Russians are trying to flee – data from Google Trends • Hacker News Board

Re: Russians are trying to flee – data from Google Trends

#561

Post by maybelsyrup » Sat, Mar 05, 2022, 7:43 PM UTC

artificial wrote: post #512

maybelsyrup wrote: post #356

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Nobody wants World War 3. Small point but this isn't exactly true, especially among US policymakers and media people. All you need to do here is read the chorus of people in official / corporate media going "nuclear war would be bad, but [...]". You can also rewind to the enormous shit-fit Washington types threw last summer when Biden pulled out of Afghanistan, or go even further back to the Iraq war. Washington is…

Lots of NGOs and bad actors. Speaking of which looks at this post by Edward Norton! [0] as far as strategies scope this paper by the Rand Corporation from 2019 discussing what looks like a lot of policies already in place. Banning Russia from international institutions, strategies such as providing lethal aid to Ukraine, destabilizing neighboring country Belarus, PysOps to damage internal credibility. [1] [0] https:/…

I'd seen some of the Rand stuff but the Edward Norton shit is terrifying/hilarious. I haven't seen liberals this frothy for other people to kill on their behalf since right after 9/11. Lmao "please CIA FBI"! War makes fascists of us all.

Re: Russians are trying to flee – data from Google Trends

#562

Post by tsol » Sat, Mar 05, 2022, 7:43 PM UTC

BossingAround wrote: post #418

tsol wrote: post #376

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Quoted post unavailable.

> I don't support Russia, but I can see why they want Ukraine, a country that is in their borders, to stay in their orbit. This is a complete red herring. They don't want Ukraine to "stay in their orbit," they are colonizers that are fighting against Ukraine's independence. Putin said he doesn't want Ukraine to join NATO. Nobody in NATO is eager to accept Ukraine. Ukraine said they'd stay independent. Now, Putin is s…

I disagree. There are highly respected political scientists that disagree such as John Mearsheimer of University of Chicago. Here's an article from the New Yorker; https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/why-john-mearsheimer-...

He explains exactly how nato has made moves to expand, the puts Russia in a position to respond;

>"I think all the trouble in this case really started in April, 2008, at the nato Summit in Bucharest, where afterward nato issued a statement that said Ukraine and Georgia would become part of nato. The Russians made it unequivocally clear at the time that they viewed this as an existential threat, and they drew a line in the sand. Nevertheless, what has happened with the passage of time is that we have moved forward to include Ukraine in the West to make Ukraine a Western bulwark on Russia’s border. Of course, this includes more than just nato expansion. nato expansion is the heart of the strategy, but it includes E.U. expansion as well, and it includes turning Ukraine into a pro-American liberal democracy, and, from a Russian perspective, this is an existential threat"

You say I don't know why Putin is acting, and then baselessly go on to claim a reason with no support. The idea that all it takes is some strong action, without taking into account the valid objections actual experts have, is ridiculous. This isn't propaganda it's valid foreign policy discussion that many others agree with.

Re: Russians are trying to flee – data from Google Trends

#563

Post by [deleted] » Sat, Mar 05, 2022, 7:43 PM UTC

tsol wrote: post #382

mantas wrote: post #283

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is how to separate Russians fleeing Putin from Russians who just look for financial comfort and still support Putin. One of stark examples is Turks in Germany still voting for Erdogan.

Maybe this is very American of me to say-- but what about them? They have freedom of speech even if it's not something I agree with. We don't throw everyone who calls themselves nazis into jail.. why try to punish everyone who might agree with Putin? Are we in the business of policing political attitudes now?

[deleted]

Re: Russians are trying to flee – data from Google Trends

#564

Post by mantas » Sat, Mar 05, 2022, 7:44 PM UTC

NicoJuicy wrote: post #549

lowkey wrote: post #305

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you don’t trust the official election polls in Russia, why would you trust their opinion polls to be honest. If I were Putin, I would certainly be tempted to manipulate opinion polls to make it look like I am more popular than I really am. As for western media, while no doubt less manipulated than Russian media, I don’t think it is safe to assume that western media is above manipulating public opinion to suit thei…

Because covid and other things. A lot more was reported since last September where I am from.

And it was really boring for years. Another shelling, another handful of men dead, another Russian exercise

Re: Russians are trying to flee – data from Google Trends

#565

Post by politician » Sat, Mar 05, 2022, 7:44 PM UTC

politician wrote: post #441

grujicd wrote: post #430

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most sanctions have inverse effect of strengthening the authoritharian government. Maybe if you have free press and strong oposition you can use sanctions to turn population against governemnt. However, my experience of suffering under combination of sanctions and authorian government is that dictatorship gets stronger in these cases. I would even support sanctions in the 90-ties against Serbia if they increased our…

A weak, underfed population whose military cannot keep its vehicles in working order isn’t going to be invading its neighbors with any degree of success.

Addendum: Look at Russia's conventional military on display in this conflict. Reliant on undertrained conscripts, poor discipline, poor planning. If NATO imposes a "no-fly" zone over Ukraine, Putin has no where to turn except to his nuclear deterrence forces. He has no dry powder except for his estimated 6000 nuclear weapons.

