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US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

bbc.co.uk

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Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#551

Post by AndrewBissell »

jaegerpicker wrote: post #406

7 people out of 7 million dose's. That's why they stopped. My wife and I got the J&J shot on Saturday so I'm directly at risk and I'd take it everytime even if the risk was 10 times what it currently is. I've already seen a bunch of anit-vaxers referring to this in new articles this morning. So let's see, 1 in a million chance that the vaccine will make you sick (only 1 person has died so far, which is terrible but i…

> oh and is 100% effective at stopping you from dying. Literally no one that has received the vaccine has died from COVID19.

This is misinformation (and I call it that because it is being widely repeated in major new sources). It's an improper generalization from what was observed in a very small sample of confirmed Covid cases in the vaccine trials.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucelee/2021/04/11/3-breakthro...

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#552

Post by FunnyLookinHat »

lamontcg wrote: post #468
FunnyLookinHat wrote: post #459

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah and we only just started to roll this vaccine out - so it's fair to say that the risk will likely grow beyond that. You're right that 7 / 7,000,000 are good odds, and most people would likely take them - but it would be unwise to not give people an educated choice between vaccines if there are known risks.

> so it's fair to say that the risk will likely grow beyond that. not really. that's not how statistics work. it could grow, it could shrink.

I guess I wasn't being specific - good correction. Reporting medical side effects can easily lag with new treatments, especially when we're not sure what we're looking for.

I suspect that, as soon as we start looking for blood clotting post-vaccine, then you'll find more cases that may have not been caught otherwise due to their not being severe enough to be noticed.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#553

Post by njarboe »

doikor wrote: post #502
raverbashing wrote: post #497

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It is that it is an unknown side effect that did not come up in the original studies. Well, obviously it didn't. Exactly because it is so rare A clinical study with (I think) 30k people can't detect something that's 1 in a million case

Yes. And that is why when something like this pops up we stop giving out the treatment while we look at the new data and make the decision.

So we stop giving out treatment and an extra 1000-10000(?) people die and we delay the economy getting back on track for a week or two with the delay. No skin off the FDA bureaucrats teeth, but they are hurting a lot of people with this decision.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#554

Post by mahogany »

throwaway8581 wrote: post #536
fastball wrote: post #529

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not exactly sure what procreation has to do with anything. Also pretty sure risk of death outweighs literally any possible long-tail risk, so still seems sensible for the young to get the vax. Also don't think the long-tail risk of an mRNA vaccine can be worse then COVID's long-tail risk.

We have never deployed an mRNA vaccine before. We don't know what effect it might have on gametes.

Do you have reason to believe that it can affect gametes? In other words, do you know of any hypothesized mechanism by which this could happen?

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#555

Post by UncleOxidant »

JediWing wrote: post #500
UncleOxidant wrote: post #309

John Campbell suggested on his video the other day that perhaps this is happening because some injectors are not aspirating. What that means is that when an intramuscular injection is given you want to ensure that it goes into the muscle and not into a vein. So the proper way to do this is for the person doing the injection to first pull out the syringe (after it's been stuck into the arm) a bit to make sure there's…

If this were the case it would be odd that this is happening a.) in a consistent subset of women 18-38 b.) that it would emerge in a 1-shot regimen rather than a 2-shot regimen, because it would seem more likely that any one individual would experience this more frequently with 2 chances for human error rather than 1

The Pfizer & Moderna 2-shot vaccines use mRNA instead of an adenovirus vector. The AZ vaccine is 2 shot, but also uses a similar adenovirus vector - the bloodclot issue has also been seen in the AZ vaccine which has led to some countries in Europe not allowing it for women under 60.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#556

Post by HWR_14 »

kodah wrote: post #445
jaegerpicker wrote: post #406

7 people out of 7 million dose's. That's why they stopped. My wife and I got the J&J shot on Saturday so I'm directly at risk and I'd take it everytime even if the risk was 10 times what it currently is. I've already seen a bunch of anit-vaxers referring to this in new articles this morning. So let's see, 1 in a million chance that the vaccine will make you sick (only 1 person has died so far, which is terrible but i…

> a virus that has 98% survival rate You know, for all the continual fear mongering about coronavirus last year, the constant reminders of who was most at risk, the hyper importance put on masks and cleanliness, etc it is shocking to see things put this way now.

