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What went wrong with the Texas power grid?

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Re: What went wrong with the Texas power grid?

#561

Post by hotsauceror »

qbasic_forever wrote: post #454
pault wrote: post #426

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m in Austin, without power for almost 48 hours now. There’s ice in my roommate’s bedroom. It’s my birthday tomorrow, and I’m hearing that we won’t have power until Thursday at the earliest. I’ve gone beyond furious to just horribly depressed.

Good luck, and here's some advice from a midwesterner that has dealt with cold, ice, and snow forever. If it's cold enough to start freezing things inside then make sure you have some water flowing in your pipes. Keep your kitchen sink running on a low (very tiny) dribble. Maybe even keep a shower/bathrub running at a very low rate too. You do NOT want to be dealing with frozen, broken flooding pipes on top of no pow…

Also, leaving water trickling when you’re on a septic system can ruin your grinder pump because it stirs up the solids in the first separating tank. And, as I learned the hard way this week, even if all the faucets are dripping, there’s no way to trickle a toilet. The supply lines for both of our toilets froze while the sink next to them kept right in dripping. And then there’s the question of how to keep your water heater from bursting when the power goes out and it can’t heat anything.

Re: What went wrong with the Texas power grid?

#562

Post by zamadatix »

leesalminen wrote: post #297
MSM wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are a number of countries with very high renewable usage that are in cold climates. Denmark comes to mind, where, on average, it's right around freezing for months at a time. Hell, they have turbines in the extremely corrosive oceans, getting blasted by freezing rain and they make it work. Last I saw they got something like 50% of their power from wind. Anyone who is using this event to say that renewables are…

I’m definitely not saying renewables are a bad idea, but I think there are some flaws in your comparison. For one, the delta from 32F (right around freezing) to 65F (heated home temp) is much less than 0F to 65F. Second, I’d imagine that buildings in Denmark are designed for this kind of cold. Unlike Texas where many homes have much less insulation because it rarely gets this cold. Both of these issues would compound…

> For one, the delta from 32F (right around freezing) to 65F (heated home temp) is much less than 0F to 65F

Not sure what you're trying to say with this point, the average low of e.g. Dallas is 39F not 0F. I'm quite sure the record low in Denmark is going to be lower than the record low in Dallas if that's what you intended to compare instead.

The second issue is valid logic for why you need higher peak generation not why renewables can't supply it. Wind was overproducing estimates, the problem wasn't wind couldn't provide during the load period it was that the plants of all types weren't prepared to operate in the cold.

.

I think the main differences are:

- Denmark is part of a larger grid system instead of independent

- Denmark pays more for electricity

- Denmark prepares its equipment for extreme conditions

and I think these are all true for all power sources.

Re: What went wrong with the Texas power grid?

#563

Post by refurb »

pasttense01 wrote: post #401
refurb wrote: post #271

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the big lesson here is “when you have extreme weather events, things can go wrong”. No more than that. To say this can always be avoided is misleading. When black swan events happen, shit goes bad.

Of course it could have been avoided: much of the rest of the country has much colder weather regularly than this "extreme" Texas cold weather event. And the solution is to winterize the power generating facilities. And this type event regularly happens in Texas every couple decades or so. Look at what happened in 1989 for example. https://spectrumlocalnews.com/tx/san-antonio/weather/2021/02...

Of course it could have been avoided: much of the rest of the country has much colder weather regularly than this "extreme" Texas cold weather event.

That's my point. Other parts of the country have "colder weather regularly". Texas doesn't.

Re: What went wrong with the Texas power grid?

#564

Post by cjbprime »

zero_deg_kevin wrote: post #552
Animats wrote: post #546

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Would customers be willing to pay 20% more for electric power to prevent a once a decade event?

Are customers being asked to pay 20% more? 20 whole percent more?

It would be interesting to see a plot of price vs. uptime in the face of unlikely events for electric grids, and which spot on the curve has been chosen here.

There are definitely points on such curves, of course, where you've exhausted the sweet spot and just have the option of paying e.g. 3x as much for a very modest marginal decrease in risk. But that doesn't sound like the case here.

Re: What went wrong with the Texas power grid?

#565

Post by sjg007 »

chasd00 wrote: post #548
mikesabbagh wrote: post #270

It is surprising that windfarms are freezing. Here in Quebec, we have windfarms that have more than 6 months a year of snow and temperatures much below the freezing point. How can they freeze? they dont use water or gaz or oil. It is only a fan and dynamo. Did water seep inside and freeze it?

