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Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden

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Re: Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden

#551

Post by xg15 »

oxag3n wrote: post #510
maciejzj wrote: post #353

I may have developed some kind of paranoia reading HN recently, but the AI atmosphere is absolutely nuts to me. Have you ever thought that you would see a chart showing how population of horses was decimated by the mass introduction of efficient engines accompanied by an implication that there is a parallel to human population? And the article is not written in any kind of cautionary humanitarian approach, but rather…

> What the hell It was always like this. Look at the history, and sometimes quite recent - people were always treated like a tool - for getting rich, for getting in power, to conquer other countries, to serve them.

It's interesting though how the narrative is all bright-eyed idealism, make the world a better place, progress, etc until at some point the masks go off and suddenly it's "always has been, move along, nothing to see here"...

Re: Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden

#552

Post by azemetre »

raincole wrote: post #14
barbazoo wrote: post #2

Engine efficiency, chess rating, AI cap ex. One example is not like the other. Is there steady progress in AI? To me it feels like it’s little progress followed by the occasional breakthrough but I might be totally off here.

What example do you need? In every single benchmark AI is getting better and better. Before someone says "but benchmark doesn't reflect real world..." please name what metric you think is meaningful if not benchmark. Token consumption? OpenAI/Anthropic revenue?

What metrics, that aren't controlled by industry, show AI getting better? Generally curious because those "ranking sites" to me seem to be infested with venture capital, so hardly fair or unbiased. The only reports I hear from academia are those being overly negative on AI.

Re: Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden

#553

Post by listenallyall »

gwd wrote: post #304
listenallyall wrote: post #293

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But wouldnt these spreadsheets be tracking something like total revenue? If a doctor is spending time on admin tasks instead of revenue-generating procedures, obviously the hospital has accountants and analysts who will notice this, yes? I'll contrast your experience with a well-run (from a profitability standpoint) dentist's office, they have tons of assistants and hygienists and the dentist just goes from room-to-r…

First of all, it's not unlikely that the dentist is the owner. And in any case, when you have a small system of less than 150 people, it's easy enough for a handful of people to see what's actually going on. Once you get to something in the thousands or tens of thousands, you just have spreadsheets; and anything that doesn't show up in that spreadsheet might as well not exist. Furthermore, you have competing business…

Problem with this analogy is that software development != revenue. The developers and IT are a cost center. So yea in a huge org one of the goals is to reduce costs (admin) spent on supporting a cost center.

Doctors generate revenue directly and it can all be traced, so even an extra 20 minutes out of their day doing admin stuff instead of one more patient or procedure is easily noticeable, and affects revenue directly.

Re: Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden

#554

Post by LogicFailsMe »

heavyset_go wrote: post #545
LogicFailsMe wrote: post #483

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think we have a bunch of people in the United States who see what we elected for leadership and the choices he made to advise him, and they have given up all hope. That despondent attitude is infusing their opinions on everything. But chin up, he's really old, and he doesn't seem very healthy or he'd be out there leading the charge throwing those rallies every weekend of which he used to be so fond. And low informa…

> But chin up, he's really old, and he doesn't seem very healthy or he'd be out there leading the charge throwing those rallies every weekend of which he used to be so fond. At this point in time, his whimsy is the only thing holding back younger, more extreme acolytes from doing what they want. Once he's gone, lol.

A bunch of charisma 3 acolytes. Only a select few get to be Zaphod Beeblebrox, swirlies for everyone else who tries...

Re: Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden

#555

Post by listenallyall »

Eisenstein wrote: post #313
listenallyall wrote: post #293

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But wouldnt these spreadsheets be tracking something like total revenue? If a doctor is spending time on admin tasks instead of revenue-generating procedures, obviously the hospital has accountants and analysts who will notice this, yes? I'll contrast your experience with a well-run (from a profitability standpoint) dentist's office, they have tons of assistants and hygienists and the dentist just goes from room-to-r…

> If a doctor is spending time on admin tasks instead of revenue-generating procedures, obviously the hospital has accountants and analysts who will notice this, yes? I am going to assume that the Doctors are just working longer hours and/or aren't as attentive as they could be and so care quality declines but revenue doesn't. Overworking existing staff in order to make up for less staff is a tried and true play. > I…

Doesn't really matter the type of doctor, spending all their time on revenue-generating activities would seem to be better than only 75% generating revenue and 25% on "administrative and bureaucratic tasks" that don't generate revenue and which could be accomplished by a much lower-paid employee ("secretaries and assistants").

