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US economy unexpectedly sheds 92k jobs in February

bbc.com

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Re: US economy unexpectedly sheds 92k jobs in February

#541

Post by mothballed »

xhkkffbf wrote: post #521
mothballed wrote: post #320

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most illegal immigrants could spend the rest of their lives trying to immigrate legally and never make it, so that doesn't seem rational. Being undocumented is their best bet, as long as they don't break the criminal law once they're past the border and they make it 100 miles past the border their odds of being caught are next to nil. ICE is mostly catching people that either turn up in the legal system or are docume…

Uh. Most of us will spend our whole lives trying to earn money but never make it to being billionaires. So are you saying it's rational to disregard the legal system and steal? The irony is rich here. Country X is bad for enforcing its immigration laws. So let's run off to country Y and dutifully follow its immigration laws.

That depends if it's more practical to steal a billion or earn it legally. I suspect the most practical way to get to a billion is to legally steal it, perhaps with some form of regulatory capture or a government franchise granting a monopoly. Whether you think this is right or wrong is immaterial to what the practical approach is.

It is definitely easier to immigrate illegally for a large portion of the world population, and probably most illegal immigrants. Rational actor then would immigrate illegally.

I think this also very much depends on the country. Only a total idiot would try to "legally" immigrate to Argentina as their constitution essentially grants citizenship just for surviving for two years, and meanwhile there is essentially no immigration enforcement and fairly onerous visa process to do it "legally." On the other hand, you'd have to be an idiot to illegally immigrate to China in anything but the most dire circumstances, as they have an Orwellian surveillance apparatus and getting a legal business visa is fairly straightforward particularly in some special economic zones. On the ArgentinaChina scale I would rate America as further towards the Argentina side, albeit with no path to regularization of status for most illegal immigrants.

Having a dogmatic adherance to the law leads to irrational actions. But also having a dogmatic disdain for the law also leads to irrational actions. Everything has to be considered in context. In the context of the USA you mostly have to be an idiot to try and immigrate legally if you are low skilled poor person from a 3rd world country with no connections. In the context of an educated American going to Europe, the rational choice is probably to immigrate legally.

From this lenses I don't really see any logical inconsistency in the fact the same person might pick illegal on one path and legal for another. Although yes if they are leaving the US because they hate immigration controls and dogmatically following immigration controls overseas in someplace like Argentina where it doesn't even make sense to do so, then they are definitely hypocrites.

Re: US economy unexpectedly sheds 92k jobs in February

#542

Post by bitcurious »

Al-Khwarizmi wrote: post #120
nemo44x wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have some Euro friends that went to Dubai instead because the USA is “too dangerous” right now. I wish them safe passage back, but yeesh talk about irrational perspective.

I'm not a big fan of Dubai, but it used to be a really safe travel destination, at least for male travelers. A month or two ago there was no reason to assume it would be otherwise. BTW, the irony is that they decided not to go to the US, but they are victims of the danger caused by the US anyway.

I enjoy Dubai, but it’s is part of a state where showing a stranger the middle finger is punishable with jail and deportation, nevermind an expat criticism the emirs. It’s pretty telling to consider that safe but to be afraid of showing your passport to CBP.

Re: US economy unexpectedly sheds 92k jobs in February

#543

Post by Mkengin »

srean wrote: post #460
nerdsniper wrote: post #254

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The latest iPhone model in lockdown mode would be super resistant. Lockdown mode is specifically engineered to protect against Cellebrite / Pegasus-level threats. However, if you’re a noncitizen you might be refused entry, and if you are a citizen you might never see that phone again. The phone will be stored for years until/if Cellebrite finds a vulnerability in that iPhone model, and then it will be searched. Also…

Very interesting. Are there any technical hindrances that prevent Android being the same ?

I don't think so, I use GrapheneOS and I think I can't even use the USB-C port for anything other than charging (which should be configurable).

Re: US economy unexpectedly sheds 92k jobs in February

#544

Post by blurbleblurble »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #518
blurbleblurble wrote: post #494

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your head's in the sand. Where I live we have bounty hunters kidnapping people into unmarked vans. For six months or more now. Would visitors likely be safe? Sure, but not necessarily and I can't blame people for being cautious and there's so much unpredictability around it, even for those of us who are familiar.

> I can't blame people for being cautious and there's so much unpredictability around it I can. Again, this is like refusing to visit CDMX because you heard about gang violence or avoiding Sicily because there is crime. Those singular events aren’t false. But they don’t make up the majority of the context. Someone refusing to travel because of these low-probability events (note: because of fear of them, not out of pr…

It really isn't like that though. On top of the rogue paramilitaries with arrest quotas for getting their menial bonuses, there are multiple cases now where _tourists_ have been detained for weeks or more, even those with valid visas, arbitrarily. Multiple governments are cautioning people around travel to the US, and people from many countries are being outright banned from entering. Look at this map: https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/IN12631. Travel is already stressful enough without a rogue xenophobic force at the helm.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/feb/21/karen-newton...

