What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped • Hacker News Board

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#551

Post by brimble » Wed, Mar 02, 2022, 9:46 PM UTC

littlestymaar wrote: post #534

gitfan86 wrote: post #518

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia has claimed that the mission is to liberate Ukraine from Nazis, which is why you see videos of unarmed civilians not being immediately run over by trucks. If the mission changes to kill as many civilians as possible, the army is going to have an even worse morale problem and the international community will come up with a creative solution like giving part of Poland to Ukraine, giving Ukrainian citizenship to…

> Russia has claimed that the mission is to liberate Ukraine from Nazis, which is why you see videos of unarmed civilians not being immediately run over by trucks. > If the mission changes to kill as many civilians as possible, the army is going to have an even worse morale problem I agree. This is indeed one of the biggest challenge the Russian army will face if they decide to do so. > the international community wi…

The more realistic "creative use of borders" I anticipate is citing historic claims of (mostly) Poland to carve off a big chunk of Ukraine in the West into a new state, and put it under explicit or implied ("just try and see what happens") NATO protection. I don't expect that unless Russia starts having a lot more success, though, and both they and Ukraine start to signal that they might accept a partition of the country to end hostilities.

[EDIT] Further caveat that it'd have to be before substantial Russian ground forces reach that part of the country. This is still a low-likelihood scenario, but certainly far more likely than declaring part of Poland to be in Ukraine (?!)

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#552

Post by watwut » Wed, Mar 02, 2022, 9:46 PM UTC

MiroF wrote: post #156

watwut wrote: post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Holodomor is relevant, ot orthogonal. I meant purgers, internal thing toward Russians. Oh, and yes, 2011 to 2015 is long time of escalations. The question is whether they will pull punches when ennemy don't give up.

> Holodomor is relevant, ot orthogonal. > I meant purgers, internal thing toward Russians. Neither of those were covered on the TV. They are also from over half a century ago. > 2011 to 2015 is long time of escalations. But 2014 to 2022 isn't? The idea that Russians care equally about the lives of Syrians and the lives of ethnic Russians & Ukrainians is fantasy. It's obviously false, even if Russians killed Russians…

Russian TV is not broadcasting Ukraine war. For that matter, western tvs are not broadcasting full brutality of wars either. It is all sanitized for viewers good feelings.

> 2014 to 2022

Sure, Ukraine actually got ready to defend. Russia actually got to the point of being ready to start war again.

But, actual full war started last week with hope of 96 hours till victory, installation of puppet goverment and weak divided west. They wanted them to be kind of like Belarus, useful for further own plans.

> The idea that Russians care equally about the lives of Syrians and the lives of ethnic Russians & Ukrainians is fantasy. It's obviously false, even if Russians killed Russians in purges 60 years ago.

They don't care about Ukrainians lives at all. If they keep not winning, they will move to deep active hate. Ukrainians are already nazi for them and that includes the Jewish president. And that sentiment is real inside Russians who do believe oficial version.

Purges were not 60 years ago. They were the thing Stalin shot himself into own leg right before WWII. But, fuckup at start is on brand here. Stalin has raising popularity as maligned father of Russia in Russia last 10-15 years.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#553

Post by rendall » Wed, Mar 02, 2022, 9:46 PM UTC

Cd00d wrote: post #353

jl6 wrote: post #261

I guess everyone's weighing in with their view, so why not? Firstly, we should be mindful that the fog of war is now in play, and a good amount of what we think we know is unverifiable. With that caveat out of the way... It seems that the Russian soldiers are making efforts to avoid attacking civilians directly. Counterexamples exist and could be explained by rogue units, incompetence, or hot-blooded revenge on local…

suzerainty You can't just lob a hundred dollar word out like that! I spent several moments trying to figure out what your typo was before allowing the possibility that you didn't have one. a relationship in which one state or other polity controls the foreign policy and relations of a tributary state, while allowing the tributary state to have internal autonomy

Are the States of the US suzerains of the Federal government?

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#554

Post by gamblor956 » Wed, Mar 02, 2022, 9:47 PM UTC

kaesar14 wrote: post #326

helloworld11 wrote: post #232

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>And so experts are trying to figure out what calculus went into Russia's invasion planning (assuming there was a coherent strategy going in, which is not a given in the post-Trump world). Because there was a much greater absence of incoherent strategies by political and military leaders in the world prior to Trump being president of one specific country? No real fan of the man but the need to cram in a Trump-hate re…

Yeah, it's clearly the Trump Presidency that led to Operation Barbarossa.

