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Is it a bubble?

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Re: Is it a bubble?

#541

Post by giardini »

ProllyInfamous wrote: post #479
sethammons wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At $WORK, we have a bot that integrates with Slack that sets up minor PRs. Adjusting tf, updating endpoints, adding simple handlers. It does pretty well. Also in a case of just prose to code, Claude wrote up a concurrent data migration utility in Go. When I reviewed it, it wasn't managing goroutines or waitgroups well, and the whole thing was a buggy mess and could not be gracefully killed. I would have written it fa…

This is a great response, even for a blue collar worker understanding none of its complexities (I have no code creation abilities, whatsoever — I can adjust parameters, and that's about it... I am a hardware guy ). My layperson anecdote about LLM coding is that using Perplexity is the first time I've ever had the confidence (artificial, or not) to actually try to accomplish something novel with software/coding. Witho…

As a software guy going way back, this post may be the death knell of software development as I've known it. I have never seen a good hardware guy who could code his way out of a paper bag. If hardware guys succeed in developing software with LLM coding, then it's time to abandon ship (reaches for life preserver pension).

Re: Is it a bubble?

#542

Post by conradev »

lm28469 wrote: post #349
conradev wrote: post #323

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I used to hand roll the assembly, but now I delegate that work to my agent, clang. I occasionally override clang or give it hints, but it usually gets it right most of the time. clang doesn't "understand" the hints because it doesn't "understand" anything, but it knows what to do with them! Just like codex.

Given an input clang will always give the same output, not quite the same for llms. Also nobody ever claimed compilers were intelligent or that they "understood" things

The determinism depends on the architecture of the model!

Symbolica is working on more deterministic/quicker models: https://www.symbolica.ai

I also wish it was that easy, but compiler determinism is hard, too: https://reproducible-builds.org

Re: Is it a bubble?

#543

Post by lynx97 »

roenxi wrote: post #451
lynx97 wrote: post #446

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know why you picked that particular example to make your point. I do notice though that you framed it in a pretty sexist way. You realize the dark figure of men getting abused by their wives is higher then the media reports? In any case, my point is, violence in relationships happens both ways. Why that confirms that humans are in general not capable of being empathy is beyond me. My point still stands. You c…

> You realize the dark figure of men getting abused by their wives is higher then the media reports? In any case, my point is, violence in relationships happens both ways. Yes. That is in fact pretty much exactly what I'm arguing. People are often horrible. > BUT, you definitely can make sure you surround yourself with decent people... People generally can't. Otherwise there'd be a bunch more noticeable social strati…

An AI (LLM) neither focuses on words nor on ideas. What you are promoting is plain escapism, which sounds rather unhealthy to me. To each their own. But really, get some help. There are ways, many ways, to deal with a depression, other then waiting for a digital god.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#544

Post by oxag3n »

roenxi wrote: post #404
obruchez wrote: post #362

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's difficult to know what people really believe, especially after only a few minutes of discussion, but I would say most people I talk to don't believe AGI is even possible. And they probably think their life won't be changed much by LLMs, AI, etc.

I haven't heard a good argument for why AGI isn't already here. It has average humans beat and seems generally to be better-than-novice in any given field that requires intelligence. They play Go, they write music, they've read Shakespeare, they are better at empathy and conversation than most. What more are we asking AI to do? And can a normal human do it?

> What more are we asking AI to do? And can a normal human do it?

Simple - go through an on-boarding training, chat to your new colleagues, start producing value.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#545

Post by thenaturalist »

popoflojo wrote: post #425
edhelas wrote: post #402

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why can't you just prompt a way to AGI without spending all that money?

Honestly this is the best response. If the AI was actually so great, it could create better AI, and the future would already be here

They are talking to each other already.

Whether for betterment remains to be seen.

2 Opus 4 talking directly to each other: https://www.iflscience.com/the-spiritual-bliss-attractor-som...

"Learning" passing between derivatives of the same base models: https://alignment.anthropic.com/2025/subliminal-learning/

Re: Is it a bubble?

