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US economy unexpectedly sheds 92k jobs in February

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Re: US economy unexpectedly sheds 92k jobs in February

#551
post #87
post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have some Euro friends that went to Dubai instead because the USA is “too dangerous” right now. I wish them safe passage back, but yeesh talk about irrational perspective.

Are you implying they knew that Iran would get bombed and would in retaliation bomb everyone across the Persian gulf?

I’m implying that going anywhere in the Middle East (or a good deal of the world) has far more risk than going to the USA.

Re: US economy unexpectedly sheds 92k jobs in February

#552

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is a significant majority of people in Canada who not only vocally decided to not go to US but discourage their friends from doing so too. People have judged me for driving through the states.

I hope a couple of U.S. tourists won't find any trouble driving through Alberta. Would a "We Love CANADA" bumper sticker help? (Asking for a friend.)

Your chances of running into trouble are pretty close to zero unless you're wearing a 51st State t-shirt or something.

I work with a a decent number of Americans who either moved here or are here temporarily, and I can't say there has been any tension. I think most Canadians who are staunchly anti-US are also aware that plenty of Americans aren't happy with their government. I can't say I've seen any vitriol towards the average American person.

Re: US economy unexpectedly sheds 92k jobs in February

#553

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If all of the undocumented people in the US spent this much time trying to emigrate legally Many of the "undocumented people" (what an Orwellian phrase) that have been rounded up by ICE are picked up during court hearings or immigration interviews. An easy way for agents to meet their quota without doing any actual investigative work. Say what you will about them but there's no denying those people were by definiti…

No. If you're "trying to X legally", that means you don't just do X anyway no matter what the legal system says. Next you'll claim that robbers are trying to earn a living legally".

> no matter what the legal system says

I appreciate the way you phrased that, "what the legal system says" rather than "the laws," since it's important to keep in mind a lot of what we're talking about is mercurial executive branch policy rather than statutory law. (which is why US immigration has been such a shitshow for such a long time)

On the other hand, you're apparently ignorant of what's actually happening, and it's making you write stupid things. The Trump administration's policy changes when he took office immediately made a lot of people, not my choice of words, "illegal" immigrants instead of "legal" immigrants. Maybe you support that, that's your business, but to claim those people were not "trying to emigrate legally" because the new administration changed the rules is simply dishonest.

Re: US economy unexpectedly sheds 92k jobs in February

#554

I grew up in the US and lived there for 30 years, but now I live in Europe. Every single one of my friends in their 30's finds visiting the US absolutely terrifying (even those who have previously been). I have yet to meet a single friend in today's day that has expressed any interest in visiting.

A Senior Software Engineer in Stockholm can expect to make less money than a Graduate Software Engineer in the United States, and will pay more taxes.

It's simple, as a technologist, you live in Europe if retirement isn't important for you. Because you'll have almost nothing to show for it after 30 years in tech in Europe.

Re: US economy unexpectedly sheds 92k jobs in February

#555

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The vast majority of tourism in the US (around 90%) is domestic. The total drop of inbound international tourism is about 12%. The effect is noise-level compared to larger economic forces at play. The US is just not an international tourism dependent country in any way.

Most industries take notice when they lose 12% of a market. This is Russian style propaganda to say 'ignore this it's nothing'. We have an insane amount of policy/policy discussion around coal which only employs 40,000 people. I live in a border state with Canada and this is having a huge impact for my community and those around us. I can't imaging it not impacting at least 40,000 Americans.

It's not 12% of the market. It's 12% of 10% of the market. As I said, a Canadian boycott will hurt some (close to the) border destinations, but will hardly register in most places. I'm personally not crossing that border because it doesn't feel safe to do so, and because of the threats to our independence, but I know for sure it won't have a noticeable nationwide impact even if we all stay away, and the French and the Germans and the Japanese do too. Noticing objective reality and economic facts is not "Russian propaganda".

Sure, if there's potential for using this situation for political gain it'll maybe make a political impact, but there will not be an economic one, not above the SNR of what else is going on.

Re: US economy unexpectedly sheds 92k jobs in February

#556

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Would an iphone in lockdown mode have any resistance to this?

Yes it’s resistant but then they can just deny your entry into the country.

You wish, they might just put you in a detension centre for a few weeks and take their own sweet time sending you back.

You are in legal limbo before you enter the country.

Re: US economy unexpectedly sheds 92k jobs in February

#557

At this point it seems absolutely intentional. Where I live they're trying to block multiple billions of dollars of already allocated money used to fund county hospitals. Accelerationists in office explicitly declaring intent to bring about Armageddon via official channels? Why would they care about keeping people employed when they don't seem to think there's room for everyone to even live? https://www.theguardian.c…

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Re: US economy unexpectedly sheds 92k jobs in February

#558

Makes sense. At the rate we're going, by 2028 the US is going essentially be Venezuela except AI instead of oil.

With this perspective, it would make a lot of financial sense for you to short the US markets or bet on this outcome.

After all, you're certain it is true.

Re: US economy unexpectedly sheds 92k jobs in February

#559
post #288

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There has been zero accountability for that massive budget shortfall. Revenue has increased 2x over the last decade with nothing to show for it. People are rightly skeptical of giving them even more money. And they have gone about trying to increase revenue even more in just about the most toxic ways possible, which will almost certainly erode the tax base. That state desperately needs to restructure its finances but…

“ Most of the attraction of living there historically was its extremely business-friendly environment.” How old are you? What propaganda told you this? In my generation (young millennial/genz) the attraction of living in Seattle, which pulled me and almost a dozen professional friends at this point has been: - high quality urban living in a temperate environment. Including access to great parks, waterfront, bikeabili…

For my demographic (Early genz), there are only 3 reasons to be here:

A. Their job is only available here

B. No state income tax

(C?). They REALLY love skiing/hiking

People have always regularly left for NYC/Bay Area, but I predict it will start to happen in droves over the next few years as A rapidly fades and legislation begins to threaten B.

Re: US economy unexpectedly sheds 92k jobs in February

#560

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most US tourism is domestic, the effect of a 12% drop in international tourism arrivals is a rounding error even for the US tourism industry as a whole, much less the US economy overall (tourism is 3% of total, compared to ~10% in other major tourist destinations like France). Emoting and wishful thinking is exactly right, and I say that as a Canadian who is participating in this boycott. I'm not doing it to hurt the…

Tourism is a rounding error. Euros buying US arms are a rounding error. The benefits of a relationship with XYZ country is a rounding error. Any change we want to make to improve healthcare affordability is a rounding error. Everything around discussing improving housing affordability is a rounding error. The US economy is driven in part by coal which employs 40,000 people. Rounding errors have impacts and are part o…

It's not just tourism. Economically, the US does not depend on the rest of the world nearly as much as any other developed country. Trade (exports and imports) as percentage of GDP is the lowest of all major economies, by far. This is not up for discussion it's a fact you must ground everything else in.

Having established that, you know the firm upper bound on economic (not cultural or political or podcast-topic-generating) impact that international tourism boycott will have on the US. Same for putting tariffs on US goods. If you ignore this, you'll be surprised by how little this matters in the end, economically. Conversely, if you keep yourself firmly grounded in reality you can still in fact be against these policies on different grounds - on the fact that over time their cumulative economic and non-economic effect will hurt, on the fact that a lot of the reasons for these policies are fanciful nationalist bullshit (no, manufacturing jobs aren't and won't be coming back). But don't expect us staying away from your country, or putting a tariff on your shitty cars or cucumbers or whatever, to make a difference. Why is that controversial?

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