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/us-travel-detentions-1.7489525

Re: US economy unexpectedly sheds 92k jobs in February

#545

Post by gruez »

cheesecompiler wrote: post #29
testfrequency wrote: post #4

I do not see the tourism industry mentioned here but I have to imagine that is a huge loss right now. Most of the world is not visiting the US right now which means projects and planning that was made in anticipation for summer has probably been halted or heavily reduced.

There is a significant majority of people in Canada who not only vocally decided to not go to US but discourage their friends from doing so too. People have judged me for driving through the states.

While the effect was real, arrival numbers mostly recovered since august last year: https://www.economist.com/content-assets/images/20250830_WOT...

Re: US economy unexpectedly sheds 92k jobs in February

#546

Post by kasey_junk »

dehrmann wrote: post #516
kasey_junk wrote: post #488

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Macro demographics. Boomers are retiring and requiring healthcare in historic numbers.

That doesn't show up as unemployment, though. It might mean the economy is getting worse faster than that graph, but boomers retiring is dampening the increase.

Boomers leaving (and being replaced) shows up in the jobs number, but not the unemployment number.

So job “growth” is overstated because much of that growth is macro demographic replacement.

But them being out of the workforce entirely shows up in the looking for work numbers decreasing. Therefore their leaving is accentuating 1 and dampening the other.

So more non-producers, who require non-productive health care means that lower unemployment doesn’t feel like a good economy. Thus their leaving healthy post covid number but other measures seeming bad.

Re: US economy unexpectedly sheds 92k jobs in February

#547

Post by bdangubic »

bitcurious wrote: post #542
Al-Khwarizmi wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not a big fan of Dubai, but it used to be a really safe travel destination, at least for male travelers. A month or two ago there was no reason to assume it would be otherwise. BTW, the irony is that they decided not to go to the US, but they are victims of the danger caused by the US anyway.

I enjoy Dubai, but it’s is part of a state where showing a stranger the middle finger is punishable with jail and deportation, nevermind an expat criticism the emirs. It’s pretty telling to consider that safe but to be afraid of showing your passport to CBP.

All we gotta do is show passport to the CBP and that's it, we get in? All people avoiding travel to the USA are doing so because they have a bad photo in their passport? :)

Re: US economy unexpectedly sheds 92k jobs in February

#548

Post by bodiekane »

cucumber3732842 wrote: post #510
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #431

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Healthcare was carrying the economy. Any commentary on why that’s failing?

>Healthcare was carrying the economy. Any commentary on why that’s failing? The fact that it's such big part of the economy is a really bad thing because it's "overhead" or "broken windows" for the most part. And it's falling because people are stretched thin so they're not going to the engaging healthcare unless they truly NEED it. Even if you have "great" insurance contacting that system still costs you money if no…

I don't think the "broken windows" metaphor is very accurate for healthcare. A lot of healthcare spending is along a gradient of elective vs necessary and some continuum of quality of life improvements.

For instance, I could live with allergies, and all my ancestors just had to, but I have the option to spend money on allergy testing services, medicines, treatments, etc. People spend money on in-home professional care to get better treatment than going alone or relying on family, or spend money on care facilities as appropriate for their circumstances.

We have medicines for depression, anxiety, restless leg syndrome, ADHD, birth control, acne, weight loss, low testosterone, ED, poor sleep, eczema, psoriasis and a million other issues which people in the past, or people in developing countries today, simply had to live with that we have the privilege of having access to treatments for to improve our quality of life.

I know people who are affluent and outwardly "healthy" who spend thousands of dollars per year in the "healthcare" category that's entirely discretionary, but lets them keep looking young and playing tennis at 70 years old, or helps them juggle work, family and fitness at 40.

Re: US economy unexpectedly sheds 92k jobs in February

#549

Post by bonsai_spool »

rootusrootus wrote: post #513
h2zizzle wrote: post #481

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Seems like something that shouldn't be left up to a consumer market.

What percentage of the market actually pays it this way? IIRC, somewhere north of a third of Americans are already on a form of single payer healthcare. Most of the remainder are getting it through their job, subsidized to varying degrees. The fraction of the population that actually pays the full premiums out of their own pocket is pretty limited, AFAIK.

> What percentage of the market actually pays it this way?

The only way this can make sense mathematically is if you're including children, seniors, and/or the ill—populations who are unable to work. What is your reference?

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