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Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

reuters.com

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Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#551

Post by somenameforme »

freejazz wrote: post #538
somenameforme wrote: post #533

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not really sure what you're trying to say. Perhaps I don't know what you mean by "make a difference." But providing accurate odds on a wide array of topics isn't yelling fire in a crowded theater and the results of the election did reflect the polymarket odds.

But you already conceded the odds were not accurate. > But providing accurate odds on a wide array of topics isn't yelling fire in a crowded theater and the results of the election did reflect the polymarket odds. I didn't say they were. You are making the broad meaningless distinction of implying that the "information" provided by "prediction markets" has any value. If it does not have value, what is the point of ha…

Oh boy. You don't even know how prediction markets or even odds work, at all, yet are abnormally strongly opinionated on the topic, and just assume you know everything without bothering to even check once. Of course. Prediction markets are binary yes/no. When Polymarket prices Trump as a 2:1 favorite, that does not mean he's expected to win 66% of the vote, but that if you ran the election 3 times, he'd be expected to win twice.

Polymarket's accuracy (as defined by an event corresponding with the majority position) is 90% a month out from an event, and 94% 4 hours out from an event. I suspect a weighted analysis (e.g. a 90% event should happen 9 of 10 times, not 100%) would show even better results. That is dramatically higher than you get from things like pollsters, and it's all freely available to the public.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#552

Post by pu_pe »

cthor wrote: post #539
pu_pe wrote: post #466

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Smaller markets are easily swayed by not so much money. Arbitrage is difficult because there is an inherent threat that you're betting against insider information. In this specific case it's clear that the market doesn't represent our collective knowledge about hantavirus at all. Twenty days ago the odds of a hantavirus pandemic being declared by the WHO were ~10% and now it's 5%. This is just a reflection of the new…

That is not surprising. If your point is that 10% is not 5% and the odds change over time then you have unreasonable expectations. It's not an oracle. Where did I say it was? I said it's a quick and robust signal. Of course there's plenty of ways to get alpha, but those require both effort and domain expertise. Is this a standard you hold to any other single signal? Name it. What signal (a) predicted <3% over a month…

There is no substitute for effort and domain expertise, that's my point. Polymarket would like you to believe that their odds represent some sort of collective knowledge, but they don't, it's not like the world's top experts in epidemiology are trading on this issue. Worse, as I explained someone might be trying to manipulate the odds to their benefit, which for the particular case you cited would be quite cheap to do.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#553

Post by torcete »

jimnotgym wrote: post #484
the_gipsy wrote: post #482

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is nothing undemocratic about this. The law was already there, a minister in Spain does not only propose or vote on laws, but has quite some executive influence. This has always been so and is nothing unusual. You can't really operate this stuff in a vacuum, otherwise it would take years to take any actions against illegal gambling, way too late.

Agree, the ministry just applied the existing law. Simple.

Again, assuming separation of powers: In a democracy, ministries are part of the executive branch. Their role is to follow and implement the law, not to judge violations.

If a law is violated, then a judge, and not a ministry, should be the one to enforce it.

When an administrative body blocks access to a service without prior judicial oversight, it blurs the line between the executive and the judiciary. And since separation of powers is a key component of any democracy, this raises legitimate concerns about the quality of democratic checks and balances.

Just to be clear: I’m not arguing that unlicensed online gambling sites should remain accessible. The issue is how the restriction is carried out, and whether it respects democratic principles and institutional roles.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#554

Post by the_gipsy »

torcete wrote: post #553
jimnotgym wrote: post #484

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agree, the ministry just applied the existing law. Simple.

Again, assuming separation of powers: In a democracy, ministries are part of the executive branch. Their role is to follow and implement the law, not to judge violations. If a law is violated, then a judge, and not a ministry, should be the one to enforce it. When an administrative body blocks access to a service without prior judicial oversight, it blurs the line between the executive and the judiciary. And since se…

It's simply not correct that a judge must always enforce a sentence before any executive action. This is the same everywhere in the world: the executive can take certain preventive or direct action without judiciary. Otherwise just nothing would work, criminals would have it very easy.

You may argue that blocking internet access should always go through judiciary, for some reason. But you can't claim that this was undemocratic, that's just spewing bullshit for the sake of it.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#555

Post by HappMacDonald »

mothballed wrote: post #340
sebastiennight wrote: post #323

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This logic is how we ended up with TSA. "What do you mean, people used to just walk up to planes with their shoes on and a FULL 8-ounce water bottle in hand with barely any physical security?" It's easier to stop incentivizing people to ruin the commons, vs. trying to strengthen the commons against all possible adversarial behavior.

We ended up with locked cockpits that the pilots won't open for anybody, plus passengers willing to fight back due to the tragedy of the terrorists. We ended up with the TSA because Karen needed security theatre and the government was all too happy to increase the funding and scope of DHS with the nod of the useful idiots.

I don't even think Karen got involved, it was just the Bush administration seizing the opportunity for more corruption, pork barrels, surveillance and harassment of the population at large full stop.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#556

Post by cthor »

pu_pe wrote: post #552
cthor wrote: post #539

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is not surprising. If your point is that 10% is not 5% and the odds change over time then you have unreasonable expectations. It's not an oracle. Where did I say it was? I said it's a quick and robust signal. Of course there's plenty of ways to get alpha, but those require both effort and domain expertise. Is this a standard you hold to any other single signal? Name it. What signal (a) predicted <3% over a month…

There is no substitute for effort and domain expertise, that's my point. Polymarket would like you to believe that their odds represent some sort of collective knowledge, but they don't, it's not like the world's top experts in epidemiology are trading on this issue. Worse, as I explained someone might be trying to manipulate the odds to their benefit, which for the particular case you cited would be quite cheap to d…

These are sensible criticisms and things one should be mindful of when using prediction markets as a signal (I would also add an awareness of how discount rates affect the reliability of markets that trade at low probabilities), but none of them justify the original statement being contended with, which was: "They offer zero positive utility to the world."

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#557

Post by vagab0nd »

solenoid0937 wrote: post #7

These - especially Polymarket - should be illegal globally, as they incentivize people with power to manipulate the real world in horribly destructive ways to win a bet. I would not be surprised if people are murdered at some point to reap the payout of some related bet.

Guns should be illegal because they can be used to kill people.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#558

Post by elnatro »

stackedinserter wrote: post #523
elnatro wrote: post #210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who asked you, you are irrelevant to anything.

True, just like you. But it doesn't make Spain more relevant.

So you are irrelevant then, right? So why are you commenting? I would bet that you don’t even know where Spain is on a map.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#559

Post by edge_trader_41 »

bilekas wrote: post #442

> Spain - like other European jurisdictions - considers prediction markets a form of gambling when bets are placed on uncertain outcomes. What is the defense in the US for example that these are not gambling, "bets are placed on uncertain outcomes", it's that close to, if not the definition of gambling ?

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