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The top 10% owns 87% of the stocks

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Re: The top 10% owns 87% of the stocks

#551

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If you (as a country) insist on competition and absence of mega corps in your country while a country next to you subsidizes mega corps that outcompete your smaller companies - you will lose. The assumption here is that megacorps are a competitive advantage. Let's look at a counterexample. Suppose solar manufacturing is a growth industry. China wants to dominate it, so they subsidize it. Is there now a single megac…

I think it'd be helpful to stick with just the military example. (Your comments re Oracle are well taken and I agree) I don't think you've tackled the problem of if we're playing competition and they build nukes, we need to build nukes. It's a zero sum game and the result is nuclear holocaust. Do you disagree with the premise and if not, what is your proposed solution? Regarding there must be a king - I think it'd be…

I don't think nukes are a valid analogy. With literal nukes, if they build them and you don't, you get conquered because you have to surrender or be vaporized. So the US needs to have literal nukes and then so do Russia and China and members of the EU, at which point nobody uses them because of MAD. Megacorps don't work like that.

The premise that they did would be something like, Android. Google has 90% market share in search and makes their money from cloud services and ads. They give away Android for free and then tie it to their services through the network effect of the Play Store and remote attestation. Competition for mobile operating systems is thereby destroyed because to compete with Android you'd have to compete with something free while overcoming a strong network effect, and if you somehow started to then Google has billions of dollars to pour into Android to make sure you can't succeed. Therefore their only competition is from Apple, another megacorp. How is your local market for competing operating systems supposed to thrive in this environment? You're screwed.

But you're not vaporized, you're still allowed to have your own laws. So suppose you're the EU, or you're the US and Google is hypothetically a foreign company, but you want to respond in a way other than just getting your own megacorp.

You would have stronger antitrust laws. Contracts to enforce the business models of these companies would be totally unenforceable in your jurisdiction. App store can't be tied to the device or the use of any other services, remote attestation is forbidden because it prevents the user's bank app from working on a competing device, etc. Absolutely no respect in the law for any attempt to enforce vertical integration. Copyright laws that require source code to be distributed to the customer with any software, to aid in reverse engineering and adversarial interoperability. Violations have penalties with teeth, like invalidating the company's patents and copyrights.

Then the small competitors in your jurisdiction have a chance. Someone can make an Android fork that can use any app in the Play Store and fund development by auctioning off the defaults for search engine or cloud services. Android forks which are actually developed as open source instead of just having the code thrown over the wall start to become popular there, and support multiple app stores which also start to become popular. Once they build enough of a network effect, people outside your jurisdiction start to use them. Meanwhile the people in the other jurisdiction(s) still beleaguered by the oligopoly start to look at your market with jealousy and erode support for the status quo there too.

Why do you think Apple is so intent on fighting the Digital Markets Act? It's not a perfect law by any means but the thing it's attempting to do is valid and if it succeeds, Apple is going to have more competition, which they're worried about precisely because it's a thing that could actually happen.

> Regarding there must be a king - I think it'd be helpful if you could summarize your political stance in a few short sentences. I'm worried that we'll be hopelessly lost discussing minutia otherwise.

There is always going to be a government, or something that acts like one. To prevent there from being a king, the government has to do two things: 1) Prevent competing governments from forming (of which monopolies or highly concentrated markets are an instance) and 2) Not Be a Tyrant.

The first one in terms of markets is a set of rules that keep market barriers to entry low and prohibit monopolistic practices etc. The second is a set of checks and balances within the government that constrain the thing with a monopoly on violence from itself being used for empire building or private advantage.

Designing this well is, obviously, hard, but nevertheless it's the thing to do.

> I've been here a while and always been a fan of your comments

I spend too much time here.

https://xkcd.com/386/

Re: The top 10% owns 87% of the stocks

#552

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Rich people use different banks than the general population

How are you defining rich here? All these discussions people throw out relative terms and we all have different numbers in our heads. However when Democrats propose bills they start at ~$400k for W2 workers. This is not rich in NYC/SF, and these people use regular banks.

The median household income in San Francisco is $141K

Re: The top 10% owns 87% of the stocks

#553
post #258

I was very surprised by the holiday budget. Less than 2500$ for 80% of the population? Does that mean that no one from these 80% stays in a Hotel or AirBnB for longer than a week with their family? No one travels overseas, or if so, only every 5 years or so? 2000$ is what you can easily spend on plane tickets for a family of 4.

Yes? How long has it been since you checked what income percentile you are in? I would expect most of the posters here to be in the top 5%, with a short tail of unemployed and retirees. The number of Americans with passports is at an all time high of 48%, and some of that is simply for convenience ID for internal flights.

You can check here

https://dqydj.com/income-percentile-calculator/

Re: The top 10% owns 87% of the stocks

#554

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As true and important as that it, there are more harmful and more direct effects wrapped up with our record inequality than jealousy and resentment, or even hate; like the capture of our political system.* And most Americans have no idea how unequal wealth distribution really is, which means that those emotions are being easily redirected onto vulnerable groups by the people actually responsible for the gross inequal…

> * See, for example, the vast gulf between public opinion on issues like Israel, public healthcare, free education and housing for all, vs the opinion of the political and media class. While i agree with you generally (blaming domestic problems on unpopular minorities or foreign enemies is a playbook as old as time), im not sure i agree that those issues are based on class division. Large swathes of America seem to…

They don’t want public healthcare because they think poor undeserving people will get it or even worse those illegal immigrants.

