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One pollster’s explanation for why the polls got it wrong

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Re: One pollster’s explanation for why the polls got it wrong

#561

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I didn't downvote you but I don't subscribe to conspiracy theories. I voted for Trump because I like his style. I like that he pushes back when attacked. I like that he hasn't started any wars. I like my tax return. I like that he renegotiated NAFTA and trade with China. I like that he's getting Arab states to make peace with Israel.

What specifically do you like about the USMCA vs NAFTA? Do you feel it was worth the alienation of Canada as an ally? What advantages do you feel have been gained in trade with China? Wouldn't it have been more productive to work with allies on that front, rather than launching a unilateral trade war? Are these really the reasons you like him, or are they justifications? I agree that not starting wars is good (except…

USMCA plugs a hole in NAFTA. It had been easy for non-NAFTA countries, particularly China, to import things into the USA via Mexico. USMCA mostly stops that. Canada isn't so alienated. The prime minister may be unhappy that his own failure was exposed, but the people got cheaper dairy. Even if Canada were alienated, it just wouldn't matter much.

It is usually best for the USA to act in a unilateral way. This is due to power. Working with multiple other parties is typically a harmful distraction. I get that some people are horrified by this, but it's clearly true, and the president's job is to put the USA first. Coalitions are for the weak.

His style is fun. There is nothing wrong with fun. It's a nice bonus, though hardly a reason to vote for the man. The same goes for getting globalist communists angry. It's a nice bonus. There are far more important reasons to support Trump.

The definition of "lie" has become absurdly biased. It's a "lie" if Trump makes a joke, exaggerates a bit, uses sarcasm, or has a few percent error on a number. Meanwhile, his opponents endlessly repeat proven falsehoods. Partisan division and anger were ramped up by his opponents, particularly in the media. There would be no division at all if people would simply accept the Trump plan for America.

We haven't had a non-narcissist president or candidate since Eisenhower, so clearly that isn't anything that matters.

You say he "is in the process of undermining confidence in the democratic process itself", as if it is his responsibility to sweep flaws under the carpet. His opponents have fought hard against anything and everything that could be used to prove fraud. (suspicious...) How can you support this situation, purposely being unaware of the extent of fraud? Unjustified confidence should be undermined. Unjustified confidence is harmful. We should not blindly trust a supposedly democratic process that would be easy to corrupt.

I'm looking back at you in disbelief. To use your wording: I would truly like to understand what could bring a reasonable, knowledgeable person to vote against Trump. (in either election) Are you in fact knowledgeable? DKIM proves corruption for both Hillary and Biden. The first time I chose Trump, I didn't trust him, but I knew that Hillary despised normal Americans and that she had committed crimes that would put any normal person in prison. I was shocked that Trump actually followed through on most campaign promises, and that earned him my enthusiastic support.

Re: One pollster’s explanation for why the polls got it wrong

#562
post #560

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, I think that's a separate category. I've tried to engage with a number of Trump supporters, as I'd really like to understand how reasonable, ethical people could vote for someone I see as so despicable and dangerous. Obviously I'm missing something, and I honestly don't want to think that half the US population is unreasonable on unethical. I've found that the most reasonable people tend to be staunchly pro lif…

If you're missing something, it's probably because you dismiss what was said. I've seen that happen all too often. For example, suppose a person doesn't want to become a linguistic or religious minority in their own country. When they logically oppose immigration, do you decide that you're hearing a dogwhistle for white supremacy? If so, you're discarding what was actually said and you're substituting false data that…

I don't know what to say besides that I disagree with almost every single aspect of what you wrote, on either a factual or a moral basis. Often both. Honestly though, we're so far off that I think itemizing everything I disagree with here would be a waste of time. So instead, I'll list what I do agree with. First to answer your question, I don't believe most Trump supporters are racist, although I would suggest you really analyze why decreasing linguistic or religious dominance is threatening to you. I agree that the first (but not only) duty of any world leader is to the people of their country. I agree that cutting regulations, cutting taxes, and encouraging low interest rates likely helped the economy (although other effects of some of those regulatory cuts, especially on climate, are very concerning to me).

And to answer your final question, the most recent example of Trump not caring about the damage he does is him currently undermining faith in the democratic process itself in order to avoid admitting defeat. More generally, he will always take opportunities to fire up his base despite any deleterious effects on national unity. And yes, also his actions and rhetoric toward strong allies such as Canada. Framing such as "parasitic countries" is both inaccurate and diplomatically unproductive - from you, but especially from a world leader. I would go further into why I disagree with that approach, but that would lead me into all the things I disagree with here. So instead I'll just ask you to do some research on your other points outside of right-wing sources. The most clear-cut one is this thing about Pelosi's son, so maybe start there.

Re: One pollster’s explanation for why the polls got it wrong

#563
post #560

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you're missing something, it's probably because you dismiss what was said. I've seen that happen all too often. For example, suppose a person doesn't want to become a linguistic or religious minority in their own country. When they logically oppose immigration, do you decide that you're hearing a dogwhistle for white supremacy? If so, you're discarding what was actually said and you're substituting false data that…

I don't know what to say besides that I disagree with almost every single aspect of what you wrote, on either a factual or a moral basis. Often both. Honestly though, we're so far off that I think itemizing everything I disagree with here would be a waste of time. So instead, I'll list what I do agree with. First to answer your question, I don't believe most Trump supporters are racist, although I would suggest you r…

The fear of other language and religion is reasonable. In fact, I'd have to say that a person is extremely foolish if they don't fear it. Language is how we communicate. Communication failure creates isolation, hostility, and loss of productivity. You can see that the map of linguistic diversity at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Linguistic_diversity_index looks an awful lot like a map of poverty, strife, and general failure to be part of the modern world. There is a connection. Religion just made the news a week or two ago in France, with a teacher's head getting cut off. Pretending these issues don't exist doesn't solve them.

