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Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'

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Re: Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'

#551

Post by jaennaet »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #157
convolvatron wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

it might bring in the schedules, but since it probably wouldn't cause there to be an actual hole, its really more about long term fab build plans than anything else

> since it probably wouldn't cause there to be an actual hole, its really more about long term fab build plans than anything else Equities are forward looking. TSMC's valuation doesn't make sense if it doesn't have a backlog to grow into.

Exactly. A drop in the expected growth would absolutely cause a drop in valuation as investors reassess their holdings

Re: Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'

#552

Post by [deleted] »

an0malous wrote: post #511
captainkrtek wrote: post #419

It feels as if every CEO used ChatGPT once and said “wow this is incredible, pivot hard to make our product use AI”, and that’s about all the thought has matured to.

Maybe even moreso VCs who advised their startups to become AI native products even if customers weren’t asking for or using those features.

[deleted]

Re: Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'

#553

Post by LtWorf »

bananaflag wrote: post #303
cedws wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't even know what the selling point of AI is for regular people. In the 60s it was possible for a man to work an ordinary job, buy a house, settle down with a wife and support two or three children. That's completely out of the realm of reality for many young people now and the plummeting birth rates show it. The middle class have financially benefited very little from the past 20+ years of productivity gains. S…

> I don't even know what the selling point of AI is for regular people. AI healthcare, for example. Have an entity that can diagnose you in a week at most, instead of being sent from specialist to specialist for months, each one being utterly uninterested in your problem.

The AI only works kinda decently for ONE specific field, where you still need to take the xray anyway and need the machine and the operator to do it.

Re: Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'

#554

Post by jennyholzer »

captainkrtek wrote: post #418

It feels like AI investment and product focus is now a religion or cult. You have to be so fully invested, blind from any data, and throwing billions of dollars at it, otherwise you’re not “in”. Meanwhile, no one in my sphere of tech and non tech people is wanting “more AI” and sees the pros/cons of chatgpt, using it as kinda fancy google search.. Where’s the “killer app” that’ll generate literally trillions in reven…

the killer app is "kinda fancy google search"

now go produce 300% as much as you did last year, slave

Re: Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'

#555

Post by lizknope »

rockemsockem wrote: post #345

There's a weird gleefulness about AI being a bubble that'll pop any day now both in this thread and in the world at large. It's kinda weird and I find most of the predictions about the result of such a bubble popping to sound highly exaggerated.

I work for a company making AI related products. I've asked multiple Executive VP's if we are in an AI bubble. They all dance around the question.

I started working in 1997 and saw the dot com bubble and collapse. If you had asked me in 1999 I thought it would go on forever. I used to get 5 recruiter calls a day. In 2001 I got zero recruiter calls the entire year and it took me 10 months to find a new job.

I saw people at Cisco that had exercised stock options and held on to it at $80 and then it dropped to $20 and they had huge AMT tax bills that they couldn't pay even if they sold everything they had including their house.

My warnings of the AI bubble popping are not just an "I told you so" but also a warning to people to diversify out of their company stock and diversify in general.

Re: Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'

#556

Post by jennyholzer »

TrackerFF wrote: post #20
aurareturn wrote: post #4

Is it really a bubble about to burst when literally everyone is talking about AI being in a bubble and maybe bursting soon? To me, we're clearly not peak AI exuberance. AI agents are just getting started and getting so freaking good. Just the other day, I used Vercel's v0 to build a small business website for a relative in 10 minutes. It looked fantastic and very mobile friendly. I fed the website to ChatGPT5.1 and a…

It's not that the AI models or products don't work. It's how much money is being poured into it, how much of the money that is just changing hands between the big players, the revenue, and the valuations.

to be fair, they don't work

Re: Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'

#557

Post by jennyholzer »

boxedemp wrote: post #484
checker659 wrote: post #400

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are the companies making a profit on every prompt I give it (factoring in the cost of upgrading GPUs every year or two)?

They've got us addicted. They're going to squeeze us eventually. I know my company don't stop using agent driven development. It's increased our velocity too much.

i got off that shit two years ago. you're a victim, i am not.

Re: Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'

#558

Post by LtWorf »

Auracle wrote: post #433
johnnyanmac wrote: post #305

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>We'd have to assume AI creates zero new jobs or industries Zero American jobs, sure. It's clear that these american industries don't want to invest in America. >They won't. They never have. not permanent, but trends don't look good. It doesnt' remain permanent because mass unemployment becomes a huge political issue at some point. As is it now among Gen Z who's completely pivoted in the course of a year.

Increased production has always just lead to more stuff being made, not more people unemployed. When even our grandparents were kids a new shirt was something you’d take care of, as you don’t get a new one very often. Now we head on to Target and throw 5 into our cart on a whim. Were there less weavers with machines now doing the job (or whatever?). Sure. But it balances out. It’s just bumpy. The big change here is t…

But nobody can afford stuff.

Re: Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'

#559

Post by lizknope »

jmount wrote: post #68

Tons of companies survived the dot com bubble pop. Corrections are when the market does some sorting.

The company may survive but there are still thousands of layoffs. I just wrote in another comment that in 1999 I was getting 5 recruiter calls a week. In all of 2001 I got zero.

Re: Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'

#560

Post by engeljohnb »

roenxi wrote: post #491
uniq7 wrote: post #314

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In which of those countries is it possible for a man to work an ordinary job, buy a house, settle down with a wife and support two or three children?

If they're happy to do it to 1970s standards, probably most of them. The standard of what an ordinary life looks like has gone up a lot. Plus when only the man worked looking after a home was a full time job - much less in the way of microwaves and washing machines and whatnot. It is worth remembering that in the early 1900s there were a lot of houses that didn't even have electricity. The trends [0] are clear. As so…

This ridiculous lie needs to end.

I can get a microwave for ~$60.

I can get a decent used cell phone for ~$100.

Appliances are a little more expensive, but I can get a washing machine for ~$300, less if I go to facebook marketplace.

But in my area, a victorian house that's litterally crumbling with no central cooling and not up-to-code wiring where you can't run a hair dryer and coffee machine at the same time?

$180,000

Cost of rent at a similar quality house half the size?

$1600/month

Modern comforts are not the reason people can't afford to live.

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