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How the AI Bubble Bursts

martinvol.pe

541–550 of 557 posts

Re: How the AI Bubble Bursts

#541

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think you get to collect any unemployment if you resign.

Really.

Yes, really. At least in the USA, you only get to collect unemployment if you are laid off -- if you are fired for cause, or leave your job of your own volition, you are not eligible.

Re: How the AI Bubble Bursts

#542

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Really.

Yes, really. At least in the USA, you only get to collect unemployment if you are laid off -- if you are fired for cause, or leave your job of your own volition, you are not eligible.

Do you have a point that you want to make?

Re: How the AI Bubble Bursts

#543
post #530

This is an awful article. I don't know how it reached #1 on HN. Bottom line is that H100 prices are near 3 year highs, A100s are still profitable to run, B200 prices are increasing, no one has enough compute. Google, OpenAI, Anthropic, Meta, AWS, Azure are all compute constrained. Every single one of them said so publicly. Neo clouds are telling customers they're all sold out now and you even have to book compute in…

OpenAI overtaking Microsoft? Seriously? Microsoft has a massively diversified business spanning from gaming and cloud infra to B2B software that the entire world runs on. OpenAI has exactly one product (matrix weights), which is getting heavily commoditized by open-source models every single day. Once a theoretical Llama 4 catches up to GPT-5, an API price war is going to completely nuke their hyper-margins

That one product can reproduce or replace nearly all of Microsoft's services. It's not OpenAI that is going to do it. It's people and other companies wielding OpenAI's model that will do it.

Re: How the AI Bubble Bursts

#544
post #341

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you feel good about YouTube spending money on hosting and video producers spending time/money on content that you're paying nothing for? How is that sustainable?

Frankly? That's Google's (well, Alphabet's, I guess) problem. They're a multibillion-dollar international monopoly with absolutely staggering amounts of money and power, actively engaging in a wide variety of activities directly aimed at making the lives of every normal person on the planet worse so that they can have more power, more control, and more money. Me blocking ads on YouTube not only costs them effectively…

Doesn't your boycott of the ad-free model confirm to them that the only viable business model is ads?

Re: How the AI Bubble Bursts

#545
post #79

This article tries to build upon a lot of half-truths or incorrect facts, like this: > OpenAI is struggling to monetize. They turned to showing ads in ChatGPT, The ads aren’t going into your paid plans (except maybe a highly discounted tier, depending on the market). The ads are a play to offer a free version. Having an ad-supported free tier isn’t new. The discussion about being unprofitable also repeats the reducti…

> The ads aren’t going into your paid plans (except maybe a highly discounted tier, depending on the market). The ads are a play to offer a free version. Having an ad-supported free tier isn’t new. Sounds like it is new for ChatGPT though. That's also how it started with TV and Youtube, first on the free tier then expanding to the paid ones.

I've never had ads in my Youtube Premium

Re: How the AI Bubble Bursts

#546
post #544

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Frankly? That's Google's (well, Alphabet's, I guess) problem. They're a multibillion-dollar international monopoly with absolutely staggering amounts of money and power, actively engaging in a wide variety of activities directly aimed at making the lives of every normal person on the planet worse so that they can have more power, more control, and more money. Me blocking ads on YouTube not only costs them effectively…

Doesn't your boycott of the ad-free model confirm to them that the only viable business model is ads?

I'm not sure where you got the idea that I'm boycotting "the ad-free model".

I'm boycotting them. After all, every cent that goes their way supports surveillance advertising (among other unsavory things).

I have other subscriptions that support ad-free creators.

If they choose to misconstrue my refusal to support them with either money or ad views, that's also their problem. (Also, that's patently never going to happen, because my signal vanishes instantly into the noise.)

Re: How the AI Bubble Bursts

#547
post #540
post #441

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> RAM prices spiked speculatively, and they're going down for the same reason. https://pcpartpicker.com/trends/price/memory/ Note how flat the black lines are. Then note how wide the gray bands are. That makes it very easy to cherry-pick a few examples to present as "supporting evidence" that prices are doing whatever you want to believe they are doing.

FWIW, you're misreading that chart. It shows a wild increase in memory prices, no matter how much you try to cherry pick. An example might help: in July of last year I bought exactly this 2x32 DDR5 kit for $141: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0DSR14511 It's showing $999 now, which seems about median for similarly-spec'd memory on Amazon. The cheapest slot-and-capacity-compatible equivalent I can find is around $570, even…

> FWIW, you're misreading that chart. It shows a wild increase in memory prices

When I say it's flat, I obviously mean the last couple of months. You'd have to be blind not to see last year's runup.

You'd also have to be blind not to see that the charts contradict your claim that "they're going down".

Re: How the AI Bubble Bursts

#548
post #547
post #540

Earlier quoted context omitted.

FWIW, you're misreading that chart. It shows a wild increase in memory prices, no matter how much you try to cherry pick. An example might help: in July of last year I bought exactly this 2x32 DDR5 kit for $141: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0DSR14511 It's showing $999 now, which seems about median for similarly-spec'd memory on Amazon. The cheapest slot-and-capacity-compatible equivalent I can find is around $570, even…

> FWIW, you're misreading that chart. It shows a wild increase in memory prices When I say it's flat, I obviously mean the last couple of months. You'd have to be blind not to see last year's runup. You'd also have to be blind not to see that the charts contradict your claim that "they're going down".

No one claimed that, though. I was responding to a hypothetical. You're nitpicking, basically. Stop it.

Re: How the AI Bubble Bursts

#549

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the gains are real why the limits are so bad? Google can barely serve Anti-gravity.

Isn't that at the moment still a free product? Of course they will not prioritize serving those requests. That tells you nothing.

Oh no. I pay for it, not antigravity, but gemini-cli.

The limits and response times are laughable. Remove branding and you'd think it's served by some hobbyist on a homelab server, not Google

Re: How the AI Bubble Bursts

#550

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> there is a large force on HN that want to deny the value of tokens there is an even larger force on HN that financially _needs_ the value of tokens to be inflated (so much so that bots have overwhelmed the site)

That’s not me. I am simply an engineer who gets a ton of value out of these tools.

That’s exactly what a bot would say ;-)
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