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Five Oregon counties vote to leave state, create 'Greater Idaho'

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Re: Five Oregon counties vote to leave state, create 'Greater Idaho'

#551

Post by kolbe »

newacct583 wrote: post #499
adventured wrote: post #451

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> A lot of people in America seem to believe that the hardworking "real Americans" in the middle of the country are subsidizing the poorly-run coastal liberal enclaves. By far the most heavily subsidized, most expensive, poorest and least educated people in the United States are the poor living in urban zones. It's not even remotely a close comparison in terms of numbers. You can see it in the crime statistics, you c…

> violent criminals [...] which urban zones produce radically more of That's just not true. A quick google pulls up this visualization from 2017: https://www.santarosa-lawyer.com/united-states-crime-map-201... And you'll note that... there's basically no correlation with urbanity at all. Highly urban states like CT are very peaceful, but so is Idaho (but not Montana, which is pretty bad). Two of the worst states are…

Your analysis lumps all violence equally, and suffers greatly from the variance inherent in reporting of “light” violent the crime.

Homicides are much better to look at. There is very little difference between Alaska and New Orleans in their reporting of homicides. And when you judge rural vs urban by homicide rate, urban is much larger. Of the top 10 counties with the highest homicide rate, 4 are major metropolitan areas. This is particularly shocking because small sample sizes of small counties should make it so every single member of the top 10 is rural, but it’s not.

https://www.police1.com/ambush/articles/10-us-counties-with-...

Re: Five Oregon counties vote to leave state, create 'Greater Idaho'

#552

Post by montagg »

Spooky23 wrote: post #537
legitster wrote: post #492

I think it's interesting that the actual proposal is RIFE with some really, really bad analysis: https://www.greateridaho.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Grea... The best example is how they treat averages: As part of their "win-win" scenario: the new average income for the state of Oregon would rise. As if individuals would actually directly benefit from the average arbitrarily going up. Inversely, one of the benefit…

People who are into this sort of thing are typically not so good at analysis. Every few years some Republican assemblyman proposes splitting “downstate” NY from “upstate”. (itself a matter of debate in some quarters) It gets some play with the AM radio crowd, than someone shows the guy the math, and they go back to some other issue.

One day, the math person isn't going to convince them otherwise.

Re: Five Oregon counties vote to leave state, create 'Greater Idaho'

#553

Post by d110af5ccf »

ModernMech wrote: post #404
chrononaut wrote: post #399

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They are providing an example of another situation that has been difficult as the two parties can take polar opposite positions on (1) whether something is an issue, and (2) how to solve that issue, often without understanding each other's view point and how they came to that view point. I see the outside reference fitting here.

I just thought it brought an unnecessary and questionable dichotomy to the discussion. For example, I support gun rights and own many guns. My libertarian and conservative friends support drug decriminalization. The other poster brought up an "either-or, both-sides" framing into what seemed to otherwise be a productive discussion. There was no mention of "parties" or "sides". I have no idea what "side" anyone else be…

> I have no idea what "side" anyone else belongs to, and I don't see why it matters.

You're missing the point entirely. Drugs aren't an isolated example. There are a number of highly divisive issues in the US for which the majority of Americans appear to hold largely emotionally based views. (Note that the degree to which a view is emotional is entirely orthogonal to whether or not it can be arrived at rationally.)

> There was no mention of "parties" or "sides".

And yet in practice, the vast majority of opposition to drug decriminalization (let alone outright legalization) comes from more conservative people. Such divides exist in a statistical sense whether you like it or not.

Your points about the relative inefficiencies and overall failures of the current approach to drugs based on available data is well taken. However, when it comes to highly divisive issues such as this one, it seems that simply appealing to rationality in this manner is not a viable tactic on its own for the majority of people. The analogy to gun laws helps to illustrate this fact - imagine how the majority of liberals would react to a "rational" explanation of why a particular gun law was unlikely to improve things.

Re: Five Oregon counties vote to leave state, create 'Greater Idaho'

#554

Post by rufus_foreman »

bobthepanda wrote: post #469
tppiotrowski wrote: post #467

Grant voted 1,471 to 895 for county officials “to meet and discuss relocating Idaho border.” Lake voted 1,341 to 463 for the “relocation of Idaho border” to be taken up in “county board of commissioners meetings.” Malheur voted 3,050 to 2,572 for “county court meetings regarding relocation of Oregon-Idaho border.” Sherman voted 429 to 260 in favor of “promoting moving Oregon-Idaho border.” Baker voted 3,064 to 2,307…

There’s also the question of whether or not Idaho would actually want to take them.

Sounds like the governor of Idaho is down with it:

In an interview with Fox News, Idaho Gov. Brad Little said he understands why some rural Oregonians want to redraw the borders.

"They’re looking at Idaho fondly because of our regulatory atmosphere, our values, Little told Fox News. What they’re interested in is they would like to have a little more autonomy, a little more control, a little more freedom and I can understand that."

Re: Five Oregon counties vote to leave state, create 'Greater Idaho'

#555

Post by vineyardmike »

vineyardmike wrote: post #381
URSpider94 wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would love to see the data, but from the data I have seen, the data conflict with the popular (populist) narrative. A lot of people in America seem to believe that the hardworking "real Americans" in the middle of the country are subsidizing the poorly-run coastal liberal enclaves. In reality, the money almost always flows in the other direction; taxpayers in cities are subsidizing the rural-dwellers. This has noth…

I drove through a few of the counties (eg. baker) mentioned in the article to visit a dog breeder, and the breeder had (nearly) her own highway exit. Complete with 2 overpasses. Must cost millions to build and maintain. Her house was the only one visible for as far as you could see from that exit. All i could think about was how much better her life was for that exit and how all her total tax income forever could nev…

I wish i could edit still.

