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Hard-braking events as indicators of road segment crash risk

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Re: Hard-braking events as indicators of road segment crash risk

#551
> The core objective was to determine if a high frequency of HBEs causally links to a high rate of crashes. We employed negative binomial (NB) regression models [...].

A negative binomial regression fit on observational data cannot establish that a statistical relationship is causal.

Re: Hard-braking events as indicators of road segment crash risk

#552

I considered writing an app you would take on a car ride that would record accelerometer readings indicative of a pothole. Geotag the reading and push is anonymously to a server. Enough events should show clusters where potholes likely exist. You would think cities would love that kind of data.

This may sound a little cynical but cities often don't like having an inventory of infrastructure problems because it creates an obligation to address it or pay for tire/rim damage if there was prior written notice of a problem. I saw this happen with sidewalk condition data as another example.

Re: Hard-braking events as indicators of road segment crash risk

#553

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>I'd follow the drivers in front of me too closely Best trick for managing this is to "drive through" the car in front of you. That is, judge your following distance based not on the car in front of you, but on the car in front of THEM. And you don't have to "drive through" all the way down the road - it only takes one car/one level of abstraction for this approach to yield really great benefits, try it if you don't…

This only works if you can see two vehicles ahead. Too many SUVs and pickup trucks are too high and have terrible visibility around them.

See "Lane Positions" under Basic Driving Skills: https://www.oregon.gov/odot/dmv/pages/online_parent_guide_to...

Re: Hard-braking events as indicators of road segment crash risk

#554
post #388

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is more dangerous to be slow and have people constantly merging in front of you, rather than be slightly faster and not have all the merging. Accidents happen when vehicles are going different speeds, all things equal.

That seems like a surprising enough statement to be backed up by data. What is your source? Everything I've read points toward larger margins of safety (longer distances, slower speeds) being safer. See e.g. https://publications.lib.chalmers.se/records/fulltext/252480...

Obviously it is safer to have longer follow distances, all things equal. But you don't accomplish that if you leave a long follow distance that is cut off a few seconds later by another car trying to get ahead. You end up with a constant stream of cars cutting your follow distance to less than what it would have been if you had just stayed slightly closer to the car in front of you.

We don't live in an ideal world, and having a bunch of cars merging in front of you definitely makes you less safe than having a static situation. I try to make sure I can see through/around the car in front of me, so that I have advance notice of what's happening down the road.

Re: Hard-braking events as indicators of road segment crash risk

#555

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is more dangerous to be slow and have people constantly merging in front of you, rather than be slightly faster and not have all the merging. Accidents happen when vehicles are going different speeds, all things equal.

You might be a bad driver and not even know it.

My decades-long impeccable driving record tends to indicate otherwise. I just don't drive as if I lived in the fantasy land where leaving a long follow distance means I have a lot of room in front of me. It doesn't. It means I get cut off, and the follow distance ends up being shorter than it would have been had I just been following at the same distance as all the other cars on the road.

Re: Hard-braking events as indicators of road segment crash risk

#556

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Totally. People will just cut you off repeatedly, which puts you (and the cars behind you) in a less-safe situation than if you followed more closely.

> puts you (and the cars behind you) in a less-safe situation than if you followed more closely. Really? All you have to do is lift your right foot very gently until you have the expected spacing again, no need to sudden changes of speed and if you have traffic aware cruise control it will be done for you. My old Tesla S does it pretty well. I keep it set to three second spacing and when someone cuts in front my car…

Yeah totally works like that, until you get cut off 10 seconds later by another car.

If this doesn't happen to you, then you're probably driving like I do, and not leaving 3 seconds of follow distance like they teach in driver's ed.

Re: Hard-braking events as indicators of road segment crash risk

#557

I got one of those dongles from my insurance company that plugged into the ODB2 port and reported my driving habits. I was a bad driver. It would frequently beep at me to let me know that I had braked too hard. I was mystified. "What should I have done differently," I'd think, as I raged at the objective machine that judged me so. The next time my brother came to visit, he called mom. "Oh, and presidentender is a goo…

I knew an actuary, and remember wondering "why do sports cars cost so much to insure?" Turns out that actuaries have very good data about which kinds of cars have more accidents, and cost more to insure.

She said the only time that the data and the rates do not match is after an accident. After an accident, the rates go up, however drivers are more careful and are statistically less likely to have an accident.

Re: Hard-braking events as indicators of road segment crash risk

#558
post #390

Earlier quoted context omitted.

American road laws are insane here. The law should be simple; you must be in the outside lane at all times unless you are overtaking, and once you're done overtaking, you should merge back into the outside lane. https://www.highwaycodeuk.co.uk/overtaking.html

That seems rather inefficient on an 8– or 16–lane road.

Why? If everyone followed the rules the lanes would segment into slowest on the right, with gradually increasing speed to the left and people moving between the lanes as needed to overtake. It would be far far far better than the chaos of having to move across all the lanes of traffic all the time because there are random campers driving below the speed limit in every single lane.

Re: Hard-braking events as indicators of road segment crash risk

#559
post #367

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I understand perfectly, 20 years driving, I think people just don't like that the safe answer is to be slow. You will not fix others behaviour, so your options are be slow and generous, get out of the chaotic lanes (unless that's all of them), or join them and be aggressive, claim space, be stressed and annoyed your whole trip. There is no solution to traffic here sorry, this is more about managing your own frustrati…

There is no solution to traffic here There is, people just don’t want to hear it, and it isn’t a quick fix… Build more of our towns and cities such that driving everywhere isn’t necessary.

The subsidies for cars is crazy when you look at it from that perspective. What you need to do is invest a lot of money in areas and systems that can make it better over time. In the end you are going to spend less.

Re: Hard-braking events as indicators of road segment crash risk

#560
post #235

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not to mention if that if somebody needs to come over, the proper thing to do is signal first . Then I'm happy to politely ease off a bit and open more space for them to come over safely. It's the people who aggressively slide right over just a few feet in front of me (cutting off nearly all of my safety buffer) without so much as a signal that really drive me nuts.

It's the people who hit the gas when they see your signal, that really irk me. In Austin I stopped signaling because it was a punished behavior.

In Austin too, and probably just caused a driver to think the same thing. They were in the left lane on a frontage road which was suddenly turning left even though there was an entire lane opposite the intersection blocked off by those plastic things that seem popular to randomly place in the road these days. I saw them hesitate and figured they wanted to merge right, so i decelerated a bit to add another car length or or so, at maybe 10-15mph. They had plenty of space, flipped on their blinker, and instead of just merging started slowing down, to which I decided I wasn't going to brake more to allow them to block myself and everyone else from rolling through the intersection. They basically stopped in their lane, and beeped as I rolled by, to which someone behind them beeped at them for blocking the lane.

In Austin if you want to merge, decide if you can, blink and then merge.

Don't expect people to stomp on their brakes and stop to let you in, especially if your already traveling slower than the lane you are trying to get into and decide to further slow yourself.

And if you can't merge, deal with it, exit, or miss your exit and go around. Next time you will be more prepared or you will learn how to properly merge.

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