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The future of software development is software developers

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Re: The future of software development is software developers

#551

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> was the apparent benefit so incredibly variable? Yes, lots of people were very vocally against horseless-carriages, as they were called at the time. Safety and public nuisance concerns were widespread, the cars were very noisy, fast, smoky and unreliable. Old newspapers are filled with opinions about this, from people being afraid of horseless-carriages spooking other's horses and so on. The UK restricted the adopt…

yeah I agree about the negative externalities but I'm curious about the perceived benefits. did anybody argue that cars were actually slower than horse and carriage? (were they at first?)

The cars were obviously faster than the typical horse transportation and I don't think anyone tried to argue against that, but laws typically restricted cars so they couldn't go faster than horses, at least in highly populated areas like cities. As others mentioned too, the benefit of not needing roads to go places were highlighted as a drawback of cars too. People argued that while cars might go faster, the result would be that the world would be worse off in total.

Re: The future of software development is software developers

#552
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Have you used an LLM specifically trained for tool calling, in Claude Code, Cursor or Aider? They’re capable of looking up documentation, correcting their errors by compiling and running tests, and when coupled with a linter, hallucinations are a non issue. I don’t really think it’s possible to dismiss a model that’s been trained with reinforcement learning for both reasoning and tool usage as only doing pattern matc…

Ask a model to "Write a chess engine where pawns move backward and kings can jump like nights" It will keep slipping back into real chess rules. It learned chess, it did not understand the concept of "rules" Or Ask it to reverse a made up word like "Reverse the string 'glorbix'" It will get it wrong on the first try. You would not fail. Or even better ask it to... "Use the dxastgraphx library to build a DAG scheduler…

Tried ChatGPT (free version). I answered correctly to the first question.

Answer to second question:

"I can do that, but there’s a catch: dxastgraphx is not a known or standard Python (or JS) library as of now. I don’t have any public API or documentation for it to target directly.

To avoid guessing wrong, here are the two sensible options:"

Re: The future of software development is software developers

#553

Earlier quoted context omitted.

SOTA models cost hundreds of millions to train. I doubt anyone is crowdsourcing that. And that’s assuming you already have a lot of the infrastructure in place.

I think faang and the like would probably crowdsource it given that they would—according to the hypothesis presented—would only have to do it every few years, and ostensibly are realizing improved developer productivity from them.

I don’t think the incentive to open source is there for $200 million LLM models the same way it is for frameworks like React.

And for closed source LLMs, I’ve yet to see any verifiable metrics that indicate that “productivity” increases are having any external impact—looking at new products released, new games on Steam, new startups founded etc…

Certainly not enough to justify bearing the full cost of training and infrastructure.

Re: The future of software development is software developers

#554
post #314

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Have you had your head in the sand for the past two years? At the recent AWS conference, they were showcasing Kiro extensively with real life products that have been built with it. And the Amazon developers all allege that they've all been using Kiro and other AI tools and agents heavily for the past year+ now to build AWS's own services. Google and Microsoft have also reported similar internal efforts. The platforms…

Amazon, Google and Microsoft are balls deep invested in AI, a rational person should draw 0 conclusions in them showcasing how productive they are with it. I'd say it's more about the fear of their $50billion+ investments not paying off is creeping up on them.

It’s ok to have this prior but these are not speculative tools and capabilities, they exist today. If you remain unimpressed by them that’s fine, but to deny real people (not bots!) and real companies (we measure lots of stuff, I’ve seen the data at a large MAANG and have used their internal and external tools) get serious benefits _today_ and we still have about 4 more orders of magnitude to scale _existing_ paradigms, the writing on the wall is so obvious. It’s fine and reasonable to be skeptical and there are so many serious serious societal risks and issues to worry about and champion but to me if your position is akin to “this is all hype” it makes absolutely no sense to me

Re: The future of software development is software developers

#555

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nearly nobody cares about the load on “national and local government resources, local utility capacity, and roadway infrastructure” for any other day-to-day activity. Why should they care about the same for AI which for most people is “out there online” somewhere? Related my, crypto bros worried about electricity usage only so far as its expense went and whether they could move closer to hydro dams.

The parent comment's point is that we _should_ care because cheap frontier-model access (that many of us have quickly become hopelessly dependent on) might be temporary.

If expert devs have junior devs to assign code to, that you review and integrate, do they become “hopelessly dependent” on junior devs?

My experience of expert devs is those who are happy to have extra leverage are not slowed much by having to do it themselves.

In no cases have I seen experts become “dependent” on the junior devs.

Re: The future of software development is software developers

#556

Earlier quoted context omitted.

More than any other effect they have LLMs breed something called "learned helplessness". You just listed a few things it may stay better than you at, and a few things that it is not better than you at and never will be . Planning long running projects and deciding are things only you can do well!! Humans manage costs. We look out for our future. We worry. We have excitement, and pride. It wants you to think none of t…

You are still in denial of what an LLM actually is capable of in the near-mid term. In the current architecture there are mathmatical limitations on what it can do with information. However, tool use and external orchestration allow it to work around many (maybe all) those limitations. The current models have brittle parts and some bad tendencies.. but they will continue to eat up the executive thought ladder. I thin…

I don't think the limitations on what it can do are mathematical at all. It has no, faith, no conviction, no sense of self. No philosophy, no ability to learn. How could it undertake a major effort?

Re: The future of software development is software developers

#557
post #236

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> The promise of LLMs is not that they solve the single most difficult tasks for you instantly, but that they do the easy stuff well enough that they replace offshore teams. But that's exactly the *promise* of LLMs by the hypepeople behind it.

I bet you trusted the Blockchain bros and were first in line to buy NFTs too. No? Why would you trust the hype when you can verify this stuff yourself pretty easily.

Obviously I am calling that promise bullshit...

Re: The future of software development is software developers

#558
post #348

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>But that's exactly the promise of LLMs by the hypepeople behind it. I do not know and do not care what the "hypepeople" say. I can tell you that, by pure logic alone, LLMs will be superior at simple and routine tasks sooner, which means they will compete with outsourced labor first. LLMs need to be measured against their competition and their competition right now is outsourced labor. If an LLM can outperform an off…

Outsourced devs wielding smart models are even cheaper than onshore and the models lift all boats wrt capability. The bottleneck will soon be ideas for the things to build.

> The bottleneck will soon be ideas for the things to build

No, it won't. The utility of LLMs is already growing asymptotically now...

Re: The future of software development is software developers

#559

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Proof of what? Should you also have to prove you are not a bot sponsored by short-sellers? It’s all so so silly, anti-AI crowds on HN rehash so many of the same tired arguments it’s ridiculous: - bad for environment: how? Why? - takes all creative output and doesn’t credit: common crawl has been around for decades and models have been training for decades, the difference is that now they’re good. Regurgitating traini…

>Should you also have to prove you are not a bot sponsored by short-sellers? On a 35 day-old account, yes. Anything "post-AI" is suspect now. The rest of your comment reads like manufactured AI slop, replying to things I never even wrote in my one sentence comment. And no surprise coming from an account created 1 day ago .

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Re: The future of software development is software developers

#560
I did a bit of scripting trying to automate the TDD cycle given a task description. The problem is, that the LLM tends to jump forward and submit a full implementation instead of a minimal change. I guess the problem is, that LLMs are trained on complete solutions instead of minimal steps.
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