#546

Post by ProllyInfamous »

mrwrong wrote: post #485
ProllyInfamous wrote: post #479

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a great response, even for a blue collar worker understanding none of its complexities (I have no code creation abilities, whatsoever — I can adjust parameters, and that's about it... I am a hardware guy ). My layperson anecdote about LLM coding is that using Perplexity is the first time I've ever had the confidence (artificial, or not) to actually try to accomplish something novel with software/coding. Witho…

what really comes through in this description is a fear of judgement from other people, which I think is extremely relatable for anyone who's ever posted a question on stack overflow. I don't think it's a coincidence that the popularity of these tools is coinciding with a general atmosphere of low trust and social cohesion in the US and other societies this last decade

On her deathbed, years ago, my beloved mother lamented that she often felt mentally bullied by her three brilliant sons [0], even decades into our adulthoods; embarassed, she would censor her own knowledge-seeking from the people she trusted most [2].

She didn't live long enough to use ChatGPT [1] (she would have been flabbergasted at its ability to understand people/situations), but even with her "normal" intelligence she would have been a master to its perceptions/trainings.

[0] "Beyond just teasing."

[1] We did briefly wordplay with GPT-2 right before she died via thisworddoesnotexist.com exchanges, but nothing conversive.

[2] Relavent example, to the best of my understanding of hers: I would never ask my brilliant engineer programmer hardwarebro for coding help on any personal project, never. Just as I don't ask lawyerbro for personal legal advice.

----

About a year later (~2023), my dentist friend experienced a sudden life change (wife sick @35); in his grieving/soul-seeking, I recommended that he share some of his mental chaos with an LLM, even just if to role-play as his sick family member. Dr. Friend later thanked me for recommending the resource — particularly "the entire lack of any judgments" — and shared his own brilliant discoveries using creative prompt structuring.

----

Particularly as a big dude, it's nice to not always have to be the tough guy, to even admit weakness. Unfortunately I think the overall societal benefits of generative AI are going to increase anti-social behaviour, but it's nice to have a friendly apprentice that knows something about almost everything... any time... any reason.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#547

Post by AndrewKemendo »

Zafira wrote: post #368
AndrewKemendo wrote: post #333

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I just did a review and 16% of our committed production code was generated by an LLM. Almost 80% of our code comments are LLM This is mission critical robotics software

What is the approach here? LLM generated; human validated?

Yes

Re: Is it a bubble?

#548

Post by ProllyInfamous »

giardini wrote: post #541
ProllyInfamous wrote: post #479

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a great response, even for a blue collar worker understanding none of its complexities (I have no code creation abilities, whatsoever — I can adjust parameters, and that's about it... I am a hardware guy ). My layperson anecdote about LLM coding is that using Perplexity is the first time I've ever had the confidence (artificial, or not) to actually try to accomplish something novel with software/coding. Witho…

As a software guy going way back, this post may be the death knell of software development as I've known it. I have never seen a good hardware guy who could code his way out of a paper bag. If hardware guys succeed in developing software with LLM coding, then it's time to abandon ship (reaches for life preserver pension).

I'm'bout'ta flash your PLC Ladder Logic firmwares, friend.

j/k don't worry I'm an idiot — but somebody else WILL.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#549

Post by roncesvalles »

>Coding, which we called “computer programming” 60 years ago, is the canary in the coal mine in terms of the impact of AI. In many advanced software teams, developers no longer write the code; they type in what they want, and AI systems generate the code for them. Coding performed by AI is at a world-class level, something that wasn’t so just a year ago. According to my guide here, “There is no speculation about whether or not human replacement will take place in that vertical.”

This right here is the pinpoint root cause of the speculative bubble. Although many people believe this to be true, it simply isn't.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#550

Post by kkapelon »

whimsicalism wrote: post #540
kkapelon wrote: post #532

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> As long as you are good at reviewing code, spec-ing carefully, and make atomic changes - why would you not be using this basically all the time? This implies that you are an expert/seasoned programmer. And not everybody is an expert on this industry (especially the reviewing code part).

I thought this was a forum for seasoned engineers? But yes, I agree that this widens the skill gap and makes the on-ramp steeper.

What happens if you work in a team?

If a team has one senior/seasoned person and 3 juniors will adopting ai be a total positive move? Or the senior person will just become the bottleneck for the junior devs?

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