"Backed into a corner" is a phrase that is tossed around too easily these days. NATO does not want to force him into that corner with a "no-fly" zone over Ukraine. Brutal, backbreaking sanctions and the loss of support of a brainwashed public is the current alternative. I am certain that there are even harsher options in the pipeline. For example, cutting off oil and gas purchases, and sacrificing Western economies in an era of record high inflation. In my opinion, NATO will gladly make that trade to keep Putin from abandoning MAD.

Re: Russians are trying to flee – data from Google Trends

#566

Post by Etherlord87 » Sat, Mar 05, 2022, 7:44 PM UTC

ericmay wrote: post #323

hutzlibu wrote: post #260

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think many would, if they can find a state who gives them papers instead. Being stateless is no fun.

Yea I can't imagine. The whole situation is just shit and it is all because of one guy. My wild hope for this situation is that somehow Putin and his gang are ousted, and we can Marshall Plan Russia into a successful, prosperous European democracy. Even make them a partner with NATO like we tried to do before. Admittedly the Russian people would have to want that, so that's a precondition, but I'm hopeful.

> it is all because of one guy.

It's not. There's many ways in which you can get in contact with russians. And many of them actually support putin.

Yes, you can say people are indoctrinated. But maybe so is putin - that's the problem with determinism.

hitler was not one guy. putin is not one guy.

I'm against lifting sanctions when putin dies. Much more has to be done.

Re: Russians are trying to flee – data from Google Trends

#567

Post by optimalonpaper » Sat, Mar 05, 2022, 7:45 PM UTC

vlaaad wrote: post #329

bitcharmer wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Judging by the number of Russians taking the easy way out by just fleeing or complaining about the evil west closing their Ikea stores this nation at the moment has zero capacity to take responsibility for their own government. I'm afraid it has to get much worse before it gets better. They still don't understand that as much as the government is responsible for its people, the people are also responsible for their g…

Why would I take responsibility for something I have zero influence over? He did just appear when Yeltsin said that he's leaving. He blatantly fakes elections: 146% support is a very telling result of one of these elections. It is a meme in Russia because when you can't do anything about it you can only laugh or cry. His 20 years on the throne are a constant stream of murders, poisoning and jailing of people who try…

> I'm just a normal person, I want to live a normal live with my wife and kids, I didn't choose any of that.

That's what 2000+ civilians who died since 24th of February felt and wanted. They didn't choose to die. But they died. And more will follow if you don't start acting (not you but you as a society, you as a group of normal people who want a normal life). And so this is why you have to risk

Re: Russians are trying to flee – data from Google Trends

#568

Post by [deleted] » Sat, Mar 05, 2022, 7:46 PM UTC

tsol wrote: post #382

mantas wrote: post #283

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is how to separate Russians fleeing Putin from Russians who just look for financial comfort and still support Putin. One of stark examples is Turks in Germany still voting for Erdogan.

Maybe this is very American of me to say-- but what about them? They have freedom of speech even if it's not something I agree with. We don't throw everyone who calls themselves nazis into jail.. why try to punish everyone who might agree with Putin? Are we in the business of policing political attitudes now?

[deleted]

Re: Russians are trying to flee – data from Google Trends

#569

Post by Animats » Sat, Mar 05, 2022, 7:46 PM UTC

traceroute66 wrote: post #270

bsedlm wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

a lot of people seem ok with punishing Russian individuals for the actions of the government. maybe these people have grown in better functioning democracies (unlike Russia or my own country) so they act as if the people were well represented by their governments; unlike reality for most countries with a serious corruption problem.

> a lot of people seem ok with punishing Russian individuals for the actions of the government. Its easy to say that but you have to look at the bigger picture. It's easy to say "just punish the government / the oligarchs", but as most Westerners know, these people have become extraordinarily adept at hiding their money and distributing their assets. So it is very difficult indeed to target them per-se, hence you nee…

> Nobody wants World War 3. ... the alternative, full-blown war across Europe and the potential for nuclear bombs being used is unfathomably worse for everyone both inside Russia and outside.

We may get it by mistake. A wider war in Europe is all too likely. The NATO countries and the EU are shipping large amounts of military supplies into Ukraine. One story mentions 17 US widebody cargo aircraft per day going into Poland. This is a real threat to Russia's attacks, because the supplies include the good anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons. That leaves the Russian army fighting as infantry against a much larger armed population, a long, bloody slog. Unless Russia can cut off outside supplies, there's no path to victory.

It's all too likely that some attempt to attack Ukranian supply lines will reach over the border into a NATO country. Just some Russian pilot in Ukraine in a fight making a turn too slowly could result in overflying Polish territory. Where the air defenses are ready to shoot down anything hostile.

Re-read how WWI started. Everybody had mutual-defense treaties, and one minor event set it all off.

2 hours ago: "Putin says sanctions introduced on Russia are equal to a "declaration of war"" - CNN.

Re: Russians are trying to flee – data from Google Trends

#570

Post by ativzzz » Sat, Mar 05, 2022, 7:47 PM UTC

antattack wrote: post #415

artyomxyz wrote: post #378

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In some way you’re right. But it’s important to note that we haven’t chosen this government, we haven’t chosen this country we live in. I personally lost any hope to change it one year earlier after participating in pro-Navalny protests. Now, I just don’t want to have anything in common with this government. I’m choosing another one. And I’m not going to pay taxes to Russian government anymore

Don't beat yourself over it. Now that you're out of the country, you can donate time and/or money to help fight for tolerance and against Putin regime.

For the vast majority of normal people, just leaving the country without plans of coming back is the best they can do.