I'm just going to go ahead here and state the obvious. The flu did not magically disappear and people with the flu are without any question being counted as counted as covid-19 cases.
Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic
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Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic
#562This should not come as a surprise, and it was largely predictable from the outset. The flu has a base reproduction number (R0) less than 2 ( https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/2020/12/07/covid-19... ). Covid has an R0 in the vicinity of 2.5 ( https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scena... ). In the meantime, public health measures like masking and distancing will work against both viruses. If…
> This should not come as a surprise, and it was largely predictable from the outset....the flu has a base reproduction number (R0) less than 2....Covid has an R0 in the vicinity of 2.5....In the meantime, public health measures like masking and distancing will work against both viruses....there's really no need for conspiracy theorizing. Assuming that this is due to "masking and distancing" and the small difference…
> Unlike Covid, kids are a significant vector of spread for influenza.
Children, in fact, have been hypothesized to be the primary reservoir for influenza.
The implication of this is that it would be much better to vaccinate all children against influenza rather than everybody else.
Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic
#563Earlier quoted context omitted.
You can do a LOT. I haven't been sick once in 6+ years because I do the following: 1) Almost never eat out. Home cooked meals that I've prepped / washed. This was single handedly the biggest factor that completely removed "getting sick" from my life. 2) Hand wash before touching face, or food. 3) Avoid sick people. If I hear someone coughing or sneezing, I move away from them. Call me a germ freak, I don't care, I've…
I don't think your anecdata proves anything but your own experience. 1. I eat out a lot, including junk food every now and then. 2. Of course I hand wash, but i would not say "before touching face" per-se, but as often as you'd normally expect (restroom breaks, before preparing food and/or eating, after coming from outside). 3. I don't really run away from sick people. I simply am indifferent. I still never get sick,…
I think junk food place in general is actually more hygienic.
Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic
#564This should not come as a surprise, and it was largely predictable from the outset. The flu has a base reproduction number (R0) less than 2 ( https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/2020/12/07/covid-19... ). Covid has an R0 in the vicinity of 2.5 ( https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scena... ). In the meantime, public health measures like masking and distancing will work against both viruses. If…
> In the meantime, public health measures like masking and distancing will work against both viruses.
This argument does not make sense because of the timing of the disappearance of the flu.
For example, NYS was having a really bad flu season before the Covid panic hit[1]. I am posting a link to my screenshot first because NYS flu tracker[1] is one of the stupidest web pages out there. Click on the "compare with previous seasons" heading on the page to get the current table.
The noteworthy part is the drop in flu cases between the 6th and 7th weeks during what seems like an exceptionally bad flu season.
Note also "Regulation for Prevention of Influenza Transmission by Healthcare and Residential Facility and Agency Personnel"[3]:
> As of December 5, 2019, influenza is prevalent in NYS.
> At this time, Section 2.59 of the New York State Sanitary Code (10 NYCRR § 2.59) requires all health care and residential facilities and agencies regulated pursuant to Article 28, 36, or 40 of the Public Health Law to ensure that all personnel, as defined in the regulation, not vaccinated against influenza for the current influenza season wear a surgical or procedure mask while in areas where patients or residents are typically present.
> This page will be updated when the status changes.
which apparently has not been updated since December 5, 2019.
[1]: https://twitter.com/sinan_unur/status/1368882698966667265
[2]: https://nyshc.health.ny.gov/web/nyapd/new-york-state-flu-tra...
[3]: https://www.health.ny.gov/diseases/communicable/influenza/se... (archived https://archive.is/wde1c>)
Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic
#565I was just commenting to a co-worker my entire family hasn't been sick since the pandemic started. That is very unusual for a family with young children. No flu, no stomach viruses, absolutely nothing for more than a year now. Thankfully no covid-19 either.
Same. An entire year plus without a single illness. I haven’t seen anything like it in my 48 years. I’m going to continue to wear a mask when out in public. Now I just need the people I associate with in private to do the same.
Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic
#566I'm just going to go ahead here and state the obvious. The flu did not magically disappear and people with the flu are without any question being counted as counted as covid-19 cases.
Firstly no one said it's magical: It's a direct result of the covid-19 measures, and was predicted to happen.
Secondly it hasn't disappeared, if you read the article it says there were 600 flu deaths (in the US) last year, where previously there were 20,000+.
Finally, all it takes is a quick test to confirm whether it's influenza or coronavirus.
Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic
#567Earlier quoted context omitted.
My layman understanding is that it doesn‘t work that way. Less spread = less chance of mutation = less chance of uber infectious new flu strain.
It's potentially the opposite. Say you have a population of 1000. If one person infects ten others. Then its going to be 3 generations before 1000 are infected and full immunity is reached. We go for a suppression strategy instead.If 1 person infects 1 other person (as we seem to be trying to achieve with corna) it is going to take 1000 generations before full immunity is achieved. There is going to be far more chanc…
If everybody has had the disease, what's the purpose of having full immunity?
However, I think this is right in one sense: an implicit or explicit strategy of keeping R0 as close as possible to 1 would be the strategy with the highest risk of significant mutations, as we have seen.
UK government ministers literally stated this to be their strategy.
Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic
#568Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Unlike Covid, kids are a significant vector of spread for influenza Kids are significant spreaders of both influenza and Covid (after school reopenings, in many countries kids become one of the top sources of inter-household Covid spread). They just tend to have mild or absent Covid symptoms and didn’t require regular testing for work etc., and therefore did not get consistently tested in most parts of the world. I…
Actually, what you're saying is untrue. The overwhelming evidence shows that children spread COVID less than adults do. My favorite is this: https://www.nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.1056/NEJMoa2006100?articleTo... The study isolated SARS-CoV-2 samples from every positive case, sequenced genome of virus, and tracked the mutation patterns. So, that will avoid a lot of the errors that improper qPCR usage can result in. First thi…
Interesting that this was getting downvoted. Obviously relates to what the poster above was saying about it being "politically incorrect."
We may disagree on what the science implies, but downvoting someone for sharing research means that people are refusing to listen to anything that disagrees with their preconceived notions.
(I guess perhaps the implicit assumption is that anyone pushing articles that show that kids are at less risk, or that kids don't spread Covid as well, must also be pushing for all kids to be running free and socializing?)
Edit: And now this comment is getting downvoted. Folks who disagree, why not speak up about what's wrong with the study, instead of just downvoting?
Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic
#569Earlier quoted context omitted.
Did we even test for the flu? Or did we just presume that flu cases were COIVD because the symptoms are so similar? The idea that the flu just 'disappeared' despite world trade continuing just sets off my bullshit detectors. Between all the countries that did little or nothing initially, and the people who refused to wear masks and didn't lock down...there's just no way it dropped to zero. Less? Sure. But gone? I sim…
Yes. They didn't just stop testing for flu when someone shows up with influenza-like illness (i.e. flu, covid). Maybe in some places where medical systems were already struggling in normal times, but not in developed nations certainly.
Most flu patients don’t get tested for flu.
Indeed, most flu patients don’t even see a doctor.
So, at the outset, the flu stats are coming from a very specific category of patients: in-patients and people with great insurance who have the time and money to get tested for the flu (even though it won’t make a bit of difference what the test says as it’ll be over in a couple weeks anyway.)
This second-category may be skewing things.
The personality-type that has a ‘need’ to know whether they have the flu was instead focused on Covid. They’d have the sniffles, go through a drive-through Covid testing site, get their negative result and breathe a sigh of relief. They would NOT however make an appointment with their doctor as they perhaps would have in years past as (a) they wanted to avoid sources of Covid, and (b) the doctors were discouraging appointments but for emergencies (and flu-like symptoms plus a negative Covid test, would not, in the patient’s mind, amount to an emergency.)
I doubt this explains all of the decrease in flu-positive tests. But, perhaps some of it.
Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic
#570This should not come as a surprise, and it was largely predictable from the outset. The flu has a base reproduction number (R0) less than 2 ( https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/2020/12/07/covid-19... ). Covid has an R0 in the vicinity of 2.5 ( https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scena... ). In the meantime, public health measures like masking and distancing will work against both viruses. If…
How can you explain people getting covid but not the flu when nothing changed when places started opening up? It sounds more like poor data reporting more than anything else and I will take that to my grave.
Flu is largely suppressed in summer anyway, with outbreaks moving from the northern to southern hemisphere, in time for winter, and back again.
So, it feels unsurprising that flu is relatively easy to suppress, since its spread is already fragile in normal times.
The combination of summer suppression and (continuing) hygiene measures has resulted in historic low levels of flu globally, which would need time to grow exponentially to even reach baseline levels.