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The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

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Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#551

Post by tuatoru »

zizee wrote: post #409
bobthepanda wrote: post #362

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You’re forgetting household size. As with all wealthy countries, household size has fallen in Portugal over the past few decades, so the same amount of people needs more house. This is especially true in the context of empty nest retirees.

So that could be one of the extra factors that we're looking for. People want/expect more, which has caused people to have to pay more. But I'm doubtful that it is going to account for a lot of the cost of living issue in Portugal. I'd still like the GP to connect the dots for me on his "it's all demographics" argument. It sounds like are argument you hear on Reddit.

Besides what bcrosby says, old people hold on to real estate "as an investment". In many cases they actively prefer that it be unoccupied, because occupants complain and want repairs done, and so on.

Or, in the case of "world cities" like London, wealthy (nearly all old) people from shaky and shady regimes around the world buy them as places to escape to if need be.

As well as falling household size in occupied dwellings, the proportion of unoccupied dwellings in these cities increases far above the percentage normal for the delays inherent in ordinary buying and selling.

IIRC Paris is attempting to combat this with a surtax on dwellings unoccupied for long periods.

Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#552

Post by unmole »

spaceman_2020 wrote: post #313
sofixa wrote: post #284

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure you deserve engaging, but I'll give it a try. So you're just going to ignore a war involving two of the biggest exporters of some of the main raw materials we have (foodstuffs and energy) on the planet and associated supply problems on crucial things? Not to mention a pandemic that wrecked havoc on supply lines. None of that matters, your theory goes, it's purely a monetary phenomenon, because only count…

Inflation isn’t terribly bad in countries that didn’t print wild amounts of money. Like in India, inflation is almost back in control, and we didn’t print much money. Same in China. I haven’t run the numbers but if you were to chart inflation vs the money printing done by an economy, you’d likely find a positive correlation.

If inflation is a purely monetary phenomenon caused by printing money, why do Telangana and Sikkim experience higher inflation than the national average?

> I haven’t run the numbers but if you were to chart inflation vs the money printing done by an economy, you’d likely find a positive correlation.

As a member of the Eurozone, Estonia can't print money. That didn't stop it from inflation hitting 23%.

It's almost as if inflation is influenced by local factors...

Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#553

Post by I_AM_A_SMURF »

epolanski wrote: post #387
squarefoot wrote: post #122

> flats with just two bedrooms going for more than half a million euros in the centers of Lisbon or Oporto. How is that different from other places? Houses in the center of big cities are always a lot more expensive than others far away from it. Want a small one in the center of Rome? Here you are: 27mq, 2nd floor and no elevator, no heating, no air conditioning, abysmal energy efficiency, no kitchen, renovation need…

I'm from Rome and your example is cherrypicked bs. Yes, very central touristic areas are expensive but half a million can get you 3 room apartments you can go to center by feet, even less would be enough. That's the price you would pay, e.g. in Ostiense.

lol you can see the freaking Pantheon from the window, come on.

Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#554

Post by Hermitian909 »

screye wrote: post #363
jonathanstrange wrote: post #97

Yes, the situation is dire. I live in Lisbon as a foreigner for more than 12 years now. We pay a rent for a small flat that used to be very expensive and now is on the cheap side in our quarter of the city. Luckily, we have an older contract that cannot be changed as easily as newer ones. I'm not thrilled by the possibility that our landlord might cancel it some day, however, e.g. for relatives to move in. Rents in t…

Airbnb and uber for all their benefits have taken away a lot of urban planning capabilities of local govts. At the same time, they expose the general unwillingness of local govts to accomodate the need of the population or those who bring in economic value (tourists, transplants). If you are becoming a tourist hub, then create an off-town tourist area and add a convenient transit line/people mover to the central part…

> Prohibition never works, and piracy is a reflection of an unmet need. Banning things merely airs out open wounds, and leads to grey-markets such as shady uber/airbnb equivalents within the city.

What do you mean by "works"? Yes, grey markets will pop up, but if Portugal banned AirBnB style renting that the market for that housing wouldn't shrink?

It seems to me that prohibition might be a useful tool in a more comprehensive set of policies to address the problem.

Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#555

Post by kube-system »

wyager wrote: post #508
jonathanstrange wrote: post #97

Yes, the situation is dire. I live in Lisbon as a foreigner for more than 12 years now. We pay a rent for a small flat that used to be very expensive and now is on the cheap side in our quarter of the city. Luckily, we have an older contract that cannot be changed as easily as newer ones. I'm not thrilled by the possibility that our landlord might cancel it some day, however, e.g. for relatives to move in. Rents in t…

> one big problem in societies nowadays is that you can simply get richer and richer just from owning property If this was true, everyone would buy REITs until it wasn't

That basically is what happens, repeatedly. We call them housing bubbles.

Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#556

Post by raverbashing »

personalidea wrote: post #269
armchairhacker wrote: post #265

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’ve literally seen this same exact comment many, many times except with different locations. Eastern Mass, New York, Ontario, Britain, and even starting to hear it from suburban areas. The exact same concepts: cheap grandfathered lease, hoping the landlord doesn’t cancel, can’t afford rent despite making >100k, “luxury apartments”, empty apartments, illegal renting (e.g. AirBnB) and shadiness.

Germany is working to make its spot on the list. At least in the cities.

Given that rental laws in Germany can't even be broken if you buy a property for your own use ("in theory" yes but in practice...) it is not surprising why the traditional rental market is the last place someone will want to have their property

Tenant protection is good, but it breaks down in high-demand situations. And of course the better solution is to solve this on the supply side

Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#557

Post by unmole »

stjohnswarts wrote: post #252
DrNosferatu wrote: post #225

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1. "banning foreign ownership" would result in Portugalexit at best, perhaps a Zairization of Portugal, or even worse - no thanks. What's wrong with large industrial projects? It's exactly what we need at this moment - in fact, both Portugal and EU-scale. This would cost a small fraction of the Quantitative Easing program from the European Central Bank. (and these Massive Real Estate buildouts must include the lesson…

(1). why not just make it painful to be a foreigner there. Raise taxes on rent/property if you're foreign by 3-4x (or whatever makes sense after an analysis of building new housing from foreigner tax dollars). If you don't want to scare off the ones already there then make it not retroactive. People like to make these situations tougher than they need to be. Mostly it's impossible because politicians are paid off by…

> why not just make it painful to be a foreigner there

In a country with a TFR of ~1.4 and a median age of ~47. What could possibly go wrong? It's not like Portugal is seeing a declining population or anything. Oh, wait.

Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#558

Post by jdougan »

unmole wrote: post #552
spaceman_2020 wrote: post #313

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Inflation isn’t terribly bad in countries that didn’t print wild amounts of money. Like in India, inflation is almost back in control, and we didn’t print much money. Same in China. I haven’t run the numbers but if you were to chart inflation vs the money printing done by an economy, you’d likely find a positive correlation.

If inflation is a purely monetary phenomenon caused by printing money , why do Telangana and Sikkim experience higher inflation than the national average? > I haven’t run the numbers but if you were to chart inflation vs the money printing done by an economy, you’d likely find a positive correlation. As a member of the Eurozone, Estonia can't print money . That didn't stop it from inflation hitting 23%. It's almost a…

Cantillion effects possibly

Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#559

Post by tuatoru »

zizee wrote: post #346
tuatoru wrote: post #297

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, facts. Demographics explains most of what's going on. Portugal's working age population is declining[1] while its 60-plus population is increasing.[2] Old people own most of the real estate and don't care much about workers. They also tend not to like change, which immigrants bring. So they dislike immigrants despite depending on them. (//TODO: find papers supporting these assertions: they're factoids of the "e…

I'm struggling to follow your arguments. "Boomers don't like immigrants/workers, therefore life is getting really expensive" doesn't really sound like good reasoning. If the population is shrinking, demographics doesn't explain it by itself. Housing should be getting cheaper if there are less people competing for it. There must be another factor here.

"Boomers don't like immigrants/workers, therefore life is getting really expensive" mischaracterises my argument. In hindsight I should have left out superfluous phrases.

The fully elaborated argument is long and somewhat nuanced. If you want a soundbite, how's this: "Boomers own all the stuff (to a first approximation). Two other things: first, due to their wealth they can outbid Zoomers for real estate as it comes onto the market. (Having someone live in the proprty is entirely optional.) Second, boomers are adept at protecting their wealth by keeping real estate scarce and taxes on real estate negligible, as they have always been."

Or: people are not competing for houses, piles of money are. The bigger piles are winning.

Edit to add: Demographics comes into it because the Boomers are the first generation in history to be so economically significant in their old age.

Before the boomers, life expectancy was about the same as retirement age, or younger. Houses passed on to the next generation much sooner in their life cycle, often as they were just starting to have children of their own. Now, children can themselves be retired before parents die and leave them the house. Often, perhaps usually, are, these days.

The market weakness of new-household-forming adults (the 18-49 age group) is one consequence.

We are in uncharted territory, demographically, this century.

Re: The Portuguese can no longer afford to live in Portugal

#560

Post by refurb »

tjr225 wrote: post #535
refurb wrote: post #511

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd argue that trend is reversing, just like it did in the 1960's. Quality of life issues eventually drive people to live in the outer suburbs, further exacerbating issues within city cores (e.g. San Francisco right now).

You can argue it all you want but the numbers don’t support it. If the demand is going down then why is it becoming more expensive? Also, white flight in the 60s was a move to the suburbs- many would consider that given the density of 2020, the suburbs are feeling the same crunch. Bellevue and other suburbs are more expensive than Seattle. I’m guessing there are suburbs of SF that are more expensive than SF.

Prices are dropping in San Francisco, especially condos which are below pre-Covid prices now.

And you yourself said "Bellevue and other suburbs are more expensive than Seattle." Which would infer that yes, people are leaving the city and moving to suburbs.

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