Quebec has the “winter package” on the wind turbines Texas does not. Keep in mind, these conditions are almost unheard of in Texas and the infrastructure just isn’t designed for it. Like when it’s 95F in Chicago for a week and all hell breaks loose. Different regions are geared for the norms of their climate.

Which is dumb because it's not that much more to make the system reliable in all climates. Especially considering climate change.

Re: What went wrong with the Texas power grid?

#566

Post by yellowait44 »

tharkun__ wrote: post #536
bdamm wrote: post #253

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A tight wood stove in the hands of an experienced user is a remarkable thing. The amount of heat that can be extracted from a large oak log is nothing short of remarkable. Sadly, most wood stoves are not tight, nor are most users experienced.

Cold climate here (Quebec) and we heat with electricity usually. Many people have an electric furnace (forced air) or even baseboard (what I have for example). We also have a heat pump (heats the upstairs very well until about -15C and provides awesome AC for the entire house in summer). For Power outages and also coz its just awesomely warm: propane fireplace. All the benefits of a wood fireplace with none of the do…

LPG or Propane is awesome down until -42 celsius. Then it’s basically useless as it won’t vaporize. Live in Quebec too and my backup is a dual fuel generator. Propane and then regular fuel if it’s too cold or I’m out of propane. Never too careful!

Re: What went wrong with the Texas power grid?

#567

Post by newacct583 »

cavisne wrote: post #463
bbreier wrote: post #447

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you might have missed this important line: > Most of the power knocked offline came from thermal sources, Woodfin said, particularly natural gas.

backup generation (gas) is not working. As mentioned. When your only on-demand source of generation is only profitable in peak periods its a recipe for disaster.

Texas gas plants aren't "backup generation". Those are always available, almost always on, full-time-operated facilities.

Re: What went wrong with the Texas power grid?

#568

Post by sjg007 »

nrmitchi wrote: post #408
s0rce wrote: post #303

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Different choice of lubricants? I have no idea really, I also read they have wind power generation in Antarctica so its not a fundamental problem just a result of certain design/engineering choices.

> just a result of certain design/engineering choices I think this is the point. Things are engineered for the environment which they are expected to operate, and to be optimized for those environments[0]. I would not expect a wind turbine that operates (and is designed to operate) in Antartica to not fail (potentially catestrophically) when operating in 100 degree Texas heat, [0] One could (and should) argue that th…

Cars operate across a spectrum of climates... no reason your power plant should not.

Re: What went wrong with the Texas power grid?

#569

Post by refurb »

StillBored wrote: post #417
falcolas wrote: post #373

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure this is a truly "black swan" event. Cold fronts that bring snow and cold temperatures to Texas are becoming more and more frequent. This is simply the worst one so far .

Apparently its not, there was one in the 1940's that was worse. So its the usual "ignore any outlier we don't like" attitude that seems common in so many things. Plus, its not like this is unusual. The random unexpected heat wave in oct -> rolling blackouts. Unexpected storm during hurricane season -> power goes out for a week due to unmaintained power lines, etc. Its why you need engineers running your grid, not som…

Your most recent example is 80 years ago?

And yeah, politics is involved. Unless the engineers want to work for free and fundraise for infrastructure, they need to compete for limited resources.

Re: What went wrong with the Texas power grid?

#570

Post by JamesBarney »

gregw2 wrote: post #213
gregw2 wrote: post #117

What went wrong is that the Texas legislature which owns Texas-specific grid process to avoid interference from the Feds didn't figure out how to also ensure Texas generator companies got compensated for weatherizing (and ensuring it was done). How many of the 24+6 recommendations from the NERC/FERC review of last time this happened in Texas (hint:2011) were taken up by the legislature or those at ERCOT they delegate…

Anecdote: All 7 developers in my Houston team (semi-geographically scattered in the city) lost power; half for >24 hrs (it's 10-25 degrees F here for the last 2-3 days). Most lost water for some stretch of time and some still don't have it. I don't think any completely lost heat (most have gas) but at least one person found their gas fireplace they were hoping would heat them up when out of power didn't really work t…

I'm surprised they have natural gas heat. Everyone I know has electric heat.

I've been without power for 2 days and it sucks. My house was 34 degrees this morning. No water for 2 days.

Most of my friends are in the same boat.

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