Other aspects of culture matter too. It's just more comfortable to know that your neighbors laugh at the same jokes, celebrate the same holidays, and so on. People who want different can leave, but people who want the same have no option other than to fight to keep their culture from being overrun.

This idea that there is a problem with "undermining faith in the democratic process itself" suggests that the most important thing in a fraudulent election is to hide the flaws. I hope you were at least fair about that, not complaining at all when Trump or Bush won. I hope you opposed taking those elections to the supreme court. Lots of people claimed that those three elections were stolen, and lots of people even rioted. If you had any complaints whatsoever about those far-cleaner elections, you're just being partisan. I happen to believe that there is a duty to expose problems, including any way by which fraud could go undetected. We shouldn't just trust that an election could be clean; it is dirty until proven clean. The fact that the left has vigorously opposed election integrity efforts is shameful and highly suspicious. If you'd rather Trump didn't have a legitimate argument that the election was stolen, maybe you should have cooperated in securing it against all possible fraud.

Have you found the perhaps-mythical unbiased news source? Are there any non-right-wing sources that don't censor the news and maliciously spread misinformation? Anything that spread the Russia hoax or "fine people" hoax is disqualified immediately. If the news source didn't fully cover the Biden laptop, it is censored. Full coverage includes at least a description of where to find the video of Hunter naked and worse with his niece, and it includes mention of the email being DKIM verified. The news is censored if it didn't included coverage of Biden's sundowning and other signs of dementia. The news is censored if it never tied the Ukraine controversy back to Joe Biden being caught on video bragging about how he got the Ukrainian prosecutor fired by threatening to block a billion dollars of foreign aid.

Re: One pollster’s explanation for why the polls got it wrong

#564
post #563

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know what to say besides that I disagree with almost every single aspect of what you wrote, on either a factual or a moral basis. Often both. Honestly though, we're so far off that I think itemizing everything I disagree with here would be a waste of time. So instead, I'll list what I do agree with. First to answer your question, I don't believe most Trump supporters are racist, although I would suggest you r…

The fear of other language and religion is reasonable. In fact, I'd have to say that a person is extremely foolish if they don't fear it. Language is how we communicate. Communication failure creates isolation, hostility, and loss of productivity. You can see that the map of linguistic diversity at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Linguistic_diversity_index looks an awful lot like a map of poverty, strife, and general f…

[flagged]

Re: One pollster’s explanation for why the polls got it wrong

#565

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know a lot of Trump voters, and I’m not aware of any who believe these things. It might be my own bubble, though. They voted almost exclusively due to the abortion issue.

Yeah, I think that's a separate category. I've tried to engage with a number of Trump supporters, as I'd really like to understand how reasonable, ethical people could vote for someone I see as so despicable and dangerous. Obviously I'm missing something, and I honestly don't want to think that half the US population is unreasonable on unethical. I've found that the most reasonable people tend to be staunchly pro lif…

In response to https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25132392 which doesn't have a reply link: being open to other viewpoints doesn't mean automatic acceptance. I do listen and think. I'm not very likely to change my whole value system though, and I'm not about to trust news sources that have long histories of dishonesty. Remember that much of your news media couldn't even be honest about Trump feeding koi in Japan, editing the video to suggest that he rudely disrespected the ceremony. That news bubble is a bad one to be in.

The purpose of an open mind is to close on the truth, but that should be more like science than dogma. New information can change conclusions.

My value system is largely focused on the success of my descendants, including distant ones not yet born. They will prosper best if they have complete dominance for their country, culture, language, and religion. They are more likely to die off otherwise. To prosper they also must avoid the mistake of leftist government (socialism, communism, etc.) because that killed over 100 million people in the 20th century and it's still killing people today.

Answering a couple more points from your original comment here: I don't just enjoy watching Trump troll libs, but I do enjoy it. There is nothing wrong with a bit of fun. People on the right don't believe Fox anymore, and haven't for several years. There was an ownership and control change, with Roger Ailes dead and Rupert Murdoch mostly gone. Aside from two major commentary/interview shows, Fox is now leftist. Fox even hired Donna Brazile, the disgraced former head of the Democratic National Committee.

You mention that you despise the very thought of Trump because of the way he acts and how he doesn't care about the damage he does. OK, so what about that crime bill? I mean the one that put lots of black people in prison for crack. Joe Biden fought hard to pass it, Kamala Harris eagerly used it to put black people in prison with huge sentences, Hunter Biden was immune from it while smoking crack, and Donald Trump signed a prison reform law to stop the harm. How can you not despise the very thought of Biden because of the way he acts and how he doesn't care about the damage he does?

As you say, "I'd really like to understand how reasonable, ethical people could vote for someone I see as so despicable and dangerous." Yes, me too, but the other way. The 100 million are dead, and more are dying. The war in Iraq, supported by Biden, killed plenty. A few decades of life in prison is roughly equivalent to a death, and there were an awful lot of those. Perhaps you can explain why all these things are reasonable and ethical?

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