A (possible) solution to Covid-19 • Hacker News Board

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#551

Post by jl2718 » Sat, Apr 11, 2020, 9:18 PM UTC

danieltillett wrote: post #492

jl2718 wrote: post #348

This will happen naturally. No need for intervention. The longer it goes the better.

This is true, but it might take a few hundred years. I think it would be better if we try and help the process along.

I'm not sure, but you might be greatly underestimating the rate of evolution for these virii. Generally it is ~10^9 faster than eukaryote evolution (https://viralzone.expasy.org/4136) and there are many (10^?) generations that occur in every host. Early selective pressure for fast replication makes it deadly, but late-stage selective pressure is to be transmissible through mild symptoms. The end game is that it becomes part of our DNA.

I might also mention that the virus doesn't really care about us. Mostly it's interested in infecting our bacteria. That's kind of a joke, but in reality, it says everything about how to control it.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#552

Post by danieltillett » Sat, Apr 11, 2020, 9:22 PM UTC

snowwrestler wrote: post #412

perlgeek wrote: post #339

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The main argument here is that finding a mild strain (and having it tested implicitly by virtue of it infecting many humans) could be faster than developing a human-created vaccine. I don't have any credentials in this field, but IMHO we should attack the problem from all possible angles, including the search for a natural, less harmful strain.

He says: > Apart from the time it will take to develop, trial, and mass produce a vaccine (12-18 months), it is unlikely that any vaccine will be practicable. The reason why is immunity to respiratory viruses (like corona) doesn’t last long – 6 months to 2 years. We would have to keep vaccinating everyone in the world every year (or maybe every 6 months if we are unlucky). This just isn’t going to work in the real wo…

The “magical” part is nature has run the experiments we aren’t yet ready to run with vaccines. Time really is an important issue.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#553

Post by danieltillett » Sat, Apr 11, 2020, 9:24 PM UTC

ck2 wrote: post #406

This is why scientists and mathematicians never make it as politicians in the USA You may have the best idea in the world, but your presentation is terrible, the rambling is terrible, the assumption you are the only person to think of this is terrible and the urge to get the attention of someone important to pay for it is terrible. The sad truth is you need to fit your idea into the size of a tweet, write the long ve…

You are welcome to rewrite my post and even claim the idea as your own if you want. Make it as short as a tweet (which I have done by the way) and send it out into the world.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#554

Post by danieltillett » Sat, Apr 11, 2020, 9:25 PM UTC

nickthemagicman wrote: post #297

"We have a choice of taking some small risk now, or face the certainty of a much worse problem later. Time to accept some risk and do something." Agreed 100%. What about simply letting the people who young and healthy or immune go about their lives? Letting the young and healthy get sick and then become immune is essentially using an attenuated human instead of an attenuated virus. Same outcome though. This would bot…

This seems to the Swedish plan. What I have noticed with this plan is that a lot of vulnerable Swedes have died from this plan. I think we can do better.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#555

Post by danieltillett » Sat, Apr 11, 2020, 9:28 PM UTC

ineedasername wrote: post #396

the-pigeon wrote: post #392

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think this is a very simple solution at all. It's really just a different vaccine approach and this isn't the first person to suggest it. It's been talked about online since February if not before. Not to say I don't think it's a viable idea and I do think it needs more visibility. As the author states this has worked for other diseases.

The author proposes it as "quick & cheap" and leaves out nearly all logistical considerations. To my thinking, that is an overly-simple proposal.

Something can be quick and cheap without being easy. The proposal is far from easy.

The post leaves out a lot of technical details that the average non-scientist doesn’t need to know.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#556

Post by annoyingnoob » Sat, Apr 11, 2020, 11:14 PM UTC

danieltillett wrote: post #548

annoyingnoob wrote: post #365

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Still seems like an assumption until its tested/proven. I'd prefer a more evidence based approach, evidence from this virus.

You can only get evidence if you go out and collect the evidence. I am proposing a way we can actually collect this evidence. Saying something won’t work because there is no evidence when you haven’t look for any evidence is not very logical.

Just questioning assumptions, in a healthy skepticism kind of way. I have no expertise here. There is a lot of speculation and general fud surrounding covid-19, seems right to question potential 'solutions' when we are light on facts. To be clear, I never said it wouldn't work, I'm saying that it looks like you assume it will work.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#557

Post by ineedasername » Sun, Apr 12, 2020, 1:17 AM UTC

danieltillett wrote: post #550

ineedasername wrote: post #537

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You address how many viral strains could be obtained, you don't address how many people have to be tested to obtain that many strains. Since you would need to find asymptomatic people, and current testing prioritizes only those with relevant symptoms, you would need to test many, many people to obtain enough asymptomatic occurrences. You do not provide an estimate for that number. Or if my assumption is wrong, then p…

In some countries they are doing a better job of testing the mild/asymptomatic cases (Germany, Singapore, South Korea are all examples). Even the USA these days is detecting plenty of positive mild cases. We can use the the swab samples sitting in the testing facilities to do the genome sequencing. Your response is quite common so I am writing a follow on post mon how this idea can be done in practice.

And to the extent we can rely on info from the US administration, Dr. Fauci commented (with some hedging) that Fall may bring widespread testing of the population at large for antibodies, which could be co-opted for this purpose as well.

I hope your proposal, and others proposing similar steps, win through. We need massively parallel efforts pursued. Not just to solve this current crisis, but to improve our overall global ability to rapidly reply to the next such problem. Best of luck to you.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#558

Post by nikolay » Sun, Apr 12, 2020, 3:16 AM UTC

danieltillett wrote: post #549

nikolay wrote: post #528

I hear a lot of ideas, which ignore the indications from both China and South Korea about re-infection. Nobody for sure knows how long the immunity lasts. Also, people could be asymptomatic/mild-symptom, just because they have a strong immune response, not because the strain is less deadly. How do you quantify who is immunosuppressed and who has a well-functioning immune system?

Yes, but this idea of mine is not one of these ideas.

I read your idea, but it doesn't address the exact points I listed - selecting a "less deadly" strain and having fingers crossed that immunity persists. So far, many have insufficient antibody counts and get reinfected. I just saw a number around 20%.

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#559

Post by AlexCoventry » Sun, Apr 12, 2020, 3:32 AM UTC

danieltillett wrote: post #543

AlexCoventry wrote: post #503

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How could individuals be sure that they're carrying the correct strain, without access to sequencing technology?

A modification of the standard RT-PCR tests can be used to identify if someone has the correct strain. This really is just a matter of making a different set of primers.

So is every coronavirus party going to come with its own set of RT-PCR kits?

Re: A (possible) solution to Covid-19

#560

Post by ekianjo » Sun, Apr 12, 2020, 8:25 AM UTC

danieltillett wrote: post #487

ekianjo wrote: post #368

> Singapore and Japan have recently seen this in action where they eased restrictions and found the disease came back and they had to reintroduce restrictions. Poorly informed, Japan did not even have restrictions in the first place.

Yes they did, just not the same as everyone else.

Closing schools and doing nothing else does not count much in terms of restrictions.