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TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

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Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#551

Post by Cthulhu_ »

Detrytus wrote: post #129
world2vec wrote: post #52

Might be a silly question but considering the tensions between US and EU right now... What would happen to all these deals if ASML was was not allowed to sell their machines to US companies? I don't know enough to even speculate on these wild scenarios

US has many military bases across EU, after such hostile act they might as well take control over the Netherlands

Sure, but they'd turn the world against them. Or at least all of Europe. It'd be trivial to disable ASML's production process, too - as others have commented, they rely on tons of suppliers as well as a lot of local employees and knowledge.

I do love armchair hypotheticals like that, but a few seconds of thinking will show that a hostile takeover of the country will not mean the US retains access to ASML's machines.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#553

Post by spookie »

krainboltgreene wrote: post #526
jonkoops wrote: post #465

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A 'small' island with one of the most successful and thriving democracies in the East, that has world class industry. China cannot have a successful democracy on their doorstep, it undermines their perception of absolute Chinese superiority.

China is a democracy. It's literally what you're describing Taiwan as. That said I do agree that it does cause China's superiority to be called into question. Imagine if the Confederate states of America managed to take hold of Cuba and hold out. EDIT: I'm literally factually correct. In 5 of the 6 indexes China has a Democracy score where as Brunei, an absolute monarchy, doesn't!

If you consider a one party state authoritarian regime as powering the common people's will, then I guess it is.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#554

Post by rjmill »

tnt128 wrote: post #314

The idea that the US protects Taiwan from a possible Chinese invasion over chips is one of those things that sounds believable but really isn't going to happen. From China’s perspective, the cost of war is much higher than the cost of developing these chips themselves. In the worst-case scenario, they would be 2-3 years behind the cutting edge, which is not mission-critical. Most electronics (civilian or military) do…

I wonder if Bacardi might be a better analogue for what TSMC gets from this deal.

Bacardi started a distillery in Puerto Rico (iirc, to sell in the US without tariffs) well before the Cuban Revolution. When the Cuban government seized Bacardi's assets, they were able to move everything to their other sites in Puerto Rico and Mexico.

As you point out, I highly doubt this deal moves the needle on whether or not US provides military aid to Taiwan. But it does help give them more options if the situation in Taiwan becomes untenable.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#555

Post by ever1337 »

tnt128 wrote: post #314

The idea that the US protects Taiwan from a possible Chinese invasion over chips is one of those things that sounds believable but really isn't going to happen. From China’s perspective, the cost of war is much higher than the cost of developing these chips themselves. In the worst-case scenario, they would be 2-3 years behind the cutting edge, which is not mission-critical. Most electronics (civilian or military) do…

> > If you believe the US will or should only act in its own interest, then its interest is to remain the only superpower.

This is the error of non-Marxist 'realism'. The US is not a monolith with a single general interest. It is a class society with its own internal contradictions that play out, for one, internationally. There are legitimately diverging interests when it comes to the role of the United States abroad, and importantly, growing consciousness among classes which in some ways or others, view the institutions of the US' superpower-status as part and parcel of their own oppression domestically.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#556

Post by xyzzy123 »

krainboltgreene wrote: post #536
xyzzy123 wrote: post #531

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> China is a democracy You get to vote sometimes but there's only one party...

Democracy isn't when you have multiple parties. It's when you elect people to govern. Many americans think that America has a uniparty, despite all appearances.

I feel like you have it the wrong way around. There are a lot of political setups where you "elect someone" that are absolutely not democracies. I can be an authoritarian supreme leader who allows citizens to elect who will run their province (from my choice of candidates of course!) and I really don't think it's reasonable to claim that this situation is a "democracy".

It's autocracy with democratic characteristics.

I agree your criticisms of democracy in the US and Taiwan have some validity but in terms of deciding whether China might be a democracy or not they seem like whataboutism.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#557

Post by jgab »

runako wrote: post #211
aurareturn wrote: post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Less likely but could. Chip fab is much more valuable than putting iPhones together.

Not being snarky here, but what is the benefit of a chip fab in Arizona, thousands of miles from the assembly lines where the chips will be used? I get why it would be important for niche (e.g. defense) applications, but is TSMC scale really needed?

The equipment in chip fabs is highly sensitive to weather and natural disasters. So sites like Arizona, Austin, Oregon are chosen due to low prevalence of earthquakes no hurricanes etc.

The fabs anyways don’t ship chips to the devices they go into, they do to a separate site where they get tested, packaged and then are sent off.

The reason to onshore this is not about scale but process capability and adding security to supply chain in case Taiwan gets in a conflict. It’s not about scale but ability to produce high yielding chips at shrinking technology size, is vastly becoming a physics problem at smaller nodes.

Reality is that Samsung and Intel could run a similar fab but their yields, efficiency and process development is lagging behind TSMC. So easier to onshore TSMC process here that help Intel learn how to speedrun transition to foundry model (producing others chip designs)

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#558

Post by re-thc »

elif wrote: post #471
huijzer wrote: post #406

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> From China’s perspective, the cost of war is much higher than the cost of developing these chips themselves. For China it’s not about the chips. It’s about getting rid of the humiliation that is having a small island, that was originally part of China, not be a part of China.

What you mean like hong Kong? That humiliation pales in comparison to the damage done domestically as taiwan's defenses would necessitate a gross loss of life. Then consider the diplomatic posture of every major economy on the China sea.

> That humiliation pales in comparison to the damage done domestically as taiwan's defenses would necessitate a gross loss of life.

There was life lost in Hong Kong. Potentially not the same amount, but yes lives were lost (not just what was mentioned in the media or from protests).

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#559

Post by par »

tnt128 wrote: post #314

The idea that the US protects Taiwan from a possible Chinese invasion over chips is one of those things that sounds believable but really isn't going to happen. From China’s perspective, the cost of war is much higher than the cost of developing these chips themselves. In the worst-case scenario, they would be 2-3 years behind the cutting edge, which is not mission-critical. Most electronics (civilian or military) do…

or a fourth perspective, you're undermining the importance of TSMC production/output, and the US would indeed go to war over it.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#560

Post by LunaSea »

nickpsecurity wrote: post #126
_t9ow wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Taiwan is still not allowed to buy F35 fighters. And the weapons they are allowed to buy from the US are delivered late and of poor quality: Taiwan Is Getting Its U.S. Weaponry—but Years Behind Schedule: https://www.wsj.com/world/asia/taiwan-is-getting-its-u-s-wea... U.S. delivered "wet and moldy body armor" to Taiwan, Pentagon watchdog says: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/u-s-wet-moldy-body-armor-to-tai... The US has…

"Taiwan is the United States’ 7th-largest merchandise trading partner ($158.6 billion in total goods trade), 10th-largest export market ($42.3 billion), and 8th-largest source of imports ($116.3 billion), according to 2024 U.S. data (and when the European Union is considered as one trading partner). " https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF10256 Sounds like we've been a great partner with Taiwan. Also, want…

Maybe Taiwan should consider chips to be a strategic advantage and refuse to sell them to the US for a while.
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