For everyone that lives in San Francisco: the only way we'll be able to fix our city is if we get involved. That means voting and donating to pro-growth and pro-competence political groups. That's why a4agarwal ( https://news.ycombinator.com/user?id=a4agarwal ) and I started GrowSF — we can build a better city, but only if the tech industry supports pro-growth policies and elected officials. We'd love your support! h…
San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash
551–560 of 622 posts
Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash
#552Earlier quoted context omitted.
I know people miss SF as it was before the boom, but can it actually readjust to substantially less tax revenue with the city government + responsibilities it has now? From what I read about Detroit, once businesses started shrinking or leaving the tax base shrank. The city was unable to cut down on services and spending, so it raised taxes on everyone remaining and the squeeze of more tax and worse QoL made people l…
The SF bureaucracy and homeless nonprofits have metastasized into a self licking ice cream cone of immense magnitude. There is no way to adjust downward without someone actually having to suffer a moment of accountability. That will be bitterly resisted indeed.
Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash
#553Earlier quoted context omitted.
Worked well for Detroit
I was born in San Francisco (so was my Dad, my Mom was born in Oakland and so were her parents etc.) and my family has been through many ups and downs in the Bay Area over many generations. SF used to actually be a cheaper place to live than a lot of parts of Los Angeles. There is no way it will be Detroit though. It's just too desirable of a place to live.
I lived in SF for 19 years, moved to London (family reasons, elderly parents with health issues) and are planning to return to the US. My wife put an absolute veto on returning to SF itself because of how dire the law and order situation has become.
Sad to say, but the city really needs a 1990s vintage Rudy Giuliani to clean house. Otherwise what it will get is Bernie Goetz (yes, I know, I am showing my age with my references). It seems unthinkable today, but in the 1950s and 60s SF was actually a fairly right-wing city, all mayors from 1912 to 1964 were Republicans.
Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash
#554Earlier quoted context omitted.
do you have statistics/links for this "crime not being lower, only reporting is lower" claim?
That isn’t easily shown in official studies as it only makes them look bad. Do this for me; in the middle of the day, go park your car with some boxes in the back near embarcadero, go to lunch, come back to broken windows and call the police. No one will come to take your report, then let me know what you think.
Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash
#555Earlier quoted context omitted.
My opinion is that the problem with SF isn’t as much housing. It is more with mental health and drug addiction. You do know where many immigrants live right? It isn’t so much on the streets. It is 16 packed into a single apartment. So the mechanisms people talk about already exist. It is that the homeless can’t work because of mental or social issues that compound with drug abuse. You need to fix the mental issues, s…
We can just measure this. What percentage of people we give just housing to get off their feet after say a year or two? What percentage of people we allow to shoot up in city approved areas go clean after a year or two? From what I have read, it is a percentage in the low single digits. We are perpetuating a permanent dependent underclass along with a bureaucracy that is incentivized to maintain the class to maintain…
How? Getting accurate statistics is impossible, and what we get is self reported. "I'm not on drugs anymore!" (while smoking fent) is not uncommon. Every group will roll out self reported data to support their positions, scientific studies are frowned on, if they are even possible anyways.
Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash
#556Earlier quoted context omitted.
Did you read the paper you cited? They don't look at all overdoses, only the overdoses that happen at these sites. It's a fairly weak paper and doesn't justify your claim. > This study only includes an analysis of known overdoses at the SCS site. Future research could also examine the rates of overdoses in the community, to achieve a broader understanding of overdose management and prevention across settings.
> They don't look at all overdoses, only the overdoses that happen at these sites. Overdoses that happen at the sites are overdoses that don't happen on the street. More studies: - https://www.emcdda.europa.eu/system/files/publications/2734/... - https://www.aafp.org/pubs/afp/issues/2022/0500/p454.html - https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2015435 - https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34218964/ More articles: - ht…
The problem is we're continuing to encourage open air street usage of drugs (for example by giving out bags of needles). For safe consumption sites to be accepted, that should stop.
Additionally, it helps to have more frequent cleanups of trash around the site, giving local residents a hotline, more regular police patrols of the surrounding blocks, etc.
European countries have different systems in place. Some of them, you can actually get drugs prescribed by a doctor. This is more sensible than relying on the "market" to provide drugs.
Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash
#557Earlier quoted context omitted.
We can just measure this. What percentage of people we give just housing to get off their feet after say a year or two? What percentage of people we allow to shoot up in city approved areas go clean after a year or two? From what I have read, it is a percentage in the low single digits. We are perpetuating a permanent dependent underclass along with a bureaucracy that is incentivized to maintain the class to maintain…
> We can just measure this. How? Getting accurate statistics is impossible, and what we get is self reported. "I'm not on drugs anymore!" (while smoking fent) is not uncommon. Every group will roll out self reported data to support their positions, scientific studies are frowned on, if they are even possible anyways.
Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash
#558Earlier quoted context omitted.
I agree. Your Democratic mayors and supervisors did that. They tore down the SOMA SROs and replaced them with tech campuses without a plan of where to house those people. But it is multi-factorial. You have mental health institutions closed down a decade earlier as well. They should have been reformed instead of closed down.
> Your Democratic mayors and supervisors did that. You mean: the people who run the cities did that, who all happen to be incredibly Democratic. They also did it in San Diego, where I bet a Republican mayor was in power at the time (since you know, that was mostly true in the 80s, 90s, and 00s), but economics rather than political ideology was the main driver of the gentrification. > You have mental health institutio…
https://igeek.com/Reagan_emptied_mental_institutions_and_cau...
So you don't assign any responsibility to the people who passed it? How quaint. Why even bother to vote? BTW, one of them is governor right now.
If a Republican did it, vote them out of office too.
In the SF case that I was referring to, it really was all Democrats. I was talking just about SF. Brown opened it up. Newsom continued it.
Having trouble with basic reading comprehension, facts, and culpability? Or just biased?
Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash
#559Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'm not convinced that we're getting what we pay for, or that we're funding the most important things -- no one's life is being ruined by an insufficient quantity of library books, or access to too few museums. I'm glad we have the hetch hetchy water we do. I'm glad when the East Bay has brownouts SF often doesn't. The botanical gardens are _nice_. But again: ~$16k per head. For comparison, I checked and Denver is pr…
I feel like we have a lot of non-critical stuff that we should be able to cut. Right. And if you don't value books, music, or art then San Francisco is not for you. There are plenty of other more bare bones cities to live in. Even in the Bay Area. You would likely be much happier in a city like Emeryville or Denver. It costs more to do more. San Francisco does a lot of things that other consolidated cities push off o…
I did not say anything about cutting services for the homeless, and I think it's in poor form for you to try to ascribe any belief to me which I have not actually expressed. When I say that the safe sleeping sites cost more per tent than market-rate 1BDs, it's because it's pretty stupid that during the pandemic we didn't actually just put people in apartments -- it's not the services that we've rendered but the cruel and inefficient way we've insisted on delivering them. It's also stupid that we pay cops to do street sweeps, we pay DPW to install boulders on sidewalks to prevent people sleeping there, both of which are only moving symptoms. It's also stupid that Breed prematurely started shutting down the room-key program when there was still plenty of _federal_ funding available for it. If anything, I would say that SF is being simultaneously inefficient and lacking in empathy.
What we should cut is anyone in municipal government who has come within a 3 meters of parties involved in the ongoing corruption revelations. We should cut out any future work with the contracting firms involved in the Twin Peaks tunnel retrofit that had to be done twice, or the Central Subway project blew past all timeline and budget expectations, and we should seriously look at the relationships between specific people in city hall and the firms that get lucrative contracts. When the city is over-paying, I think it's frequently because someone in city government has something to gain.
If you don't think there's stuff we can prune easily, I think you're not looking.
- SFUSD needs to support actual teachers, but it seems like there's plenty of room to cut administrators. I wonder how many of those administrators had a personal connection inside the system prior to landing their role? https://48hills.org/2022/03/sfusds-big-administrative-expens...
- How about stopping the Cultural Districts program which lacks a basic ability to engage with the cultures it claims to honor? The Leather & LGBT district commissioned art from queer artists which it refused to even display. The whole thing arrived after most of the relevant businesses had folded. Largely the result is some land+hardscaping by The Eagle.
- What about stuff that we spend money on that the city just can't do competently regardless of resources? I think the federal reaction to the conditions at Laguna Honda is heavy-handed, but given that there have been problems for multiple years, the administration can't credibly promise to resolve them in any pre-stated timeline. Maybe there's a reason other cities don't try to run long-term nursing facilities.
And frankly, a bunch of the stuff you listed earlier is pretty regressive. There's a strong relationship between neighborhood, income, and who goes to the legion of honor or De Young. Most of the people who enter the botanical garden for free as SF residents could easily pay for entry. Why should Bayshore residents subsidize Sunset residents spending their day in a garden? And other stuff could be means tested without destroying the primary benefit. I think the Free City program at City College is a great idea for giving people access to college -- but there's no compelling reason that a well-paid techie who wants to do a language or arts class on the side needs to be subsidized.
Don't try to put words in my mouth, and don't try to act like you get to be a gatekeeper on who belongs in this city.
Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash
#560Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think flooding the market in new living spaces would decrease demand, leading to lower rent.
Sometimes it feels like the people who own these buildings would rather let them rot, than make less than premium top-dollar market value.