Earlier quoted context omitted.
>without billions in subsidies Is there a magic road wand?
No, but roads are paid for by road users (i.e. everyone).
Who pays for the war in Iraq?
The Waymo World Model
551–560 of 699 posts
Re: The Waymo World Model
#552Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Roads don't make money and no one thinks to complain about that. Between toll roads, and the toll lanes, they do?
If they paid for themselves then the DoT wouldn’t have a multibillion dollar highway budget, and that’s not even including all the state funding.
That is for Capex. Govt can always easily spend Capex, but Opex has to be covered by the users, whether its roads or trains.
Re: The Waymo World Model
#553Earlier quoted context omitted.
Humans are very good at processing the images that come into our brain. Each eye has a “blind spot” but we don’t notice. Our eyes adjust color (fluorescent lights are weird) and the amount of light coming in. When we look through a screen door or rain and just ignore it, or if you look outside a moving vehicle to the side you can ignore the foreground. If you increase the distance of stereo cameras you probably can i…
Radar has a cool property that it can sense the relative velocity of objects along the beam axis too, from Doppler frequency shifting. It’s one sense that cars have that humans don’t.
To this point, one of the coolest features Teslas _used_ to have was the ability for it to determine and integrate the speed of the car in front of you AND the speed of the car in front of THAT car, even if the second car was entirely visually occluded. They did this by bouncing the radar beam under the car in front and determining that there were multiple targets. It could even act on this: I had my car AEB when the second ahead car slammed on THEIR brakes before the car ahead even reacted. Absolutely wild. Completely gone in vision-only.
Re: The Waymo World Model
#554Earlier quoted context omitted.
(Always worth noting, human depth perception is not just based on stereoscopic vision, but also with focal distance, which is why so many people get simulator sickness from stereoscopic 3d VR)
> Always worth noting, human depth perception is not just based on stereoscopic vision, but also with focal distance Also subtle head and eye movements, which is something a lot of people like to ignore when discussing camera-based autonomy. Your eyes are always moving around which changes the perspective and gives a much better view of depth as we observe parallax effects. If you need a better view in a given direct…
Easiest example I always give of this is pulling out of the alley behind my house: there is a large bush that occludes my view left to oncoming traffic, badly. I do what every human does:
1. Crane my neck forward, see if I can see around it.
2. Inch forward a bit more, keep craning my neck.
3. Recognize, no, I'm still occluded.
4. Count on the heuristic analysis of the light filtering through the bush and determine if the change in light is likely movement associated with an oncoming car.
My Tesla's perpendicular camera is... mounted behind my head on the B-pillar... fixed... and sure as hell can't read the tea leaves, so to speak, to determine if that slight shadow change increases the likelihood that a car is about to hit us.
I honestly don't trust it to pull out of the alley. I don't know how I can. I'd basically have to be nose-into-right-lane for it to be far enough ahead to see conclusively.
Waymo can beam the LIDAR above and around the bush, owing to its height and the distance it can receive from, and its camera coverage to the perpendicular is far better. Vision only misses so many weird edge cases, and I hate that Elon just keeps saying "well, humans have only TWO cameras and THEY drive fine every day! h'yuck!"
Re: The Waymo World Model
#555Earlier quoted context omitted.
I mean, sure? I'd prefer to have a system that has a system built in that raises and lowers the level of service in accordance with the number of people using the system rather than having to have random elections that decide whether or not we're going to effectively scrape a large parts of the system.
I think there's two important things here: 1. You want to be forward looking, not backwards looking. Cutting services means less ridership means less revenue means cutting services means...etc. Bart is super useful for me during the week because headways from SF to West Oakland are often 5m. As I'm writing this (11 on a Friday) I missed a train and had to wait 20 minutes. Every seat on the car is also full, and while…
> Cutting services means less ridership means less revenue means cutting services means...etc.
That's not true. If you have stations that are revenue positive and stations that are net negative, then cutting ridership at the net-negative stations can put the system in a much better financial position. E.g. If BART didn't end at Antioch, and instead continued to Rio Vista, it's entirely likely that the Rio Vista station would just cost more to operate than is worth operating. It takes time to go back and forth, nobody will ever want to be picked up there because it's car-dependent sprawl. Maybe have one or two stops there during rush hour, but you'll likely be better financially cutting most service.
>headways from SF to West Oakland are often 5m
Nobody is suggesting cutting service between SF and Oakland. I'm sure it's a wildly profitable route. Crossing the bay is the main benefit of BART.
>The point of government is, at least in part, to serve those who can't serve themselves. I don't expect Bart to be revenue neutral for the same reason I don't expect CalFRESH to be.
I also don't expect BART to be revenue neutral. I expect it to be funded -- in very large part -- by taxes. I'm only arguing it should be sustainable. It shouldn't get to the point of literal collapse during economic downturns (again, it's already been bailed out by the state and feds, twice, in the last six years).
I really don't think people realize what I'm getting at. I'm saying the system needs to be functional and needs to function long term. Yes, I think we should subsidize low-income users. Yes, I think people who can't afford it should still be able to use it. But that has to happen in a way that doesn't drive away significant numbers of other users. There's nothing about being low-income that means anti-social. I'm talking about anti-social behavior. I'm talking about people smoking cigarettes and using drugs on BART platforms and in BART cars. I'm talking about people who are actively bothering significant numbers of people around them by their behavior -- behavior that is against BART policy, but is tolerated.