That's because long term consequences of COVID are real, and worrying just about the worst case (the death rate) is like saying that data leaks are no big deal because only 2% of them lead to the loss of their customer's life savings.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#557

Post by throwawayboise »

calvano915 wrote: post #104
raverbashing wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're blowing the problem out of proportion Deaths by Covid are still much more likely than deaths by the vaccine. Hospitalizations as well, except for the 20-29 cohort https://twitter.com/VikiLovesFACS/status/1379833789334089734

Deaths by COVID implies that those at risk will forego all other options to decrease risk of infection, such as masks, distancing, etc. Those options are opt in the same as a vaccine, though the vaccine is 2x and done. Nonetheless, just because version 1/2 COVID vaccines are good enough for you does not others should just jump on board when other options exist that can vastly reduce risk of infectionand/or death. In…

Also: losing weight, getting more exercise, improving your diet, getting proper amounts of vitamins. All things that will greatly reduce your risk of death from many causes, not just COVID. But requires some effort compared to taking a pill or a shot.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#558

Post by jjk166 »

fspeech wrote: post #381
jjk166 wrote: post #331

6 cases in 7 million doses over 3 months is exactly the rate that CVST would normally be expected at. While that doesn't mean we shouldn't investigate, it does mean there is no reason to be alarmed at this time. > Cerebral venous sinus thrombosis is rare, with an estimated 3-4 cases per million annual incidence in adults. While it may occur in all age groups, it is most common in the third decade. 75% are female. [0]…

There's the question of timing too. It's not clear if the number includes all CVST incidences or only those ocurring in a time window after vaccination. (Update: according to NYT these cases are 1-3 weeks after vaccination, so the background rate is too low to matter here). If there is a strong correlation in timing you can not simply use frequency data to rule out causation.

Of course the cases are shortly after vaccination, the data is symptoms reported shortly after vaccination which might be side effects. You're not going to have anyone who got a clot before the vaccine or long afterwards in the dataset, but those cases still did/will exist. There is no evidence yet of a correlation in timing.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#559

Post by FunnyLookinHat »

lghh wrote: post #498
FunnyLookinHat wrote: post #459

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah and we only just started to roll this vaccine out - so it's fair to say that the risk will likely grow beyond that. You're right that 7 / 7,000,000 are good odds, and most people would likely take them - but it would be unwise to not give people an educated choice between vaccines if there are known risks.

> but it would be unwise to not give people an educated choice between vaccines if there are known risks They are not giving people an educated choice, they are taking that choice away until they deem it okay to give it back. Education is knowing that 7/7,000,000 had a blood clot + the other tests that were done leading up to its release. We know that now. We're educated.

Sorry you are correct - I should have been more specific in my wording.

We should give people an educated choice. With unknown side effects we are not doing that. Thank you for pointing that out.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#560

Post by mikem170 »

graeme wrote: post #67
jonplackett wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's about 1/250,000 risk of clots, but they are treatable. In the UK there's been 19 people die after ~20 million vaccinations.

That’s assuming J and J has same incidence as AZ. J and J so far has had 6 clots for seven million doses. Of course some more may show up in coming days from prior vaccinations.

That's 6 unusual/dangerous cerebral clots per 7 million doses, not all blood clots. There were 50% more clots of any types in the vaccine trials of 20k people [0] (15 blood clots in vaccinated group versus 10 in the placebo group).

[0] https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/13/health/johnson-vaccine-blood-...

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