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Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

reuters.com

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Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#561

Post by denton-scratch »

thjkgfgrrioppo wrote: post #268
ripvanwinkle wrote: post #32

To some extent this situation feels analogous to a street mugging happening in very slow motion The thug accosts the victim, threatens and then proceeds to assault the victim in full view of a large number of bystanders who are numerous enough to defend the victim and alter the outcome but not convicted enough to take on the inconvenience of doing so. Nevertheless all the bystanders voice words of encouragement and s…

Couldn't it simply be true that Putin doesn't want Ukraine to join Nato and Ukraine is trying to join anyway?

Why is this downvoted?

It's not just Putin; Russian leaders through most of the 20thC have feared encroachment on their western borders, and have launched invasions and installed puppet regimes to create a buffer. The fact that Ukraine has clearly expressed its desire to join NATO, and NATO's refusal to reject that possibility, means that Russia perceives a threat that their greatest enemy will suddenly appear right on their border.

Georgia also wanted to join NATO; so they got invaded.

The West has played this hand very badly. Instead of declaring that under no circumstances would they send troops to Ukraine, they should have kept silent, or possibly sent a division of ground troops, to be dispersed around the country. They should also have leaned hard on Ukraine to make Donetsk and Luhansk officially autonomous regions. The Donbas would then become Russia's buffer zone, making them feel a bit less paranoid about NATO encroachment.

FWIW, I think NATO should have dismantled itself following the collapse of the Soviet Union. The modern NATO is a global organisation, not restricted to the North Atlantic. It's no longer a mutual defence pact for countries at risk of Russian attack; its main purpose now is simply to intimidate Russia.

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#562

Post by b112 »

friedturkey wrote: post #534
amai wrote: post #490

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> “Ukraine, a new and important space on the Eurasian chessboard, is a geopolitical pivot because its very existence as an independent country helps to transform Russia. Without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be a Eurasian empire.” He claims that without any proof. This maybe would have been true in the 19th century given the technologies for war and power at that time. But we have the 21st century now. Why should the Ukr…

Ukraine has excellent farmland. Russia has their own local economy and can produce most of the things they need just with their direct neighbors. French cheeses, American-branded phones, and Italian cars may be too expensive for the Russian economy, but the Russian government doesn't care. Close-enough products can be had for a fraction of the price. Thinking of things in terms of raw GDP is what is getting the west…

Agree 100%. The problem is really, GDP is in one currency. There should be a second metric, adjusted to local buying power, for countries with loads of internal resources, and production capability.

When I look at numbers, for example, which China spends on military spending, and research? Then try to equate it not in USD, but in local buying power?

And also consider many Chinese companies are state owned, including resources (mining), refining, and producing weapons...

Compared to almost everything the US GOV and the West do, being for profit...

It seems to me that China's military budget dwarfs all of NATO, in terms of buying power.

Yet most seem to not consider this. Even in planning.

US air superiority means little, if each US plane costs 40x a Chinese plane, and each US plane is swarmed by 100 planes at once...

(Just an example, viable or not)

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#563

Post by rTX5CMRXIfFG »

amai wrote: post #490
ycombinete wrote: post #114

In his 1997 book The Grand Chessboard Zbigniew Brzezinski did say that if Europe went to war again it would start in Ukraine. Some choice quotes: “Ukraine, a new and important space on the Eurasian chessboard, is a geopolitical pivot because its very existence as an independent country helps to transform Russia. Without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be a Eurasian empire.” “However, if Moscow regains control over Ukraine,…

> “Ukraine, a new and important space on the Eurasian chessboard, is a geopolitical pivot because its very existence as an independent country helps to transform Russia. Without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be a Eurasian empire.” He claims that without any proof. This maybe would have been true in the 19th century given the technologies for war and power at that time. But we have the 21st century now. Why should the Ukr…

> Because if you want to be a world power in 21st century what you need is a huge economy.

Lol being a world power was never about the economy, it had always been about military strength. Americans might think that they are a superpower because they have one of the largest economies in the world, but that’s being totally small-minded and missing the fact that the reason why their economy is that big in the first place is that the purpose of economies is to power the military with networks, talent, and money.

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#564

Post by pqb »

synquid wrote: post #449
sillysaurusx wrote: post #352

I’m trying to help my programmer friend escape Ukraine. Since smuggling is a hack, I’d like to ask HN for suggestions on how to pull this off. His elderly father is being drafted. I got a DM from a mutual asking me whether there’s anything I could do for them. I have money but no knowledge of the country; they live there but have no money. During WW2, various affluent people helped smuggle Jews out of Germany. I’d li…

Poland will definitely accept them, they have publicly stated so.

Indeed, in the local news I could hear the Polish gov is preparing hotels and other accommodation places for people who will flee away from the conflict. I don't know the details but watch out, because there might many hotel owners, whose will want more money than they would usually take for a stay.

Edit: If they would decide leaving their country my very early tip is to download Google Translate with the all locales they know + country where they are. While you can find many people who speak Ukrainian/Russian in central EU countries, it is a priceless help for any foreigner. I had occasion to be a participant of a talk between people, who were writing the phrases on the screen to communicate. Since that moment, I have downloaded Ukrainian locale pack for offline use in Google Translate.

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#566

Post by sillysaurusx »

yonisto wrote: post #542
osynavets wrote: post #115

Kharkiv, 25 miles to Russia. Just want to say that we are strong, we are confident about our army and I hope that everything will be fine. I'm sorry that I share content like this on this platform, but that's my reality

I'm so sorry. But the truth is that you don't stand a chance. Russia will get what it wants (it got the support of China that will offset any sanctions the the West might impose) I really hope you will stay safe.

Everyone already knows that. It's not helpful to say it, you know.

Re: Russian forces invade Ukraine after Putin orders attack

#570

Post by jollybean »

keewee7 wrote: post #342
anshumankmr wrote: post #217

It is quite interesting to see publications like Jacobin posting obvious flame bait such as this: https://twitter.com/jacobin/status/1496693868955246599 . Even Tucker Carlson is parroting Russian propaganda. https://i.redd.it/pr9tnneyemj81.png I hope the Ukrainian people fight back as hard as they can and the governments of the world help them in any way they can.

Tucker Carlson and the rest of the Republican party's support for Russia boils down to "we need Russian support against China". Have they actually been to Russia? The country is intensely anti-Western and already on the verge of becoming a Chinese puppet state.

"Tucker Carlson and the rest of the Republican party's support for Russia boils down to "we need Russian support against China"."

No, it's definitely not that.

It's just use Russian talking points to 'Blame Democrats' and get ratings. That's it. It's just a wedge issue.

For Trump it's different. He sees everything in terms of personal relationships, and this sounds odd but I actually believe he thinks being on 'good personal terms' with Putin would be good for the countries. Like two Dynastic builders in NYC, getting on each other's 'good side'. Putin however is not like that at all, he's thinking about the legacy of his nation of himself, and of course, both men are representing states, and Trump's 'personal relationships' have nothing to do with real diplomacy or strategic issues.

Secondarily, Trump sucks up to powerful people, Trump was trying to build a tower in Moscow before becoming president, he offered Putin the Penthouse for free as a brand building exercise but also to smooth the permits and attract buyers. Much of Trumps properties take investments from rich people from around the world, aka 'ill gotten money' much of it Russian.

Warming up to Putin in such a personal way and defending him in the press was a novel thing for America and a lot of the populist movement with with him on it. Fox, some GOP and a lot of pundits used the opportunity to flip the narrative as well.

So unfortunately, no, Carlson and the Russian-appeasers in the GOP are not thinking geostrategically. It's just cynical politics.

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