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OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

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Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#551

Sad to see everyone so focused on compute expense during this massive breakthrough. GPT-2 originally cost $50k to train, but now can be trained for ~$150. The key part is that scaling test-time compute will likely be a key to achieving AGI/ASI. Costs will definitely come down as is evidenced by precedents, Moore’s law, o3-mini being cheaper than o1 with improved performance, etc.

I think the question everyone has in their minds isn't "when will AGI get here" or even "how soon will it get here" — it's "how soon will AGI get so cheap that everyone will get their hands on it"

that's why everyone's thinking about compute expense. but I guess in terms of a "lifetime expense of a person" even someone who costs $10/hr isn't actually all that cheap, considering what it takes to grow a human into a fully functioning person that's able to just do stuff

Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#553
post #537

I just graduated college, and this was a major blow. I studied Mechanical Engineering and went into Sales Engineering because cause I love technology and people, but articles like this do nothing but make me dread the future. I have no idea what to specialize in, what skills I should master, or where I should be spending my time to build a successful career. Seems like we’re headed toward a world where you automate s…

[deleted]

Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#554
post #537

I just graduated college, and this was a major blow. I studied Mechanical Engineering and went into Sales Engineering because cause I love technology and people, but articles like this do nothing but make me dread the future. I have no idea what to specialize in, what skills I should master, or where I should be spending my time to build a successful career. Seems like we’re headed toward a world where you automate s…

This is me as well. Either: 1) Just give up computing entirely, the field I've been dreaming about since childhood. Perhaps if I immiserate myself with a dry regulated engineering field or trade I would perhaps survive to recursive self-improvement, but if anything the length it takes to pivot (I am a Junior in College that has already done probably 3/4th of my CS credits) means I probably couldn't get any foothold u…

Yes, some tasks, even complex tasks will become more automated, and machine driven, but that will only open up more opportunities for us as humans to take on more challenging issues. Each time a great advancement comes we think it's going to kill human productivity, but really it just amplifies it.

Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#555

Uhhhh… It was trained on ARC data? So they targeted a specific benchmark and are surprised and blown away the LLM performed well in it? What’s that law again? When a benchmark is targeted by some system the benchmark becomes useless?

Yeah, seriously. The style of testing is public, so some engineers at OpenAI could easily have spent a few months generating millions of permutations of grid-based questions and including those in the original data for training the AI. Handshakes all around, publicity for everyone.

They are running a business selling access these models to enterprises and consumers. People won’t pay for stuff that doesn’t solve real problems. Nobody pays for stuff just because of a benchmark. It’d be really weird to become obsessed with metrics gaming rather than racing to build something smarter than the other guys. Nothing wrong with curating any type of training set that actually produces something that is useful.

Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#556
post #537

I just graduated college, and this was a major blow. I studied Mechanical Engineering and went into Sales Engineering because cause I love technology and people, but articles like this do nothing but make me dread the future. I have no idea what to specialize in, what skills I should master, or where I should be spending my time to build a successful career. Seems like we’re headed toward a world where you automate s…

[deleted]

Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#557
post #537

I just graduated college, and this was a major blow. I studied Mechanical Engineering and went into Sales Engineering because cause I love technology and people, but articles like this do nothing but make me dread the future. I have no idea what to specialize in, what skills I should master, or where I should be spending my time to build a successful career. Seems like we’re headed toward a world where you automate s…

[deleted]

Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#558
post #537

I just graduated college, and this was a major blow. I studied Mechanical Engineering and went into Sales Engineering because cause I love technology and people, but articles like this do nothing but make me dread the future. I have no idea what to specialize in, what skills I should master, or where I should be spending my time to build a successful career. Seems like we’re headed toward a world where you automate s…

You have so much time to figure things out. The average person in this thread is probably 1.5-2x your age. I wouldn’t stress too much. AI is an amazing tool. Just use it to make hay while the sun shines, and if it puts you out of work and automates away all other alternatives, then you’ll be witnessing the greatest economic shift in human history. Productivity will become easier than ever, before it becomes automatic…

Back in high school I worked with some pleasant man in his 50's who was a cashier. Eventually we got to talking about jobs and it turns out he was typist (something like that) for most of his life than computers came along and now he makes close to minimum wage.

Most of the blacksmiths in the 19th century drank themselves to death after the industrial revolution. the US culture isn't one of care... Point is, it's reasonable to be sad and afraid of change, and think carefully about what to specialize in.

That said... we're at the point of diminishing returns in LLM, so I doubt any very technical jobs are being lost soon. [1]

[1] https://techcrunch.com/2024/11/20/ai-scaling-laws-are-showin...

Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#560

Earlier quoted context omitted.

some other imporant quotes: "Average human off the street: 70-80%. STEM college grad: >95%. Panel of 10 random humans: 99-100%" -@fchollet on X So, considering that the $3400/task system isn't able to compete with STEM college grad yet, we still have some room (but it is shrinking, i expect even more compute will be thrown and we'll see these barriers broken in coming years) Also, some other back of envelope calculat…

It's also worth keeping in mind that AIs are a lot less risky to deploy for businesses than humans. You can scale them up and down at any time, they can work 24/7 (including holidays) with no overtime pay and no breaks, they need no corporate campuses, office space, HR personnel or travel budgets, you don't have to worry about key employees going on sick/maternity leave or taking time off the moment they're needed mo…

AI brings similar risks - they can leak internal information, they can be tricked into performing prohibited tasks (with catastrophic effects if this is connected to core systems), they could be accused of actions that are discriminatory (biased training sets are very common).

Sure, if a business deploys it to perform tasks that are inherently low risk e.g. no client interface, no core system connection and low error impact, then the human performing these tasks is going to be replaced.

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