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Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is killed in Israeli strike, ending 36-year rule

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Re: Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is killed in Israeli strike, ending 36-year rule

#541

I have no sympathy for Khamenei, but, if that is allowed we should not be surprised if Denmark prime minister is next?

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Typically jihadist denotes a militant sunni-salafist tendency, who are even more hateful against shia than non-believers.

This is reflected in e.g. Aaron Y. Zelin separating his surveilling of islamic militancy respectively into a jihadology and a muqawamology web site.

It is common for people in the occident to project the ideas they have about sunni-salafists onto the islamic republic, even though it is absurd. Same goes for the view that Khamenei supposedly were the one trying to achieve nuclear weapons, while his office has been the main blocker for this and secular nuclear researchers and political analysts in Iran has been the main proponents.

A year ago Ali Larijani said that if Iran was attacked they'd have no choice but to build deterrence through nuclear weapons, a proposal the US and Israel apparently thought was jolly good and since have crashed diplomatic alternatives to by the crime of aggression, not once but twice. The second time they also removed Khamenei, to really rub it in that they'd prefer for their allies in the region to have yet another nuclear armed neighbour.

Re: Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is killed in Israeli strike, ending 36-year rule

#542

The Iranian diaspora around the world is celebrating. Here's the scene in Berlin: https://youtu.be/NSbx_0mtk80?si=MJ_Bfvx8gVd1P1mm They've waited a very long time for this moment!

People should never treat the diaspora as representative of any population other than the diaspora.

This issue comes up with Cuba a lot. A lot of Cuban-Americans hate Castro. Why? Because they were the upper-middle class to wealthy under Batista.

This history becomes almost comically distorted. Senator Ted Cruz said that he hates communists because his father was tortured by... Batista [1].

So let me give you an example of the Iranian/Persian diaspora. In 2024 in particular we had a lot of protests against Israel's genocide in Gaza and American support for it. Many were on college campuses. One was on UCLA.

In April 2024, masked counterprotesters attacked the protesters and the police stood idly by and let it happen. The police later then used this violence as a reason to crack down on the protesters. So who were these counter-protesters? Persian diaspora [2].

Anyone celebrating this knows nothing about history and honestly nothing about Iran.

First, Khamenei isn't a singular autocrat like Basheer al-Asaad or Saddam Hussein. No decapitation strike is going to result in regime change. Did you notice the Iranian response change after Khamenei's death? No. Because there isn't one. The religious governmental institutions still exist. A temporary successor was appointed. The IRGC continues as is. Iran is a functioning state that will continue without its Supreme Leader.

Second, let's just say that the Iranian government does fall apart. That's going to be incredibly bad for Iranians as you'll either get a fail-state like Libya, Syria or Somalia (which is what Israel wants) or you'll simply get an American puppet.

Do you know who the American puppet in Syria is? Ahmed al-Sharaa, formerly an al-Qaeda leader. Do you think that's going to end well? Saddam Hussein was an American puppet. Until he wasn't. The former Shah. Augusto Pinochet. That's who you get when the US installs a puppet regime.

Maybe you think Iran will get a functioning democracy. They had one until the US overthrew it in 1953.

Do you really think the US cares about Iranians? Like at all? What exactly is being celebrated here?

[1]: https://www.youtube.com/shorts/I2AdbLDVb0Q

[2]: https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/16/us/ucla-student-protests-coun...

Re: Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is killed in Israeli strike, ending 36-year rule

#543

Earlier quoted context omitted.

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>> Millions of muslims around the world viewed the Iranian theocracy as the only power in the world fighting for Islam. They are devastated. > They are devastated but they are were totally quiet on the unarmed thirty thousands+ protesters the islamist iranian regime killed in a matter of days a few weeks ago. One person's protestor is another's insurrectionist. See also the folks on January 6: (now-pardoned) patriots…

You should read up on “false equivalence”…

Re: Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is killed in Israeli strike, ending 36-year rule

#544
post #542

The Iranian diaspora around the world is celebrating. Here's the scene in Berlin: https://youtu.be/NSbx_0mtk80?si=MJ_Bfvx8gVd1P1mm They've waited a very long time for this moment!

People should never treat the diaspora as representative of any population other than the diaspora. This issue comes up with Cuba a lot. A lot of Cuban-Americans hate Castro. Why? Because they were the upper-middle class to wealthy under Batista. This history becomes almost comically distorted. Senator Ted Cruz said that he hates communists because his father was tortured by... Batista [1]. So let me give you an exam…

"That's going to be incredibly bad for Iranians as you'll either get a fail-state like Libya, Syria or Somalia (which is what Israel wants) or you'll simply get an American puppet."

