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Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

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541–550 of 1001 posts

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#541

A big mistake here was simply underestimating the scale of Iran. Iran has 90,000,000 people. More than 2x Ukraine. More than 2x Germany. More than 2x Iraq. More than any country in Europe. About 2/3 of Russia. Expecting to win a war on the cheap was a fantasy. Especially since Iran has been fighting Israel for years. On the naval front, Ukraine sunk the Moskva with a few truck-mounted missiles. That finally made it u…

it's not 2x Germany. Germany is ~83.5M.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#542

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem for a would be attacker is that the US still has enough military power to give almost any country on the planet a very bad day every day for as long as the US cares to. Historically, the way to win against the US is to survive long enough for the US to get bored and leave. The last time that happened, it took us 2 decades to get bored.

The problem is they are not would be attackers, they're countries building up domestic defense that US would have to preempt ala Cuban missile crisis, and sustain preemption over entire continent, with each preemption legitimizing rational for more build up. Of course US can try to coerce INF for conventional in Americas, but commoditized conventional precision strike are conventional... and commoditized, it's the ki…

I think you underestimate how much of that 50% is just exports. And how much other plants can be scaled up quickly. And how the US can temporarily nationalize things, and ensure all the output goes domestic. Just a backroom threat of emergency, temporary nationalization, would ensure CEOs give the US priority.

IE, they'd get to retain higher profits.

What I think would really happen, is the rest of the world would suffer and run out of energy. Not the US.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#543
post #206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We could learn from our allies in Ukraine. Give them capital and manufacturing bases in America. That is happening, only with "EU" not "America". Because the EU are Ukraine's allies. https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-to-open-10-weapons-expor... https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-to-open-arms-factory... https://euobserver.com/209049/eu-signs-off-on-e260m-grant-fo... As for the US being Ukrainian allies as com…

I think the majority of Americans are on Ukraine's side but of course the president has other ideas. The UK has some Ukranian drone manufacturing going on https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy0dvjwygk1o

> I think the majority of Americans are on Ukraine's side but of course the president has other ideas.

I think that it's understood that when we use shorthand such as "US is not supporting Ukraine" that it is the respective governments that we are discussing. The point about the "majority of Americans" is true enough (though you might say that the majority of Americans care about the price of gasoline and groceries and little else politically) but it is rather irrelevant if the administration does the opposite.

In other words, "thoughts and prayers from people" is not enough to make you an ally. Money and policy is the real thing.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#544

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If a carrier can launch fields of drones and missiles, then whatever land mass your attacking can launch more, given they obviously have a lot more space. The change in dynamic here isn’t a function of carriers or their abilities. It’s a change in the cost of drones and missiles. The cost of a “good enough” drone and missile is now so low that opponents of the US can simply build the thing faster than the US can buil…

> If a carrier can launch fields of drones and missiles, then whatever land mass your attacking can launch more This is also true of airplanes. The point is you choose where you launch your drones from anywhere in the world. > change in dynamic here isn’t a function of carriers or their abilities. It’s a change in the cost of drones and missiles It's a return to battleship economics. Except instead of direct fire fro…

> This is also true of airplanes. The point is you choose where you launch your drones from anywhere in the world.

Not quite. It is hard to build an airplane, it is easy to build a drone. So if the battle comes to who is going to send more drones, then a big carrier will lose: it doesn't have a factory to build drones.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#545

Very few Americans realize the scale of the defeat that the US military is facing in this war. Loss of CSG capabilities as well as anti missile radars, refueling planes, AWACS and ground bases all over the Middle East means this is the worst damage the US has taken since WW2.

[deleted]

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#546
post #438

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Worst outcome is the US attacks Cuba, Cuba allies with Iran, it turns out that Cuba has been stocking up on Iranian drones, and Cuba becomes a forward base for drone and missile attacks on the southern US. If this happens and Cuba decides to launch drones/missiles against the US homeland, it's not an exaggeration to say that Cuba is flattened and invaded that same afternoon. After 9/11, there's no world in which an…

If Cuba bombed the US, the US would bomb shakes dice Antigua in retaliation.

I read shakes dice as a Latin term and had a good laugh. "Ah, if they bomb us, we will retaliate on Ecuador shakes dice."

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#547
post #438

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Worst outcome is the US attacks Cuba, Cuba allies with Iran, it turns out that Cuba has been stocking up on Iranian drones, and Cuba becomes a forward base for drone and missile attacks on the southern US. If this happens and Cuba decides to launch drones/missiles against the US homeland, it's not an exaggeration to say that Cuba is flattened and invaded that same afternoon. After 9/11, there's no world in which an…

> If this happens and Cuba decides to launch drones/missiles against the US homeland, it's not an exaggeration to say that Cuba is flattened and invaded that same afternoon. Yes that would be a typical US solution. Let's liberate the Cuban people! By flattening them.

Americans sure love their war crimes! Indiscriminately killing civilians is how they've gotten past, present and future terrorist attacks. I can't imagine the parents of the children they keep on killing (or maiming, or otherwise) standing by and watching. People wouldn't necessarily need to wait for their country's army to do something when they've got nothing significant left to lose.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#548
post #536

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The global Shia’s population is even larger than Russia’s population, and more willing to fight the US/Israel. Russia is of course superior to Iran technologically but Iran has the larger support worldwide.

Russia is a buyer of Iranian drone tech. Iran has also done a very good job marketing their maneuvering reentry vehicles in the last couple weeks.

Agreed. Minus the nuclear and air defence, Iran is more advanced than US and Russia in many other weapons capabilities.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#549
post #517

We don’t need to. We already won at least a half dozen times already. We’ll have won a few more times before it’s over in two or three more weeks.

What did we win?

They are sarcastically mocking Trump's nonsensical back-and-forth statements about the war already being won and regime change already being accomplished

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#550

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right re 80 million in Germany. After a bombing campaign, most of the people tend to hate whoever bombed them.

Was it true for Japan and Germany post WWII? Or between European nations after the same said war? On the other hand, until a couple of years ago, Iranians and Israeli never directly exchanged even a bullet between them and yet Iran was dedicated to the destruction of Israel, so YMMV.

Germans were salty about being bombed and Germany destroyed. They were also occupied for years and also victory forces made sure the victory was absolute - no peace agreement but armies everywhere. There were other aspects too - like nazi doing a lot of destruction of the Germany by themselves. Germans back then seen the whole thing as a tragedy for Germany and Germans.

The rebuild phase where allies put a lot of effort and money into rebuilding Germany did a lot to ensure good result there. And you still see fascists being popular in Germany, especially in former easter block. It is just that everyone else is still traumatized by the past, school system make sure everyone knows past and nazi propagation is literally illegal.

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