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Twitter board adopts poison pill after Musk’s $43B bid to buy company

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Re: Twitter board adopts poison pill after Musk’s $43B bid to buy company

#561

Post by psyc »

hooande wrote: post #546
psyc wrote: post #535

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have this recurring fantasy in which some Satoshi figure creates a decentralized global bulletin board, such that anybody can post and view anything anonymously and untraceably, and nobody - not the U.S. government, nor the CCP, nor the Mossad, nor the NSA - can stop it short of dismantling the whole Internet and starting over. Nobody can blame anybody, because nobody can stop it. Not because I think such a thing i…

This is 4chan. Your recurring fantasy is 4chan

Not even close. 4chan was vulnerable to censorship from day one, and succumbed to it completely over Gamergate, of all things.

Re: Twitter board adopts poison pill after Musk’s $43B bid to buy company

#562

Post by bscphil »

BurningFrog wrote: post #497
stupandaus wrote: post #489

Earlier quoted context omitted.

this is incorrect. the price going up is a reflection of the market's believe about the % likelihood of a deal. for example at market close of $45.08, the market is betting there is a $45.08/$54.20 = 83% chance that this transaction goes through. there are certainly individual stockholders who are buying because they like his involvement, but that is tiny compared to people buying and selling a very near-term bet

> at market close of $45.08, the market is betting there is a $45.08/$54.20 = 83% chance that this transaction goes through. This assumes the price without the transactions goes to $0.00!

Correct, and furthermore, Musk's offer was made after he announced his stake in the company, which is what caused the price of the stock to rise. Him offering to buy it outright barely affected the share price:

> The social media company’s shares were little changed at $45.81 in New York on Thursday, a sign there’s skepticism that one of the platform’s most outspoken users will succeed in his takeover attempt. -- Bloomberg

So while the news of a major stakeholder with the power to join the board and affect how things are run did cause a significant blip in Twitter's stock price, the attempt to buy it outright doesn't seem to have affected things much. Even if we (incorrectly) assumed that all of the rise from ~$40 to ~$45 is associated with the possibility of Musk paying $54 a share, that suggests the market assigns only a ~36% chance of the deal going through.

Re: Twitter board adopts poison pill after Musk’s $43B bid to buy company

#563

Post by Uehreka »

TobyTheDog123 wrote: post #537
Waterluvian wrote: post #463

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why will the price tank? None of this changes the value of Twitter if he walks away.

A lot of people in this thread share your opinion, but I'm a bit confused by it. If the board acted against the usual shareholder interest (to make money) by turning down an offer 54% above premium, would it not be easy to claim that the board is not in it to make the average investor money on $TWTR? Therefore, wouldn't the value of $TWTR as an investment be far far less than companies who do make it their primary go…

Yeah but that analysis downplays the shareholders’ thoughts about the future. If they largely feel like Twitter’s real value is $100B, that it just hasn’t been realized yet, and that they think it can be realized, then it totally makes sense to turn Elon down.

In reality though, the shareholders are a giant mob of people with wildly varying views about Twitter’s place in society, its true value as an asset, its ability to achieve its true value, and just generally what the best way to “make the most money for the shareholders” is. So I don’t think it’s an open-and-shut case that the board betrayed the shareholders. It’s probably a muddy case that’ll play out in court over months or years.

Re: Twitter board adopts poison pill after Musk’s $43B bid to buy company

#564

Post by haliskerbas »

a-dub wrote: post #501
hooande wrote: post #485

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As is detailed by many smart people below, fiduciary duty lawsuits are difficult to win. They'd pretty much have to have board members emailing each other saying "This would be in the best interest of shareholders, but let's screw them over instead" This was an epic debacle. Musk invested 4 BILLION dollars in an asset of questionable value, because "free speech". If he times it right he could come out ahead financial…

from what i understand it's a matter of ideals combined with the technologist's desire to see the machines (all types, including sociopolitical) work correctly. he wants to see the first amendment function with autistic precision. he wants to remove any messy personalization because it interferes with that purity. he wants fully transparent moderation and proof of fairness. he doesn't like the idea that one organizat…

Surprised that he wants to see the “social machine” work but is fine mocking the homeless, the poor, or the hungry.

In my opinion the fundamental needs of humans being meant is part of the social machine. Not rich people getting to whine.