Re: The top 10% owns 87% of the stocks

#555
post #31

I think about this from time to time and I suppose everything is cyclical in the end. Most of us would have been some peasant in the feudal age and when it gets really bad it always ends in a revolution of some sort. It's just on a global scale and timeframe now. As more of the population feels the effects of inequality they won't appeased by just fancy toys and shiny things, they will want change by force. My only s…

The population might not be happy, but they don't have the means to change it. Revolutions don't happen when people are mad, they happen when the ones who can afford armies and equipment sense the possibility of coming out on top. 250 years ago George Washington could have financed the entire Revolutionary War out of his own pocket and he still would have retained two thirds of his wealth. Instead he put the losses o…

>Revolutions don't happen when people are mad, they happen when the ones who can afford armies and equipment sense the possibility of coming out on top.

I agree. Too often 'revolutions' are framed as though common people were responsible for it - because it appeals to the modern day 'peasants' ( the 'middle' class and below) ideas of a 'fair' society. They are just pawns in a larger game and they are oblivious to it.

Re: The top 10% owns 87% of the stocks

#556

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tech as an investment has been doing well, and that's what he is talking about. The labor market is something else. I expect a tech crash eventually that will nuke the stock market, but good luck predicting it.

Tech stocks are the market now. If you bought Nasdaq before, at peak or after dotcom bust, then you had to wait 15 years to "break even". If you bet against tech stocks (e.g. buy S&P500) then you're down. It is historically risky to bet against the US stock market. https://infogram.com/all-recessions-1h7v4pw0g7jxj6k

It's not risky to stay on the sidelines when the market is so overvalued. This is what Warren Buffet is doing. Regardless of what you think of him, he is more sophisticated than we are. Hindsight is 20/20. The market also drops every 5-10 years by 30-50%. If you take a 50% loss even once, your money has to work way harder just to get you back to where you were before. I mean, you need to double your money to recover from a 50% downfall, which is way harder than you think and prone to another major drop. Therefore, it is worth exercising some caution in your investments. If returns look too good to be true, they probably are.

Re: The top 10% owns 87% of the stocks

#557

So a stock market and/or real estate crash can actually be good to reduce inequality . In fact I think its about the only way to dramatically reduce inequality. Think about young people trying to buy their 1st home now, its becoming impossible.

The Fed has a few papers on this issue. Their conclusion is basically that the young will eventually inherit the wealth and market forces will force a redistribution. Thus it solves itself eventually. I personally think that the Fed papers are just designed as an excuse to print money, but my point is the Fed is very far from seeing this as a problem and will never act to remedy it.

How will market forces force a redistribution when they can just invest their wealth and keep growing it even more?

Re: The top 10% owns 87% of the stocks

#558
post #31

I think about this from time to time and I suppose everything is cyclical in the end. Most of us would have been some peasant in the feudal age and when it gets really bad it always ends in a revolution of some sort. It's just on a global scale and timeframe now. As more of the population feels the effects of inequality they won't appeased by just fancy toys and shiny things, they will want change by force. My only s…

The population might not be happy, but they don't have the means to change it. Revolutions don't happen when people are mad, they happen when the ones who can afford armies and equipment sense the possibility of coming out on top. 250 years ago George Washington could have financed the entire Revolutionary War out of his own pocket and he still would have retained two thirds of his wealth. Instead he put the losses o…

Where does all that come from? Democratic revolutions have happened all over the world.

> 250 years ago George Washington could have financed the entire Revolutionary War

Could you provide some support for this claim?

Re: The top 10% owns 87% of the stocks

#559
post #172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Any risk Elon's taking is peanuts compared with George Washington taking on the world's leading colonial power...

I wouldn’t necessarily go as far as directly comparing Musk and George Washington. But I suppose there are some parallels [if we take the more cynical] perspective. Both were willing to take on significant risk to upend the established socio-economic order primarily for the benefit of their respective social classes (wealthy landholders and tech-oligarchs). But yes, confiscation of all his property and even the gallo…

[deleted]

Re: The top 10% owns 87% of the stocks

#560

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Revolutions can happen if enough people show up. Massive amounts of people are difficult to deal with. Smaller groups you can outright kill in daylight, but better to get to them first to torture and kill them out of sight. Once you need to kill 500.000 who are protesting and if violence to quell the hoards wakes up more people who want to see the regime fail.

The people of Belarus put this to test not that long ago. Massive numbers of people came out, factories went on strike, even people from the military and police spoke out against the regime. Turned out that in this day and age when the governments have unprecedented powers of surveillance and the ability to cut anyone from the respective financial system, a revolution is a really hard thing to pull off. If the Britis…

One thing the 'reactionaries' (anti-revolutionaries) do is spread propaganda of powerlessness. I'm not saying you are doing it intentionally, but they do it for a reason.
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