551–560 of 800 posts
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Almost certainly not at the scale of the consumer gaming industry, however!
Google is making millions of TPUs per year. Nvidia ships more gaming GPUs, but it's not like multiple orders of magnitude off.
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This world where everybody’s very concerned with that “refined form” is annoying and exhausting. It causes discussions to become about speculative guesses about everybody else’s beliefs, not actual facts. In the end it breeds cynicism as “well yes, the belief is wrong, but everybody is stupid and believes it anyway,” becomes a stop-gap argument. I don’t know how to get away from it because ultimately coordination dep…
IMO this is a symptom of the falling rate of profit, especially in the developed world. If truly productivity enhancing investment is effectively dead (or, equivalently, there is so much paper wealth chasing a withering set of profitable opportunities for investment), then capital's only game is to chase high valuations backed by future profits, which means playing the Keynesian beauty contest for keeps. This in turn…
What if profit is dead because wealth is all concentrating in people who don't need it from a marginal consumption standpoint, which means asset prices blow up because everyone rich believes that they need to "invest" that money somewhere... but demand shrivels outside of interestingly-subsidized areas like healthcare because nobody else is making enough to even keep up with the asset price rises?
And without demand, where would innovation come from?
I know we want to talk about singularity, but isn't that just humans freaking out at this point? It will happen on a Tuesday, yeah no joke.
I'm not sure about current LLM techniques leading us there. Current LLM-style systems seem like extremely powerful interpolation/search over human knowledge, but not engines of fundamentally new ideas, and it’s unclear how that turns into superintelligence. As we get closer to a perfect reproduction of everything we know, the graph so far continues to curve upward. Image models are able to produce incredible images,…
This is right, but we can already do that a little bit for domains with verification. AlphaZero is an example of alien-level performance due to non-human training data.
Code and math is kind of in the middle. You can verify it compiles and solves the task against some criteria. So creative, alien strategies to do the thing can and will emerge from these synthetic data pipelines.
But it's not fully like Go either, because some of it is harder to verify (the world model that the code is situated in, meta-level questions like what question to even ask in the first place). That's the frontier challenge. How to create proxies where we don't have free verification, from which alien performance can emerge? If this GPTZero moment arrives, all bets are off.
No. That is quite literally exponential growth, basically by definition. If x(t) is a growing value, then x'(t) is it's growth, and x''(t) its acceleration. If x influences x'' , say by a linear relation
x''(t) = x(t)
You get exponentials out as the solutions. Not hyperbolic.
I always thought of the exponential as the pole of the function "amount of work that can be done per unit time per human being", where the pole comes about from the fact that humans cease to be the limiting factor, so an infinity pops out.
There is no infinity in practice, of course, because even though humans should be made independent of the quantity of extractable work, you'll run into other boundaries instead, like hardware or resources like energy.
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nobody can how how something that is non-deterministic works - by its pure definition
LLMs are deterministic simply because computers are at the core deterministic machines. LLMs run on computers and therefore are deterministic. The random number generator is an illusion and an LLM that utilizes it will produce the same illusion of indeterminism. Find the seed and the right generator and you can make an LLM consistently produce the same output from identical input. Despite determinism, we still do not…
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IMO this is a symptom of the falling rate of profit, especially in the developed world. If truly productivity enhancing investment is effectively dead (or, equivalently, there is so much paper wealth chasing a withering set of profitable opportunities for investment), then capital's only game is to chase high valuations backed by future profits, which means playing the Keynesian beauty contest for keeps. This in turn…
What percentage of work would you say deals w/ actual problems these days?
One of the many errors here is assuming that the prediction target lies on the curve. But there's no guarantee (to say the least) that the sorts of improvements that we've seen lead to AGI, ASI, "the singularity", a "social singularity", or any such thing.