Re: Twitter board adopts poison pill after Musk’s $43B bid to buy company

#565

Post by wwweston »

scythe wrote: post #512
wwweston wrote: post #413

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Elon is arguing that Twitter is mismanaged. Anyone who thinks this is manifestly true should read this take from an ex-CEO of Reddit: https://twitter.com/yishan/status/1514938507407421440 tl;dr: managing human interaction in any environment with limited accountability is a lot harder than it looks Also, there's the question of by what metrics one would argue it's mismanaged. Revenue and engagement trends? Profitabi…

I mean, if you take it as a case for why moderation is hard, that's fair. But while Elon describes himself (identity politics) as a "free speech absolutist", his concrete proposals seem to include things like an edit button, long-form tweets and some monetization strategies. I think the fairer critique of modern Twitter is that it prioritizes the needs of media personalities and PR firms over ordinary users, not that…

> his concrete proposals seem to include things like an edit button, long-form tweets and some monetization strategies.

This sounds like an opportunity to diversify the media (and discourse) landscape with a different product.

Re: Twitter board adopts poison pill after Musk’s $43B bid to buy company

#566

Post by [deleted] »

recuter wrote: post #213
pcmoney wrote: post #197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Poison Pills are rarely exercised, this is a positional move. Unlikely Elon is the only interested party at this point. If the board can use a pill to force a slower buy-out discussion and negotiation it is very much beneficial to shareholders. Their stock price was over $70 in the trailing 12 months. Even with Elon's offer they are still worth 10 NFL teams combined. I can find zero credible evidence to support your…

I wasn't aware NFL teams was a unit of measurement. One has to wonder if you think I am wrong why you wish for me to short the stock and lose my shirt.

[deleted]

Re: Twitter board adopts poison pill after Musk’s $43B bid to buy company

#567

Post by jpcfl »

hooande wrote: post #485
toephu2 wrote: post #457

Wow, my prediction is Musk will walk away, Twitter stock price will tank, and Twitter will be flooded with thousands of shareholder lawsuits (for breaching their fiduciary duty).

As is detailed by many smart people below, fiduciary duty lawsuits are difficult to win. They'd pretty much have to have board members emailing each other saying "This would be in the best interest of shareholders, but let's screw them over instead" This was an epic debacle. Musk invested 4 BILLION dollars in an asset of questionable value, because "free speech". If he times it right he could come out ahead financial…

He is a futurist, and believes that without free speech, human kind is doomed.

I agree.

Re: Twitter board adopts poison pill after Musk’s $43B bid to buy company

#568

Post by garbagetime »

pbreit wrote: post #507
hooande wrote: post #485

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As is detailed by many smart people below, fiduciary duty lawsuits are difficult to win. They'd pretty much have to have board members emailing each other saying "This would be in the best interest of shareholders, but let's screw them over instead" This was an epic debacle. Musk invested 4 BILLION dollars in an asset of questionable value, because "free speech". If he times it right he could come out ahead financial…

An L for Twitter inc, perhaps. OP did not say shareholders would win their lawsuits. Elon obviously has zero interest in a financial return. It's clear he genuinely believes Twitter could be better, especially around free speech.

What's his loss going to be? Like, $500,000,000? I doubt the money matters that much to him.

Re: Twitter board adopts poison pill after Musk’s $43B bid to buy company

#569

Post by wyclif »

tehwebguy wrote: post #490
alfor wrote: post #480

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He will sell his 9% He will start something to compete against Twitter. Twitter will be stuck with their current management and cultural problems.

Nobody will switch from Twitter to some knock off he or anyone else makes. (By “nobody” I mean both nearly 0% of users and only people who will not be missed on Twitter)

Loads of people said that about Twitter in 2006 when it was a "knock off." It's been proven wrong again and again. And Musk is the kind of guy who can create significantly large network effects and economies of scale.

Re: Twitter board adopts poison pill after Musk’s $43B bid to buy company

#570

Post by imbnwa »

a-dub wrote: post #557
psyc wrote: post #535

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have this recurring fantasy in which some Satoshi figure creates a decentralized global bulletin board, such that anybody can post and view anything anonymously and untraceably, and nobody - not the U.S. government, nor the CCP, nor the Mossad, nor the NSA - can stop it short of dismantling the whole Internet and starting over. Nobody can blame anybody, because nobody can stop it. Not because I think such a thing i…

it's a false projection though. it wouldn't be a projection of humanity -- it would be a projection of humanity warped by the games that would emerge as generations learn to cope with anonymous hyperconnectedness. it's not some mirror that reflects who we really are, it's the chaos that comes from navigating entirely new paradigms of attention games and connectedness at scales we haven't yet evolved for.

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