Perhaps you're correct that the doctors are simply working much longer hours but that's one group of employees among a hospital's staff who do generally have a lot of power and aren't too easy to make extraordinary demands of.

Re: Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden

#556

Post by LPisGood »

HDThoreaun wrote: post #518
LPisGood wrote: post #235

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That feels optimistic. This kind of naive free market ideology seems to rarely manifest in lower prices.

Every competitive industry has tiny margins. High margin business exists because of lack of competition.

I think there are plenty of counter examples.

Re: Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden

#557

Post by LPisGood »

bloppe wrote: post #511
LPisGood wrote: post #235

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That feels optimistic. This kind of naive free market ideology seems to rarely manifest in lower prices.

Then maybe you've never worked in a competitive industry. I have. Margins were very small.

I’ve certainly spent time in the marketplace buying or not buying products.

Re: Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden

#558

Post by LarsDu88 »

maciejzj wrote: post #353

I may have developed some kind of paranoia reading HN recently, but the AI atmosphere is absolutely nuts to me. Have you ever thought that you would see a chart showing how population of horses was decimated by the mass introduction of efficient engines accompanied by an implication that there is a parallel to human population? And the article is not written in any kind of cautionary humanitarian approach, but rather…

I'd like to note here that the lifespan of a horse is 25-30 years. They were phased out not with mass horse genocide, but likely in the same way we phase out Toyota Corollas that have gotten too old. Owners simply didn't buy a new horse when the old one wore out, but bought an automobile instead.

Economically it is no different from the demand for Mitsubishi's decreasing except the vehicle in this case eats grass, poops, and feels pain.

If you want to analogize with humans, a gradual reduction in breeding (which is happening anyways with or without AI) is probably a stronger analogy than a Skynet extinction scenario.

Truth is this is no different than the societal trends that were introduced with industrialization, simply accelerated on a massive scale.

The threshold for getting wealth through education is bumping up against our natural human breeding timeline, delaying childbirth past natural optimal human fertility ages in the developed world. The amount of education needed to achieve certain types of wealth will move into the decades causing even more strain on fertility metrics. Some people will decide to have more kids and live off purely off whatever limited wellfare the oligarchs in charge decide is acceptable. Others will delay having children far past natural human fertility timespans or forgo having children at all.

Re: Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden

#559

Post by computerthings »

palmotea wrote: post #520
cryptonector wrote: post #472

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What would they get from the plebs? Suppose we went through The Phools and so the plebs were exterminated, then what? Perhaps we'd finally have Star Trek economics, but only for them, the "owners". Better be an "owner", then.

> What would they get from the plebs? I think the right question is: what would they want from the plebs? And the answer will be nothing. Right now they want the plebs' labor, which is why things work the way they do. > The Phools and so the plebs were exterminated, then what? Is that a reference to this? https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691168319/ph... > Perhaps we'd finally have Star Trek economics,…

[dead]

Re: Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden

#560

Post by LarsDu88 »

LarsDu88 wrote: post #558
maciejzj wrote: post #353

I may have developed some kind of paranoia reading HN recently, but the AI atmosphere is absolutely nuts to me. Have you ever thought that you would see a chart showing how population of horses was decimated by the mass introduction of efficient engines accompanied by an implication that there is a parallel to human population? And the article is not written in any kind of cautionary humanitarian approach, but rather…

I'd like to note here that the lifespan of a horse is 25-30 years. They were phased out not with mass horse genocide, but likely in the same way we phase out Toyota Corollas that have gotten too old. Owners simply didn't buy a new horse when the old one wore out, but bought an automobile instead. Economically it is no different from the demand for Mitsubishi's decreasing except the vehicle in this case eats grass, po…

If we look at it this way, a reduction in human population would be contingent on whether you think human beings exist and are bred for the purposes of labor.

I believe most people would agree with me that the answer is NO.

The analogy to horses here then is not individuals, but specific types of jobs.

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