Iran is one of the oldest continuing political units in the world, clocking over 2500 years as an organized state.

I think you seriously underestimate the capabilities and know-how of the Iranians by expecting them to behave the same way as pre-state tribal polities like Somalia.

Re: Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is killed in Israeli strike, ending 36-year rule

#545

I work with and know a lot of Shia (non-Iranian) Muslims and listening to them talk about this assassination I'm convinced that the likelihood of attempted terror attacks against the US has increased significantly. The non-Iranian part is key. Millions of muslims around the world viewed the Iranian theocracy as the only power in the world fighting for Islam. They are devastated.

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Yes they were silent about the Iranian regime's tyranny. Yes they are hypocrites.

So what?

It doesn't matter whether it suits you nor I. You calling them out has zero effect other than making you feel righteous. They don't hear you and even if they did they do not care a whit what you think.

They believe, with utter conviction, that martyrdom in service of Islam will be rewarded in the "hereafter". Their holy book tells them this explicitly. And there are millions of them.

Hence my comment.

Re: Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is killed in Israeli strike, ending 36-year rule

#546
post #509

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Weirdly Europe and even Canada seem to be completely onboard with all this..

Also weirdly they only came out in support once they saw that the operation was largely successful. It's almost like they prefer to ride on the coattails the same as they always have. They don't want to risk their politics.

> Also weirdly they only came out in support once they saw that the operation was largely successful

This is revisionist.

First, when has a bombing run been ‘unsuccessful’ in the modern era? The assassination wasn’t confirmed until after these statements had come out.

Second, these statements were released essentially as soon as these folks woke up.

The rest of the world should be forgiven for taking POTUS at his word when he said he was going to continue negotiations.

Re: Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is killed in Israeli strike, ending 36-year rule

#547

The Iranian diaspora around the world is celebrating. Here's the scene in Berlin: https://youtu.be/NSbx_0mtk80?si=MJ_Bfvx8gVd1P1mm They've waited a very long time for this moment!

Expatriates behaviors are often misleading and don't represent the general feeling inside the country. I'm not saying that Iranian loved Khamenei, but maybe they are not that happy that he is dead because of other reasons. Instability for instance.

Not really, expats help shape the narrative and bring external help to make their views the reality.

Re: Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is killed in Israeli strike, ending 36-year rule

#548

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Weirdly Europe and even Canada seem to be completely onboard with all this..

Having a brutal dictatorial regime that finances international terrorists on your doorstep does that to you.

Yes, all those radical Iranian-backed terrorists on Canada and France's doorsteps have radicalized them.

Re: Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is killed in Israeli strike, ending 36-year rule

#549

I work with and know a lot of Shia (non-Iranian) Muslims and listening to them talk about this assassination I'm convinced that the likelihood of attempted terror attacks against the US has increased significantly. The non-Iranian part is key. Millions of muslims around the world viewed the Iranian theocracy as the only power in the world fighting for Islam. They are devastated.

I was just saying this to someone this morning. Iran’s theocracy was the only one that has withstood the Middle East political wars in Jordan, Syria, Afghanistan, etc. To rephrase it… if The Middle East was the UK, Iran would be British. If the Middle East was the US. Iran would be California.

Jordan political system is much older than Iran, as well as the Saudis and others. Iran theocracy is a new phenomena in the Middle East, ushering the implementation era of political Islam, later continued by ISIS, Hamas and the milder Qatar and current Turkey

Re: Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is killed in Israeli strike, ending 36-year rule

#550
post #470

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the point being made is that there's wider fallout than just what's directly affected. If you go to Syria and ask Syrians how they feel about the affects on the wider region they might not so readily agree. Or even ask Iraqis in the border region who lived through ISIS rule.

I got the point. I’m challenging the causal chain. I don’t think anyone would agree that the crusades in the Middle Ages caused the current state of the Middle East. There is no way you can prove one or the other side. We can’t do controlled experiments with other worlds. So it’s all guesswork. That’s why I’m challenging. I think that things are much less causally connected as people want to believe.

> I don’t think anyone would agree that the crusades in the Middle Ages caused the current state of the Middle East.

I think the Crusades have not yet ended…

And it is not clear that fewer people died following the US interventions than would have had Iraq been left to its own.

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