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AI is removing the middle class of software engineering?

blog.florianherrengt.com

541–550 of 658 posts

Re: AI is removing the middle class of software engineering?

#541

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are multiple "photoshop killers" already available, even for free like photopea. I would bet that you can ask AI to make a clone of it. People just haven't done it because there's no need to waste tokens on that.

Then why isn't Photoshop killed?

Marketing? Who knows? I haven't used photoshop a single time ever since I found out about photopea.

Re: AI is removing the middle class of software engineering?

#542
post #515

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>>doctors make mistakes that kill people all the time Yes, but they make a lot FEWER such mistakes than would people who could not pass the exams and maintain a license. The standard is not perfection; the standard is as good as practical and better than if nothing were done. Medical licensing definitely meets both of those criteria. Unless you are arguing that anyone who takes a ten-week "Medical Bootcamp" is ready…

> they make a lot FEWER such mistakes than would people who could not pass the exams and maintain a license. I don’t know if that’s true. More schooling does not mean more trustworthy or careful doctors. And I suspect some negative trait selection. Milton Friedman wrote a PhD dissertation on the topic of medicine that I invite you to take a look at. > than if nothing were done. The alternative is not to invite people…

> The alternative is not to invite people who have no experience to build bridges or perform surgeries.

You state this so confidently, like every person who walks through the door to interview will be 100% honest about their level of experience.

Have you ever interviewed? Nobody _wants_ a software engineer on their team who is awful.

Sometimes they slip through the cracks for a variety of reasons.

Re: AI is removing the middle class of software engineering?

#543
post #35

> bad engineers were always a liability This part of the article hits home for me. With AI, "bad" engineers can now amplify their "bad" engineering x10 across the organization. The most egregious of these cases for me is often long tenured engineers who have lost interest in the craft, creating a dangerous combination of having enough merit to ship but not enough interest to make what they ship _good_. I am still a f…

I kind of think the whole "Learn to Code" push of the 2010s was one of the worst things that happened to our industry. Call me a gatekeeper if you want but, we ended up with a lot of people that just can't do the job. The problem is our industry mostly doesn't have any sort of reasonable mentorship or apprenticeship culture, so we've always left it to the engineers to teach themselves. Sink or swim. The problem is th…

Maybe you weren't around in the 2000 dot com bubble burst era, but the same thing happened then. Companies hired anyone they could because talent was scarce. A friend of mine who was a substitute teacher got a job as a sysadmin, and he was texting me constantly because he had no clue how to do his job, asking me all kinds of questions. That pretty much ended our friendship when I told him I wasn't going to do his job for him.

Re: AI is removing the middle class of software engineering?

#544

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It will become very easy to build most software We keep hearing this, but where is the Photoshop killer written by a gas station attendant? Where is the PayPal alternative written by a retired nurse? Over and over we're told that software is now trivial to write, and Claude is evidently writing some billions of lines of code a day, but where are the results? Where is the vibe coded app toppling the legacy hand-code…

My non technical wife asked ai to brush up the photo for her cv. Ai did that with whatever cli tools were available and what it would write itself. Ai is not a faster horse. It is a phase shift. We won't see a gas station clerk write photoshop because we won't need a photoshop.

> We won't see a gas station clerk write photoshop because we won't need a photoshop.

100% agree. People are looking at the future through the lenses of the current paradigm just like when people from the past imagined the future (our present) in a way which we now find hilarious. Most of the time, the future doesn't bring developments which improve an action in a scalar way (faster, shorter, stronger, etc) but instead fundamentally change the nature of that action (handwritten letter communication vs video calls) or completely override the need for it (telephone boxes vs mobile phones).

Re: AI is removing the middle class of software engineering?

#545

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> A good engineer, with a good model and harness will produce great stuff. A bad engineer with a good model and harness will produce something faster, but it will be worse. A good engineer, without LLM assistance, will still produce great stuff.

Yes, but much more slowly. And if they realize halfway through implementation that there is a better way to do it, but they are under pressure to deliver, they wont have time to rewrite it and will live with the consequences of that decision forever

Speed doesn’t matter.

