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Statement from Jerome Powell

federalreserve.gov

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Re: Statement from Jerome Powell

#541

Post by piva00 »

this_user wrote: post #202
Waterluvian wrote: post #89

Remember early in his first term when he tested waters but the governmental system pushed back and kept him in check? It feels like an out of body experience to look at this and contemplate how much he’s changed about how the U.S. government conducts itself.

In his first term, he probably didn't yet understand how much power the office truly holds and how to wield it and just how far you can go with that. Because the main restriction on all of that power has always been convention rather than any actually robust guard rails. But no one, not even someone like Nixon, has ever dared to truly test that out.

He still doesn't understand, I think anyone that sticks all of this to Trump is playing exactly in the hands of the powers behind him: The Heritage Foundation, Federalist Society, billionaires like the Koch, Stephen Miller, Bannon, so on and so forth, they would love to have Trump as the scapegoat for all of this.

Trump is not a smart person, he doesn't know much aside from what he's been told, and the people playing him to further their agendas would love more than anything to be kept in the shadows in case it all comes crumbling down to just pin it all on Trump, the moron.

Re: Statement from Jerome Powell

#542

Post by croon »

rhubarbtree wrote: post #514
JeremyNT wrote: post #375

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There is ample ability to change events, but people must believe they can act and act together, as they have for centuries of democracy and for all human history. This is the political will of a plurality of American voters. They certainly can't claim they didn't know what they would get, and they seem unconcerned by any of these actions that many of us find terrifying. It is difficult to see how we can democracy o…

This is disingenuous and a way to rationalise your feelings by blaming trump voters. Firstly, it’s a two party state and choice is limited. People vote for the least worst option, or for a candidate that shares at least some of their values. Second, many people did not vote. Third, approval ratings show that many trump voters do not approve of his actions. Fourth, where did “annex Greenland, abduct Maduro, remove ind…

These are all before the 2024 election:

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-could-try-buy-greenlan...

https://www.wired.com/story/trump-cia-venezuela-maduro-regim...

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/how-trumps-wish-for-more-f...

https://www.hks.harvard.edu/centers/mrcbg/publications/end-f...

Trump voters are either willfully ignorant or gleefully supportive. Maybe not the first time, but definitely the second and third time. There no longer exists other excuses.

Re: Statement from Jerome Powell

#543

Post by JumpinJack_Cash »

rootusrootus wrote: post #418
throw0101c wrote: post #401

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is what Wolff, who has written 3-4 biographical books on Trump, thinks: * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Wolff_(journalist) He used the term suis generic in a (PBS?) interview to describe Trump: * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sui_generis

It may be that I'm a naive optimist, but I agree with him. When I look at who the hard core believers envision as the next torch-bearer, none of them have what it takes. Not Vance, not Rubio (Rubio! Suddenly he is 'strong'?? When was that ever a widely held opinion??), not the Trump kids. Trump has a way of defying political gravity and repeatedly escaping the consequences that take down every other politician. In th…

> > not the Trump kids. Trump has a way of defying political gravity and repeatedly escaping the consequences that take down every other politician

Look at Trump's interviews from the 80s and 90s.

He was not always like this.

If he learned his ways, others also can

Re: Statement from Jerome Powell

#544

Post by olalonde »

lamontcg wrote: post #114
olalonde wrote: post #95

As a side note, is there a compelling reason why interest rates aren't set algorithmically? I assume human intuition isn't really a factor in setting them. This would eliminate concerns about political motivation.

Economic models are complex and far from perfect, and we're still waiting for Hari Seldon's psychohistory models to be created to tie together macroeconomics and macropsychology.

Are you saying that human intuition does play a role? I assumed it was all pretty mathematic and deterministic already.

Re: Statement from Jerome Powell

#545

Post by JumpinJack_Cash »

zarzavat wrote: post #510
mikeyouse wrote: post #267

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The first term laid a lot of the groundwork for this term as well - had he not appointed three SC Justices, things would look very different. This court has said basically that all executive actions including pretextual investigations via the DOJ are legal and that there is no such thing as agency independence, even when written into the laws that created the agencies.