The difference is that Putin has previously accomplished himself as a competent military leader, and Hitler had not.

Though you are right in that there are huge similarities between the two campaigns: in both cases, it appears that the executive leader ignored the advice of his military advisors to launch disastrous military campaigns that actually ended up hindering the non-military objectives behind those campaigns.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#555

Post by rightbyte » Wed, Mar 02, 2022, 9:47 PM UTC

ProjectArcturis wrote: post #200

999900000999 wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Article 5 provides that if a NATO Ally is the victim of an armed attack, each and every other member of the Alliance will consider this act of violence as an armed attack against all members and will take the actions it deems necessary to assist the Ally attacked. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_110496.htm Like I said, I'm not enlisting if the Russians invade Poland. If individual American citizens want to…

Lol yes, history shows that aggressive dictators just want to conquer Poland, and if we give it to them they'll stop there.

He'd stop in East Germany though ...

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#556

Post by commandlinefan » Wed, Mar 02, 2022, 9:49 PM UTC

I remember reading once in the late 90's - a bit after the fall of the Soviet Union - that U.S. inspectors toured some of the then-declassified Soviet ICBM launch facilities and they came to the conclusion that the missiles would not have survived liftoff much less reached their targets. If Russia was overstating its nuclear capabilities throughout the 80's, is it possible that they've been overstating their military capabilities in general?

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#557

Post by sharikous » Wed, Mar 02, 2022, 9:52 PM UTC

raducu wrote: post #373

hgomersall wrote: post #288

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I still can't see how (b) doesn't still lead to (c). He needs to control the security apparatus, and that means essentially being an occupying force. It's not like the Ukrainians have not already have their security trampled all over already, so the usual limits on a popular uprising are gone already.

You have no idea about the darkness and effectiveness of modern tyranny. Russia is pretty much North Korea in democracy at this point or they will become so very soon. Putin wants the sanctions to be over. His next move will be to create devastation in Ukraine and hold civilians as hostages for the lifting of the sanctions. In anycase, Russia will controll South of Ukraine, link up with Transnistria and even if they…

That's insightful and cynic. Possibly right too.

But why "modern tyranny"? Wars like that are not a novelty... or is it about taking civilians as hostages?

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#558

Post by SyzygistSix » Wed, Mar 02, 2022, 9:52 PM UTC

older wrote: post #297

AtlasBarfed wrote: post #169

Yeah, I was under the impression pre-Ukraine that Russia was an "nth generation" fighter supplier, and therefore should have air superiority almost by default. I was corrected that nobody seems to buy Russia's offerings, and those that were made are basically for show and not in mass production. I also realized that air superiority, as in expensive jets attacking from distance and altitude, might not matter if the en…

I don't think anyone who've seen Russian made Lada would dare to buy Russian made fighter jets.

By that metric everyone should be buying Japanese fighter jets. The US was making kick-ass fighter jets at what might be the nadir of the US car industry. Then again, Russian cars do indeed represent an all-time low.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#559

Post by wewtyflakes » Wed, Mar 02, 2022, 9:54 PM UTC

dathinab wrote: post #405

michael1999 wrote: post #269

I'd be worried that any un-married fighter pilots might just defect. A quick run to Poland, and you're done.

I don't think Russia would let you take the jet with you. I mean whatever their situation is, I'm pretty sure they still can assassinate defecting pilots. And I'm pretty sure the pilots know.

You would think so, but perhaps not! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viktor_Belenko

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#560

Post by brimble » Wed, Mar 02, 2022, 9:55 PM UTC

oblio wrote: post #506

brimble wrote: post #501

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's basic vocabulary in poli-sci or international relations studies or circles. Less obscure (in the context of those fields) than much of the engineering, math, and computer nerd jargon that gets thrown around on here regularly. Likely to be encountered in adjacent fields, notably history. It's about one small notch more obscure than the term "hegemony".

It could also be more common for non-native English speakers, for example native speakers of Romance languages. I'm reasonably sure we were taught about suzerainty ("suzeranitate" in Romanian) during high school history lessons.

It's definitely more a "college level" term in the US, but very much undergrad, if that makes sense. Good chance someone who even minored in certain social science fields will know it (decent odds they'll have employed it on a written exam a time or three), plus most people who just have a hobby-level but long-running interest in those kinds of things. A good high school course might expose students to the term, but I doubt it's common, at least outside elite prep schools.