Re: AI is removing the middle class of software engineering?

#546

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We never had any real body that could certify proficiency Good! > having to resort to leetcode and other such styles of interviewing Such test filter out the obvious frauds.

> Such test filter out the obvious frauds. if you need garbage like leetcode to filter out "obvious frauds" you got a whole lot of problems in your company/team/...

I took an online technical interview recently where there was a check-box they made you click before every section, promising you would not use AI to solve the test for you.

After they rejected me I had to point out that their test is selecting for the cheaters.

Re: AI is removing the middle class of software engineering?

#547
post #545

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, but much more slowly. And if they realize halfway through implementation that there is a better way to do it, but they are under pressure to deliver, they wont have time to rewrite it and will live with the consequences of that decision forever

Speed doesn’t matter.

it does if you are writing the checks, it doesn’t if you cashing the checks

Re: AI is removing the middle class of software engineering?

#548
post #542

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> they make a lot FEWER such mistakes than would people who could not pass the exams and maintain a license. I don’t know if that’s true. More schooling does not mean more trustworthy or careful doctors. And I suspect some negative trait selection. Milton Friedman wrote a PhD dissertation on the topic of medicine that I invite you to take a look at. > than if nothing were done. The alternative is not to invite people…

> The alternative is not to invite people who have no experience to build bridges or perform surgeries. You state this so confidently, like every person who walks through the door to interview will be 100% honest about their level of experience. Have you ever interviewed? Nobody _wants_ a software engineer on their team who is awful. Sometimes they slip through the cracks for a variety of reasons.

Cold call job interviews are primarily for people early in their career to get established in the field. You don’t hire someone that way to lead the Golden Gate Bridge.

How do you think companies hire for key roles like CEOs?

Re: AI is removing the middle class of software engineering?

#549

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They aren't accustomed to working with constraint thinking That's one way to frame it I guess I would frame it as "they have been abused by AGILE and impatient PMs into never actually taking time to do constraint based thinking or design" It is impossible to think about constraints, or really do any proper engineering, if you are constantly "sprinting" Edit: I also don't personally like engineering based on constra…

> "they have been abused by AGILE [...]" That's ironic given that some of the Agile Manifesto signatories are some of the biggest proponents of constraint-based development. While the Principles behind the Agile Manifesto is not prescriptive, I am not certain you could, in practice, even satisfy many of the principles without constraint-based development. > I also don't personally like engineering based on constraint…

> someone who constructs a building by applying judgment, experience, and craftsmanship as they go would be considered an artisan, craftsman, or something to that effect rather than an engineer. That seems closer to the world you like to live in

Yes absolutely. I don't call myself an engineer, I'm a developer. Software Engineer is a title that my jobs give me, but I'm rarely given the time or resources to do any engineering.

It has become very clear to me over the years that I would much rather be an artisan than an engineer though.

Re: AI is removing the middle class of software engineering?

#550

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I kind of think the whole "Learn to Code" push of the 2010s was one of the worst things that happened to our industry. Call me a gatekeeper if you want but, we ended up with a lot of people that just can't do the job. The problem is our industry mostly doesn't have any sort of reasonable mentorship or apprenticeship culture, so we've always left it to the engineers to teach themselves. Sink or swim. The problem is th…

The whole "learn to code" and software bootcamp craze always baffled me. Like what other profession markets themselves as "Hey, our job is so easy that any schmuck off the street can enter the career with 4 months of training." Practically every other job I can think of at a similar salary level has entrance requirements (e.g. grad school admissions exams), extensive and expensive training, a lengthy apprenticeship p…

A large amount of programmers are hired just building crud apps. Display data from a database and write it back with a validation. Etc.

There is very little innovation going on. And most companies do everything they can to stick to standard patterns, technologies etc where all the risk is removed and known in advance.

Often "good" programmers are worse - they over complicate the architecture, go off on tangents, try to solve problems the business didn't ask for either etc.

So bootcamps filled a need.

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