Yes, too much emphasis is put on Trump. He's just the President. This crisis has been 80 years in the making. It's the Supreme Court that has expanded the powers of the President, and previously of the Federal government, far beyond what was ever intended. By allowing the federal government to dominate the states, the Supreme Court created a position of unrivalled power. Trump may be an evil narcissist by the standar…

Absolutely! The U.S. is defacto a Russia or China with a lower 'government expenditure/GDP ratio'

But that is not that much of a consolation if the government is allowed to pick winners and losers for kleptocracy or there is strong central planning and oversight on what should independent institutions

Re: Statement from Jerome Powell

#546

Post by olalonde »

martinald wrote: post #105
olalonde wrote: post #95

As a side note, is there a compelling reason why interest rates aren't set algorithmically? I assume human intuition isn't really a factor in setting them. This would eliminate concerns about political motivation.

But who sets the algorithm? Whichever department of branch of govt was in charge of that would become have the enormous power, and political motivation would then fall to that. Equally the same for data that goes into the algorithm - if you can control that you control interest rates.

Agreed, but we're already living that reality. Moving to an algorithmic approach provides a layer of transparency that makes manipulation easier to detect.

Re: Statement from Jerome Powell

#547

Post by JumpinJack_Cash »

f33d5173 wrote: post #420
altmanaltman wrote: post #358

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder how the stock market would look if AI wasn't such a big driving factor. Or how it would look if there was no sledge hammer. Insane times.

My working theory is that the ai bubble is caused by trump. People are too uncertain to want to invest in most industries, but they have to put their money somewhere, so they put it in ai stocks. Since the supreme court is likely to rule trump's tariffs illegal in a week or so, this may lead to a stock market crash. As people reallocate their portfolios, they will sell their ai stocks, which will pop the bubble and c…

I don't think so.

Remember the first time you wanted to buy a stock.

You used a product or a service that you liked immensely, realized it had a stock and wanted to be involved.

1 billion people are using AI, not dramatically changing their lives yet of course but for sure they go 'wow incredible I want to be part of this' when they make a video with Sora or generate a pamphlet without having to work

Re: Statement from Jerome Powell

#548

Post by JumpinJack_Cash »

pixelatedindex wrote: post #218
derangedHorse wrote: post #144

I dislike the existence of the Fed, but I dislike the idea of the executive branch being in control of monetary policy even more. I'll be tuning in to see how the case progresses.

Do you have an alternative to the Fed? Likes and dislikes has nothing to do with it. Or let me ask you another way — why do you dislike the Fed?

> > why do you dislike the Fed?

It prevents banks from doing their job, so does the existence of t-bills.

They hinder the economy by suppressing creativity and ingenuity . Every time a person becomes an investor instead of an inventor the economy and prosperity of a nation falthers.

You just don't see it in stats because stats can't measure against hypotheticals but that doesn't mean it isn't true

Re: Statement from Jerome Powell

#549

Post by scoofy »

laidoffamazon wrote: post #94

I’m aghast but numb to this now. The biggest question for me now is how the usual defenders of this lawless administration will try to defend this or both sides it.

This will continue until people actually get hurt. Trump is exactly what decadence looks like: people willing to vote for "their team" against any better judgement because nothing really every happens to hurt them.

Re: Statement from Jerome Powell

#550

Post by oliwarner »

neom wrote: post #54

So I'm sitting here as a Canadian wondering what the American people are going to do? I understand a lot of what the President of The United States says - I even agree with some of it, the problem is I don't feel like we're engaging with the American people anymore. I really wonder where you guys are headed and what it means for the rest of us, I spent 15 years in the states, built a public company there, I really li…

39% of the country still approves of him and his fractal waterfall of disaster. So many people, and so many now gifted power and immunity to swing it at dissenting voices. That's a lot of inertia.

In the "First They Came" poem, we're already at white Christian mothers, and it's not moving the needle. I'm not sure why there isn't more talk of succession on the coasts but at this pace, it feels inevitable.

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