Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

bloomberg.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

561–570 of 671 posts

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#561

Post by dv_dt »

throw0101a wrote: post #431
dv_dt wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you read Ray Dalio, he seems think think the next recession will be a "debt supercycle" which could be worse than 2008. (this could be him plugging his hedge fund, but he's semi retired, and really has no more money needed to make personally) Note also that recessions have been growing longer each cycle. IMHO it's related to the bottom 99% having been getting paid smaller and smaller portions of wealth, and so a b…

> If you read Ray Dalio ... Where does he publish his stuff?

https://www.principles.com/#get-the-books

Big Debt Crisis is an interesting read if you have an interest in his economic outlook. Still a free pdf I see..

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#562

Post by pb7 »

chrstphrhrt wrote: post #117
dragontamer wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This is exactly the problem, where bonds are no longer providing interest payments. If interest rates drop even more, the value of bonds go up. Right now, a 1.68% 10-year bond looks like it sucks. But next year, a 1.68% 9-year bond will beat the pants off of a 1.3% 10-year. You can sell a 1.68% 9-year bond for a lot more money when everyone else only has 1.3% 10-year bonds. If the 10-year drops to 1%, you'll make e…

I know nothing of finance, but I have a normal liquid savings account that's paying 2.25%, apparently "permanently". Why would anyone buy a less-flexible product that pays less?

It's not permanent, it fluctuates with the Fed's interest rates.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#563

Post by dv_dt »

tunesmith wrote: post #512
dv_dt wrote: post #411

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I haven't ever seen anything from him that says we've gone through it already - he cagey about exactly when (and that's the correct view imo) the next big recession hits, but I see him trying to lay groundwork to allow a few paradigm shifts in how governments have to take on new financial tools if we want to stay stable - e.g. helicopter money. You could get his "Big Debt Crisis" book (I got the free pdf on rollout),…

He's referred to 2008 as the end of the long-term debt cycle, and the ten years since then as the reflation period.

I don't think he saw 2008 as the end as much as it was the start of the end game - the debts have definitely come to any sort of deleveraging beautiful or ugly, and certainly no resolution of the fundamental inequality the Dalio was identifying as a root concern.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#564

Post by asdf21 »

specialist wrote: post #444
refurb wrote: post #319

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You might want to consider the idea that people who disagree with you politically might in fact not be dumb, but just have views that differ from yours. Just a thought.

I now doubt IQ, values, beliefs are even a factor. A relation of mine went from studying marine biology to full on fundie. Creationism, climate denial, etc. Huge Trump supporter too, of course. Can any one explain to me how a one time scientist now doubts evolution?

It's a belief system that is naturally selected for, for one thing.

How many liberal atheists do you know with 4+ kids, versus conservatives?

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#565

Post by ethbro »

pdonis wrote: post #553
ethbro wrote: post #327

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Inflation is a consequence of money spent foolishly. The same arguments were made against the New Deal. Time will tell whether recapitalizing the American educational system and/or cost-limiting health care is wise or foolish.

> Inflation is a consequence of money spent foolishly No, it's a consequence of printing money as soon as the newly printed money gets out into the economy. The only reason the previous rounds of QE in the last decade didn't cause inflation was that practically all of it stayed in the banks' accounts at the Fed and never got loaned out, so it never actually got into the economy. > The same arguments were made against…

Inflation is size of economy / money supply.

Printing more money doesn't inexorably produce inflation, for a lot of reasons. If the money printed is used unwisely, in ways that do not grow the economy, then it certainly does.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#566

Post by logfromblammo »

JeremyNT wrote: post #265
empath75 wrote: post #213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the thought has always been that the president was using a high leverage negotiating strategy Whose thought? The people who didn't know that trump was an incompetent nutjob?

Regardless of the man himself, historically the "deep state" (for lack of a better phrase) has so much inertia that radical changes (even if desired) by the White House end up moderated. I think it's more correct to say that people are realizing that the old order under the president is gradually eroding and its moderating effects are weakening, which adds compounding risks (directly in the trade war stuff but also h…

When you finally fire (or force out by constructive dismissal) the last person stopping you from driving off the cliff, those precious seconds of freefall are not quite long enough to formulate a viable cliff-bottom recovery plan.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#567

Post by kaitai »

ryacko wrote: post #410
dragontamer wrote: post #389

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is that "Deep State" is a loaded term. You could very well argue that the N-word is a historically accurate (and Latin) way to describe African Americans. Instead of using "Deep State", it might be better to say "Agency Directors", if you wanted to use neutral language. "Deep State" is loaded. Of course, its more popular these days to value-signal which side of an argument you're on, rather than appearing…

So you don’t have to play ball in order to be cycled from public sector to private sector to high level government positions along with the attendant corporate lobbying to Congress on approving various government positions? It’s a pipeline and someone has their hands on the valves.

I don't quite understand what you're trying to say. Could you elaborate?

For instance, in Washington DC there is certainly a pipeline from public to private to high level to lobbying to etc., but I think what the +parent posters is referring to encompasses the scientists at the EPA and the USDA, the doctors and nurses and managers at the VA, etc etc. They tend to get a job there after a bit of moving around and then stay 40 years. There is no trading out to private sector -- they generally get a gov't job because of a combined desire for altruism and good benefits and stability -- and the vast majority would never even be offered, much less accept, a lobbying position.

Source: family in such positions, who just want to examine and regulate the wastewater output of cheese factories in the heartland and go home after a good day's work. Said member was forced out of their job recently due to politics -- not "business-friendly" enough.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#568

Post by manigandham »

mwfunk wrote: post #262
skrowl wrote: post #229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He made billions of dollars in real estate and other industries, then when on to become POTUS. HOW CAN ONE MAN BE SO INCOMPETENT!?!

WRT making billions of dollars, clearly he didn't. WRT getting elected, he got 3mil fewer votes than his opponent, so you can thank the dysfunction of the EC. WRT to the votes he did get, it's pretty obvious- people dumber than he is, who are apparently blind to seeing his completely obvious con artist act and voting for him, that's how. By completely obvious I mean, the-sky-is-blue, 1+1=2 obvious. That's how obvious…

> he got 3mil fewer votes than his opponent, so you can thank the dysfunction of the EC

Why is the electoral college dysfunctional when it goes against the popular vote, even though it's designed to be able to do so? This has happened several times before without issue.

Not all Trump voters are "people dumber than he is". That's a ridiculous generalization and little more than morally-superior posturing. People are much more complicated with their choices then you may believe.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#570

Post by justsee »

joshlegs wrote: post #528
dobleboble wrote: post #355

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"federal government" is probably a better term than "deep state" unless you're intentionally trying to be inflammatory...

hell, or even just good ole 'institutionalism'. "Deep state" sure does imply conspiracies afoot, and it's hardly such a thing. really it's just plain ole bureaucracy

Deep state is very much a thing: https://billmoyers.com/2014/02/21/anatomy-of-the-deep-state/

Dismissing it as a thing and calling it plain ole bureaucracy is quite a naive worldview.

Post reply on HN