You can't sit here and tell me the current system is working when BART is perpetually collapsing. I care about BART. That's why I'm articulating the systemic problems in the system.
Re: The Waymo World Model
#556Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Roads don't make money and no one thinks to complain about that. Between toll roads, and the toll lanes, they do?
If they paid for themselves then the DoT wouldn’t have a multibillion dollar highway budget, and that’s not even including all the state funding.
The claim wasn't they pay for themselves but that they don't generate any income. If we want to look at externalities, we'd also have to figure out how much the Iraq war cost.
Re: The Waymo World Model
#557By leveraging Genie’s immense world knowledge, it can simulate exceedingly rare events—from a tornado to a casual encounter with an elephant—that are almost impossible to capture at scale in reality. The model’s architecture offers high controllability, allowing our engineers to modify simulations with simple language prompts, driving inputs, and scene layouts. Notably, the Waymo World Model generates high-fidelity,…
Looks like they need to blackouts and parades to that simulator... https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/waymo-paralyzed-parade-b...
The blackouts circumstance was because they escalate blinking/out of service traffic lights to a human confirmed decision, and they experienced a bottleneck spike in those requests for how little they were staffed. The Waymo itself was fine and was prepared to make the correct decision, it just needed a human in the loop.
In the video from the parade... there's just... people in the road. Like, a lot of small children and actual people on this tiny, super narrow bridge. I think that erring on the side of "don't think you can make it but accidentally drag a small child instead" is probably the right call, though admittedly, these cases are a bit wonky.
Re: The Waymo World Model
#558Earlier quoted context omitted.
You can't say that BART "is facing bankruptcy is precisely because it was mostly rider supported and profitable, and not government supported" when it is very obvious that BART would be in a much worse situation if it had had more government support... because all those governments are facing massive budget deficits right now. BART has already been bailed out by the state, twice . It has already failed, twice. It ver…
> You can't say that BART "is facing bankruptcy is precisely because it was mostly rider supported and profitable, and not government supported" when it is very obvious that BART would be in a much worse situation if it had had more government support... because all those governments are facing massive budget deficits right now. I don't think this follows. Government budgeting isn't zero based. A hypothetical Bart wi…
>Government budgeting isn't zero based. A hypothetical Bart with 2x the government funding in 2019 would have faced cutbacks, but likely has more money today than what we have now!
A hypothetical BART with 2x the government funding wouldn't have existed... because it didn't exist.
>Agreed if it was stagnant, but ridership is up more than 10% y/y and that was also true last year. It's on track to be revenue neutral again in a few years. Gutting services today would be exactly opposite of what you'd do for something like a startup showing clear path toward profitability.
You're mistaking what I'm saying. I want BART to flourish, but I want it to be sustainable. The choice isn't "keep it open" or "close it." How it is operated matters significantly. I'm very obviously going to vote to increase funding, my point is that it shouldn't have to come to a vote. If service is reduced to a more sustainable rate, the system could recover organically. The revenue jump that has happened at stations immediately after the gates were installed, for example, shouldn't surprise anyone. I'm a transit advocate, BART is mostly irrelevant to this discussion anyway, because we're talking about situations where Waymo is a viable alternative, which really doesn't apply to BART.
Re: The Waymo World Model
#559Earlier quoted context omitted.
Lidar fails worse than cameras in nearly all those conditions. There are plenty of videos of Tesla's vision-only approach seeing obstacles far before a human possibly could in all those conditions on real customer cars. Many are on the old hardware with far worse cameras
Interesting, got any links? Sounds completely unbelievable, eyes are far superior to the shitty cameras Tesla has on their cars.
Yea.. not holding my breath on links to superman tesla cameras performing better than eyes
Re: The Waymo World Model
#560Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Waymo had no choice but to solve the expensive problem of "Always Available and Safe" And it's still not clear whether they are using a fallback driving stack for a situation where one of non-essential (i.e. non-camera (1)) sensors is degraded. I haven't seen Waymo clearly stating capabilities of their self-driving stack in this regard. On the other hand, there are such things as washer fluid and high dynamic range…
Hence why both together make the solution waymo chose. The proof is in the pudding, Waymo's have been driving millions of miles without any intervention. Tesla requires safety drivers. I would never trust the FSD on my model 3 to be even nearly perfect all the time. Lidar also gives you the ability to see through fog and as it scans, see the depth needed to nearly always understand what object is in front of them. My…
> without any intervention
but with occasional remote guidance (Waymo doesn't seem to disclose statistics of that). In some cases remote guidance includes placing waypoints[1].
> Lidar also gives you the ability to see through fog and as it scans
Nah. Lidar isn't much better in fog than cameras. If I'm not mistaken, fog, rain, smoke, snow scatter IR light approximately the same as visible light. The lidar beam needs to travel twice the distance and its power is limited by eye-safety concerns.
> FSD on my model 3 to be even nearly perfect all the time
It doesn't need to be perfect. It needs to not hit things, cars and pedestrians too hard and too often, while mostly obeying traffic rules. Waymo has quite a few complains about their cars' behavior[2], but they manage just fine.
[1] third video in https://waymo.com/blog/2024/05/fleet-response