My point was not to somehow cast this woman in a bad light, or claim that this exit shouldn't exist.

My point was...

(in my bubble) I hear the argument from conservatives that social welfare (for inner-city people getting checks) is bad because it takes away from everyone else, and wastes money.

I just wanted to point out that there is a lot more money subsidizing the livelihood a lot more people than just the poor city people getting some sort of social welfare check.

Re: Five Oregon counties vote to leave state, create 'Greater Idaho'

#556

Post by d110af5ccf »

cratermoon wrote: post #189
buzzert wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One particular example might be Oregon’s decision to decriminalize all drugs[0] during a time when overdoses are at an all time high[1] and increasing over 40% in just the last year. You might say the political party who calls the war on drugs “cruel and inhumane” is acting on emotion rather than reason in spite of all the statistics. [0]: https://drugpolicy.org/press-release/2021/02/drug-decriminal... [1]: https://w…

> decriminalize all drugs[0] during a time when overdoses are at an all time high[1] and increasing over 40% in just the last year. You're assuming overdose rates are negatively correlated with criminalization of drugs. Have you considered the possibility that it's exactly the opposite, then when drugs are decriminalized, people can have access to better information and health care? If you're a professional and you h…

> then maybe one day you OD because you never talk about it

And also because the substances you're consuming aren't subject to the vast array of safety mechanisms that exist for all other pharmaceuticals. You don't have anywhere near the same level of quality guarantees.

Compared to the synthesis and purification of complex organics, the distillation of ethanol is difficult to mess up. People still died of poisoning during prohibition though.

Re: Five Oregon counties vote to leave state, create 'Greater Idaho'

#557

Post by halostatue »

autokad wrote: post #530
halostatue wrote: post #506

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not so much on the famine bit, except perhaps in the U.S. and Canada. The unfairness of farm subsidies is that there’s also essentially no _controls_ on the output. The government can’t turn around and mandate particular growing practices, in part because farming companies and larger farmers have gotten used to the subsidies and how they work. In Canada, at least, subsidies are also tied to production controls and st…

#1 ) I dont think you understand how sensitive the global food supply is to changes. #2) The US isn't just a net exporter of food, its one of the dominant food producers (in exports) in the world. A country like Canada only became a net exporter of food in ~2019. These US exports are primary stables like corn, beef, pork, etc. #3) f-35 funding is tangential to the conversation. bringing it up only makes you sound un-…

1. I do, in fact, understand. I also understand that the US’s subsidies distort international markets, and that the US’s entire food aid program (which is a large part of those subsidies) severely distorts local markets and disincentivizes farm production in poorer countries.

2. They are _American_ staples. They are not necessarily staples in receiving countries, and as noted above, may actually be distorting local markets and foodways. I would also argue that subsidies for American farmers should _not_ be applied to export crops, as noted above.

3. Not tangential at all. America could divert a small fraction of its military budget into meaningful wage subsidies for farm workers that could make farm labour more attractive to more people. America spends more money on its military than the next ten biggest military spenders in the world.

Yes, I exaggerated that a single F-35 could provide this sort of subsidy. My point, however, stands.

Re: Five Oregon counties vote to leave state, create 'Greater Idaho'

#558

Post by listless »

yesBoot wrote: post #139
listless wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Another _could_ be letting people in Portland tear the city apart with impunity.

For most folks in Portland, pandemic aside, it’s been life as usual. I have yet to encounter lefties in my SE hood terrorizing anyone. Plenty of Trump caravans last year, waking us up, shooting guns. All from outside the city. Sure violence is up but it’s up all over. A side effect of a nation coddling old wealth, leaving the masses to rot.

Then the media is utterly and in conspiracy theory fashion lying about the situation on a daily basis. I’m not saying that’s not the case, just that it’s not the message the rest of us are getting, maybe and including these counties wanting out.

Re: Five Oregon counties vote to leave state, create 'Greater Idaho'

#559

Post by seanmcdirmid »

ralusek wrote: post #544
seanmcdirmid wrote: post #523

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fox News reports the same dumpster fire each night (often just reusing video footage each day), I’m not sure how serious they are if they are aiming to burn down the courthouse. Yes, dumpster fires are illegal and those starting them should be punished, but it’s a stretch to say they are trying to burn down the courthouse.

I don't watch Fox News, wouldn't know. But you're under the impression that the illiberal black bloc collectives do not exist in any serious capacity in Portland?

They do exist, but their numbers and impact is overblown for propaganda reasons on the right.

Re: Five Oregon counties vote to leave state, create 'Greater Idaho'

#560

Post by ralusek »

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #559
ralusek wrote: post #544

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't watch Fox News, wouldn't know. But you're under the impression that the illiberal black bloc collectives do not exist in any serious capacity in Portland?

They do exist, but their numbers and impact is overblown for propaganda reasons on the right.

Numbers being overblown? The protests from the left which have dominated the public consciousness have been motivated around the idea that unarmed black people are being killed en masse by the police, a fate literally less likely to happen than a person being struck by lightning. Please explain to me how you determine what exactly constitutes numbers being overblown for propaganda purposes.
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