there’s a portion of the population who are not invested in the markets this way.

There’s clearly a very different perspective for some, and as per my original reply; it seems many more are worried (rightfully so) about assets others cannot even begin to comprehend - let alone invest day to day, or “spare”, money into.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#569

Post by OJFord »

lunarlull wrote: post #443
OJFord wrote: post #330

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know what 'pretty young' is, apart from condescending, but I voted in it, so I remember as well as you do I imagine. Regardless of contemporaneous comparisons, the up-thread comment I initially replied to suggested there was some ongoing worse 'crisis' in the UK than the current situation in the US, if they meant to refer to Brexit it was not clear at all, regardless of whether anyone things that's an ongoing…

> I don't know what 'pretty young' is, apart from condescending, but I voted in it, 'Pretty young' would imply maybe you haven't been voting for very long, and are likely under 25.

(if they share the same definition) then no, I am not.

An under 25 year old today wouldn't have been able to have voted on the 2016 referendum anyway.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#570

Post by AlecSchueler »

photonthug wrote: post #546
csense wrote: post #531

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "if you don't want it to be done to you don't do it to others" Doesn't work. We opened trade to China in the '70s. They took advantage of us, stealing IP, manipulating currency, paying their people terrible wages, crapping all over the environment. We let their companies freely in the US, they very severely restricted US business ventures in China. Detroit, a former shining city in the industrial heartland, is now…

For the people who want ^this guy to shut up but haven't engaged.. which part of the above is wrong? I can see hyperbole of "bandit infested ruin" pushing some buttons but otoh it's seems likely that crime is connected to general economic health.

For me the idea of "stealing IP" in a society like China seems to miss the entire point of what they're doing and seems to fall short of having respect for cultural differences. What we think of as "respecting intellectual property rights" can also be seen as "hoarding property" which is antithetical to communist ideals.
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