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Statement by Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, the Netherlands,Norway,Sweden,UK

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Re: Statement by Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, the Netherlands,Norway,Sweden,UK

#551

Post by youngtaff »

TurdF3rguson wrote: post #366
alibarber wrote: post #210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A mass selloff of US bonds will mean that the US can’t sell any more - because the market is suddenly flooded with bonds at a ‘discount’. This means that the US can’t take on any more debt (borrow money) Why would you pay the US $10 when you can get the same thing from France for $8? Or the US then has to issue bonds with massively inflated returns - i.e. pay a much higher interest rate.

On the other hand, China sold off most of theirs and nobody even noticed. I think you're exaggerating both how much EU holds and the potential effects of them selling it.

China sold off their holdings pretty slowly as they didn’t want to drive the price down

Re: Statement by Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, the Netherlands,Norway,Sweden,UK

#552

Post by Hikikomori »

Sabinus wrote: post #527
rpiguy wrote: post #515

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t wholly agree with that statement. He repeatedly asked for people to remain peaceful in the run up to J6. Even in his infamous 70 minute speech on the day of (which by the way was still going when most of the protestors were already at the capitol) where he called on people to “fight like hell” he called for peaceful demonstration. “I know that everyone here will soon be marching over to the Capitol building t…

>I don’t wholly agree with that statement. So you partially agree that Trump is an insurrectionist? >He repeatedly asked for people to remain peaceful in the run up to J6. >Even in his infamous 70 minute speech on the day of ... he called for peaceful demonstration. One "I'm sure you will be peaceful" at the beginning of a 70 minute speech is not an instruction to be peaceful, it's verbal window dressing for a speech…

Ain't no way he respond to this.

Re: Statement by Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, the Netherlands,Norway,Sweden,UK

#553

Post by 1718627440 »

ben_w wrote: post #547
1718627440 wrote: post #544

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nobody disagreed with that it eventually fades, they were all saying it is going to take decades. The consequence of 9/11 of was mostly TSAs, following the USA into wars and the erosion of privacy at the mention of terrorism. The first and the last are still ongoing and I think the current US admin is still using the latter as a narrative, the second one may come at an end currently, because the USA is trying to use…

Aye, and thanks for the link, will read the german version as per your edit. > so I doubt an atlantic conflict is going to be forgotten in the next few decades. If it gets to one, yes. Was writing late at night, so sloppily, sorry about that. Right now, I think we're not that far gone yet. Absolutely agree it becomes as you say if it becomes hot war. Not sure about which step between will be the drop that overflows t…

> Right now, I think we're not that far gone yet.

If we don't reduce conflict to mean military conflict, then I think there is definitely some diplomatic issue ongoing.

> Not sure about which step between will be the drop that overflows the bucket.

True, this is kind of the open question, because the EU both needs to be the adult in the room and deescalate, but also can't do compromises with territorial integrity otherwise it has already lost. This will of course have an impact on the "time to forget".

But I don't think if there is a uprising today in the US, Trump and the whole admin is gone next week and they improve their constitution, that the whole issue will just be forgotten. The whole pro-, neutral- or even contra USA debate has been ongoing for decades know. For example the trade deals aren't exactly concordant with EU law (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Max_Schrems#Schrems_I) and the USA has been boycotting multilateral institutions, that the EU wants to have authority. I mean it is new that they openly sabotage the ICJ, but that they have the capability to do that is not.

Re: Statement by Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, the Netherlands,Norway,Sweden,UK

#554

Post by jimbohn »

calf wrote: post #480
jimbohn wrote: post #268

Earlier quoted context omitted.

IMO, China will get back Taiwan without firing a single shot, the US is slowly de-risking itself from it and will eventually make Taiwan redundant. After seeing how the US is "helping" Ukraine, will the Taiwanese think fighting an all-out war with allies like this is worth it? China doesn't have the same genocidal intentions russia has towards Ukraine, so less reasons for people to fight it out Edt: would love some a…

The problem with Taiwanese (I am one) is ideological, they see themselves as too socially different than mainland China. Reliance on US support, or TSMC as another popular absurd copium, for security guarantee, is not realistic, and any Taiwanese can see this now. Absent other ways to secure its self determination, Taiwan is stuck playing a thin-line game between a crazy eagle and a very possessive panda.

I 100% agree with what you say, no discussion on that. My argument is that, if/when push comes to shove, Taiwanese leadership will pick the peace option given past US behaviour.

Re: Statement by Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, the Netherlands,Norway,Sweden,UK

#555

Post by tim333 »

Latest - Trump is writing to Norway, blaming his not getting the nobel prize:

>Dear Jonas: Considering your Country decided not to give me the Nobel Peace Prize for having stopped 8 Wars PLUS, I no longer feel an obligation to think purely of Peace, although it will always be predominant, but can now think about what is good and proper for the United States of America.

>“Denmark cannot protect that land from Russia or China, and why do they have a ‘right of ownership’ anyway? ...

Nuts!

