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Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden

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Re: Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden

#541

Post by ahf8Aithaex7Nai »

Covenant0028 wrote: post #310
ahf8Aithaex7Nai wrote: post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Perhaps you have missed the essential point. Who drives the cars? It's not the horses, is it? And a chess computer is just as unlikely to start a game of chess on its own as a horse is to put on its harness and pull a plow across a field. I'm not entirely sure what impact all this will have on the job market, but your comparisons are flawed.

In the case of horses and cars, you need the same number of people to drive both (exactly one per vehicle). In the case of AI and automation, the entire economic bet is that agents will be able to replace X humans with Y humans. Ideally for employers Y=0, but they'll settle for Y People seem to think this discussion is a binary where either agents replace everybody or they don't. It's not that simple. In aggregate, w…

Yes, I understand that it's about saving on labor costs. Depending on how successful this is, it could lead to major changes in the labor market in economies where skilled workers have been doing quite well up to now.

Re: Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden

#542

Post by heavyset_go »

netsharc wrote: post #360
maciejzj wrote: post #353

I may have developed some kind of paranoia reading HN recently, but the AI atmosphere is absolutely nuts to me. Have you ever thought that you would see a chart showing how population of horses was decimated by the mass introduction of efficient engines accompanied by an implication that there is a parallel to human population? And the article is not written in any kind of cautionary humanitarian approach, but rather…

I think, like the Bill Gates haters who interpret him talking about reducing the rate of birth in Africa as wanting to kill Africans, you're interpreting it wrong. The graph says horse ownership per person. People probably stopped buying horses, they let theirs retire (well, to be honest, probably also sent to the glue factory), and when they stopped buying new horses, horse breeding programs slowed down.

Horses are pretty and won't try to kill you for "your" food.

Re: Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden

#543

Post by heavyset_go »

abixb wrote: post #443
netsharc wrote: post #360

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think, like the Bill Gates haters who interpret him talking about reducing the rate of birth in Africa as wanting to kill Africans, you're interpreting it wrong. The graph says horse ownership per person. People probably stopped buying horses, they let theirs retire (well, to be honest, probably also sent to the glue factory), and when they stopped buying new horses, horse breeding programs slowed down.

One could argue that the quality of life per horse went up, even if the total number of horses went down. Lots more horses now get raised in farms and are trained to participate in events like dressage and other equestrian sports.

Imagine it now, your future descendants existing solely to be part of some rich kid's harem.

Re: Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden

#544

Post by Slava_Propanei »

UncleMeat wrote: post #388
maciejzj wrote: post #353

I may have developed some kind of paranoia reading HN recently, but the AI atmosphere is absolutely nuts to me. Have you ever thought that you would see a chart showing how population of horses was decimated by the mass introduction of efficient engines accompanied by an implication that there is a parallel to human population? And the article is not written in any kind of cautionary humanitarian approach, but rather…

I have been completely shocked by the number of people in the tech industry who seem to genuinely place no value on humanity and so many of its outputs. I see it in the writing of leaders within VC firms and AI companies but I also see it in ordinary conversations on the caltrain or in coffee shops. Friendship, love, sex, art, even faith and childrearing are opportunities for substitution with AI. Ask an AI to create…

[dead]

Re: Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden

#545

Post by heavyset_go »

LogicFailsMe wrote: post #483
maciejzj wrote: post #353

I may have developed some kind of paranoia reading HN recently, but the AI atmosphere is absolutely nuts to me. Have you ever thought that you would see a chart showing how population of horses was decimated by the mass introduction of efficient engines accompanied by an implication that there is a parallel to human population? And the article is not written in any kind of cautionary humanitarian approach, but rather…

I think we have a bunch of people in the United States who see what we elected for leadership and the choices he made to advise him, and they have given up all hope. That despondent attitude is infusing their opinions on everything. But chin up, he's really old, and he doesn't seem very healthy or he'd be out there leading the charge throwing those rallies every weekend of which he used to be so fond. And low informa…

> But chin up, he's really old, and he doesn't seem very healthy or he'd be out there leading the charge throwing those rallies every weekend of which he used to be so fond.

At this point in time, his whimsy is the only thing holding back younger, more extreme acolytes from doing what they want. Once he's gone, lol.

Re: Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden

#546

Post by bdangubic »

twodave wrote: post #508
bdangubic wrote: post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

except you know, you had a job. and coming out of college could get one… if you were graduating right now in compsci you’ll find a wasteland with no end in sight…

You’re assuming a lot about me that isn’t true, but let’s just say we can’t really know, can we? And I think it’s a bit reductionist to attribute the current job market to LLMs. The market started to suck long before LLMs became useful.

my apologies, I did not mean you as YOU, just general “you”…

and while we can’t know we can also… kind of know or look at data etc…

IntuitionLabs, “AI’s Impact on Graduate Jobs: A 2025 Data Analysis” (2025) -

https://intuitionlabs.ai/pdfs/ai-s-impact-on-graduate-jobs-a...

Indeed Hiring Lab, “AI at Work Report 2025: How GenAI is Rewiring the DNA of Jobs” (September 2025) -

https://www.hiringlab.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Indeed-...

Re: Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden

#547

Post by s17n »

mkl wrote: post #272
s17n wrote: post #4

This is a fun piece... but what killed off the horses wasn't steady incremental progress in steam engine efficiency, it was the invention of the internal combustion engine.

Engines, not just steam engines.

Sure, but if you look at more complex picture of engine development you could just as easily support the proposition that programmers are currently not in any danger (by pointing out that the qualitative differences between IC and steam engines were decisive when it comes to replacing horses, and the correct analogy is that much like a steam engine could never replace a horse, a transformer model can never replace a human).

Not detracting from the article, I think it's a fun way to shake your brain into the entirely appropriate space of "rapid change is possible"!

Re: Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden

#548

Post by billisonline »

rukuu001 wrote: post #238
billisonline wrote: post #50

An engine performs a simple mechanical operation. Chess is a closed domain. An AI that could fully automate the job of these new hires, rather than doing RAG over a knowledge base to help onboard them, would have to be far more general than either an engine or a chessbot. This generality used to be foregrounded by the term "AGI." But six months to a year ago when the rate of change in LLMs slowed down, and those exci…

I think a lot about how much we altered our environment to suit cars. They're not a perfect solution to transport, but they've been so useful we've built tons more road to accommodate them. So, while I don't think AGI will happen any time soon, I wonder what 'roads' we'll build to squeeze the most out of our current AI. Probably tons of power generation.

"Tons of power generation?" Perhaps we will go in that direction (as OpenAI projects), but it assumes the juice will be worth the squeeze, i.e., that scaling laws requiring much more power for LLM training and/or inference will deliver a qualitatively better product before they run out. The failure of GPT 4.5, while not a definitive end to scaling, was a pretty discouraging sign.

Re: Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden

#549

Post by odo1242 »

somenameforme wrote: post #270
odo1242 wrote: post #181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, keep in mind students at UCLA at 1967 were probably among the most wealthy in the country. A lot more average people at UCLA nowadays. Of course being financially well off wouldn't be the most important thing if you were already financially well off.

Interesting question that the study can also answer, because it also asked about parental income! --- 1966 Median Household Income = $7400 [1]. 51% of students in the $0-9999 bracket Largest chunk of students (33%) in $6k-$9999 bracket. Percent of students from families earning at least 2x median = 23% --- 2015 Median Household Income = $57k [1]. 65% of students came from families earning more than $60k. Largest chun…

Oh, I guess not then lol
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