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Ercot nearly at capacity for Texas power grid

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Re: Ercot nearly at capacity for Texas power grid

#561

Post by tgtweak »

ubermonkey wrote: post #457
bombcar wrote: post #441

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hate open concept with enough fury to heat all of Texas to boiling. They’re clearly built and sold to people who never have had to try to keep kids out of things. And even worse are houses badly “opened up” - thereby ruining whatever design was originally in place.

Well, as childfree people, that was an appeal.

My home is majority open concept on 2 of 3 floors with high ceilings and even with 3 kids I can say it's more appealing than those 1-room-per-100sqft 80s/90s layouts. Turns out kids are people too and enjoy nice spaces just the same.

Re: Ercot nearly at capacity for Texas power grid

#562

Post by NicoJuicy »

cameronh90 wrote: post #25
don-code wrote: post #10

Some time ago, I worked for a defunct energy company that provided demand-side relief in exactly this scenario - when total system load outstrips total system capacity, we'd begin taking actions on behalf of end users, not the utility. Lights would turn off, generators would spin up, fridge temperatures would be raised. ERCOT (Texas) is an interesting case in that it can't import power from other states as easily - i…

Preface: I know very little about power grids, but had a couple thoughts. In the UK, there is a system of load shedding that is tied to the grid frequency. My understanding is that some industrial users agree terms where they get cheaper rates but if the demand outstrips supply, they are first to be cut. This load shedding is implemented by components that monitor the grid frequency, and if it drops below a fixed val…

They are not "cut", those industrial users ( mostly in chemistry) get paid to power down.

They could receive more money to power down than to work, so they do that when it's interesting enough..

The electricity net is really fragile. You need to guess averages to the system as a whole, so there's not much flunctuation. Renewable energy is an extra variable too.

Some additional reserves can be powered on/off to make the system stable.

Ps. If you cross those averages by 5% for example, you get a hefty fine, so monitoring your power outage is really important.

Source: worked at a company monitoring this for multiple countries.

Re: Ercot nearly at capacity for Texas power grid

#563

Post by tgtweak »

commandlinefan wrote: post #542
tgtweak wrote: post #375

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Seems to be a combination of many things (a perfect storm...): • Dwellings are not insulated to the same level as their northern counterparts. Over 60% of houses in Texas have single pane glass. • Texas seems to rely substantially on heat pumps for residential heating, with fallback to resistive heating. At 10°f very few heat pumps can supply sufficient heat to keep even a decently insulated house properly heated - m…

The roads here aren’t designed for snow either. My heat went out on Friday and I can’t even get the heater replaced because the trucks that deliver heaters can’t get through the roads.

Would be quite inefficient for municipalities to have plows and salt/sand spreaders sitting around for a decade not being used. Similarly for garages and distributors to carry winter tires.

Re: Ercot nearly at capacity for Texas power grid

#564

Post by tgtweak »

jacquesm wrote: post #304
airhead969 wrote: post #218

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Time-dependent solutions to temperature change across a gradient are exponential decay functions that solve diff eqs based on Newton's law of cooling. It depends mostly on the insulation and the temperature difference. While it is 10 F outside, the central heating system for my apartment in a 6-story building cannot maintain temperature. It is 66 F and gradually falling. I would guess it would be 2.5kW running 24/7.

25KW more likely

Probably closer to this than 2.5kw. 2.5kw on a decently modern heat pump should be providing 25k btu. About enough to heat a 2000sqft house ~50f over ambient.

Re: Ercot nearly at capacity for Texas power grid

#565

Post by exabrial »

One thing about efficiency: How does one pass the liability of crap insulation onto landlords? I see this as a huge issue. As a tenant, you can't replace the windows, upgrade appliances, etc. We have unbelievable regulations that are choking home owners, but this seems like a much bigger target.

Re: Ercot nearly at capacity for Texas power grid

#567

Post by sn9 »

Scoundreller wrote: post #271
sn9 wrote: post #258

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And with windchill, it's well below 0°F. I've lived in Texas all my life and can't remember the last time that happened.

> And with windchill, it's well below 0°F. You won't feel the windchill inside, but it will amplify the impact of draughty buildings/poor insulation.

Yeah it's crazy. The water pressure in my apartment has dropped so much I basically don't have running water. The upstream pipes must be mostly frozen.

Luckily I stocked up on soup before all this so I'll last until the freeze breaks.

Re: Ercot nearly at capacity for Texas power grid

#568

Post by eigenvector »

a9h74j wrote: post #347
eigenvector wrote: post #216

Earlier quoted context omitted.

ERCOT is pretty good about releasing their event analysis after the fact. I think the main issue with renewables is not inherent unreliability but that grid operators do not understand the potential contingencies as well as with conventional generation sources. SPP has put out some good analyzes of recent max generation events there involving large amounts of wind being unavailable in cold snaps. It turns out no one…

Somewhat off topic, but are regulators also considering mandating Basalt rebar in wind tower foundations, prohibiting steel rebar? I don't know what the re-use story is for foundation plus tower, but it seems to me a bad idea to start with the assumption of rusting out the foundations.

I haven't heard of that here in North America, but I'll add that I'm not up to speed on global developments.

In general, wind turbine foundations are considered to have a fixed lifespan of 25-30 years. If re-powering occurs at end of life, it may be with a larger turbine that requires a new foundation anyway, so not much thought is given to foundation re-use.

Re: Ercot nearly at capacity for Texas power grid

#569

Post by okaram »

tgtweak wrote: post #448
ubermonkey wrote: post #412

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Greetings from Texas. Yeah, all that is true. You build based on how things usually are, or at least usually WERE when the dwelling was built. I live in Houston -- very close to downtown, so I'm only about 50 miles from the Gulf of Mexico. This makes it VERY FUCKING WEIRD INDEED that my entire yard is covered in snow, and it is 16F outside. This is NOT Houston weather. It's almost unprecedented -- it's certainly neve…

I'll add that up here in the great north - we also use combined air conditioner/heat pumps but in most cases spring for the "low temperature" models with a built in defroster and higher pressure refrigerant - allowing them to heat down to -18°f. This would almost never make sense in a southern climate where it happens once every 20 years. Likewise, investing in any high efficiency/dual-source heating setup would not…

Bubble wrap produces very decent insulation for single-pane windows.

Re: Ercot nearly at capacity for Texas power grid

#570

Post by tgtweak »

ubermonkey wrote: post #555
aftbit wrote: post #509

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I remember my parents covering my old leaky single-pane windows in our first house with plastic in the winter. It looks goofy, but it's cheap and it really helps. We also had storm windows that we'd replace our screens with in the winter. We later moved to a house with newer windows that removed this need, and adult me has a ground source heat pump so I'm toasty even with the 15°F weather here.

Anticipating the cold snap, my wife ordered insulating curtains for the big windows on the front of the house, to hang behind the decorative ones. I figured it was more an example of "must do something" than "activity that will actually help," but I was proven wrong IMMEDIATELY. They've made a material difference (no pun intended), and I'm said I said no when she asked if I wanted some for my office.

She's a keeper :)
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