Re: Statement by Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, the Netherlands,Norway,Sweden,UK

#556

Post by disgruntledphd2 »

1718627440 wrote: post #553
ben_w wrote: post #547

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Aye, and thanks for the link, will read the german version as per your edit. > so I doubt an atlantic conflict is going to be forgotten in the next few decades. If it gets to one, yes. Was writing late at night, so sloppily, sorry about that. Right now, I think we're not that far gone yet. Absolutely agree it becomes as you say if it becomes hot war. Not sure about which step between will be the drop that overflows t…

> Right now, I think we're not that far gone yet. If we don't reduce conflict to mean military conflict, then I think there is definitely some diplomatic issue ongoing. > Not sure about which step between will be the drop that overflows the bucket. True, this is kind of the open question, because the EU both needs to be the adult in the room and deescalate, but also can't do compromises with territorial integrity oth…

Yeah, one thing the EU could do that wouldn't hurt them/us (much) would be to stop bringing up fake replacements for the data sharing agreements that get shot down.

The damage would mostly hit the top performers of the US stock market (amongst others) while not damaging the EU as much.

It'll probably be tariffs first though, followed by the ACI if things get really bad.

Re: Statement by Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, the Netherlands,Norway,Sweden,UK

#557

Post by hermanzegerman »

adventured wrote: post #281
bojan wrote: post #212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That would be a horrible deal for the Greenlanders, and they know it - there were polls recently and Vance was pretty much told that when he visited there. The US is allowed for decades to have a military presence on Greenland, but the US Army has been diminishing it's presence as the time went by.

Up it to $5 million per Greenlander then. The US can afford to pull the trigger on a $250-$280 billion acquisition. The EU can't afford to counter it. To put that sum into perspective for the US economy: that's merely 2.x years of operating income for Google. There's no scenario where the people of Greenland reject that $250b offer in a free vote.

They still wouldn't want to live in the Nazi Shithole then. This approach might work under another administration

Re: Statement by Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, the Netherlands,Norway,Sweden,UK

#558

Post by vidarh »

ben_w wrote: post #546
vidarh wrote: post #484

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Indeed, but it might be many decades - once this lesson is first learned, it will take a long time to unlearn because it tends to become self-reinforcing. To give an illustration of how long institutional memory over things like this can be: As of when I went to primary school in Norway in the 1980's, we were still taught at length about the British blockade of Norway during the Napoleonic wars due to Denmark-Norway'…

Interesting; as a British person myself, we don't get taught any of that about Norway or Denmark, not even knowing that they were once joint together in a union.

I'm not surprised. From a British POV it was a relatively minor part of a much larger conflict that Britain was done with when Napoleon defeated, and Denmark-Norway was for most practical purposes treated as "just" Denmark, since Denmark was the more powerful part of the union by far.

From the Danish and Norwegian side, Britain annihilated or captured most of the Danish-Norwegian fleet because Britain expected Denmark-Norway to enter the war on Napoleons side (as a consequence, Denmark-Norway of course entered, but severely weakened), and Norway was blockaded and faced famine from 1808-1814.

After the war ended, the Norwegian mainland was handed over to Sweden (Iceland and Greenland were also Norwegian at that point, but stayed with Denmark), but Norway took advantage of the process and passed a constitution and briefly went to war against Sweden to force a better settlement, resulting in a relatively loose union. So this whole affair had a very significant effect on the formation of the Norwegian state.

Re: Statement by Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, the Netherlands,Norway,Sweden,UK

#559

Post by bflesch »

yetihehe wrote: post #539
okanat wrote: post #514

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are not going to change somebody's opinion if they submit to Twitter discourse. Not even getting screwed personally would change their opinion. Hard right wingers at any time in history learn in only one way.

Hard right wingers are a small minority. There also exist people that can change their opinion. If you don't engage with hard right wingers, a lot of people won't see ant counter-arguments and will be convinced that hard-right way is the majority view, is the right way, and will flock to that way of thinking. Engaging with right wingers on public forum is necessary, so that their voice is not the only one heard.

We're all underestimating the sheer number of people in russia who have a "career" in a while-collar job in some propaganda unit. It's a good way to work at the army but not having to actually fight at the front.

They pose as citizens of European, African, Asian or American countries online and try to steer discussion to subvert the local society. The Twitter location reveal showcases that it has an immense scale.

There are many examples such as Scottish independence movement going offline when iran goes offline.

On websites like HN and reddit you cannot even see where someone is originating from. But you can ALWAYS detect them by the cognitive biases they're using to drive their propaganda: false equivalency biase, false choice dilemmas, and so on.

Re: Statement by Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, the Netherlands,Norway,Sweden,UK

#560

Post by disgruntledphd2 »

carlosjobim wrote: post #339
fritzorino wrote: post #255

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are reliant on the kindness of strangers to fund your government spending.

That's true for all governments who issue treasuries. For the US it's the kindness of the Japanese, the Chinese and the British. But mostly their own kindness.

Note that lots of the Treasury holdings are mostly hedge fund related, so it's not as clear who holds the longer-term paper (hopefully someone who knows more than me will jump in at this point and provide data).
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