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America’s incarceration rate is in decline

theatlantic.com

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Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#541

Post by 1vuio0pswjnm7 »

actuallyalys wrote: post #171
1vuio0pswjnm7 wrote: post #83

The Atlantic suggests this results from the release of those convicted during a decades long crime wave, which apprently took place when many of us grew up. Perhaps it also tracks with a progressive decline in law enforcement. Whether that is because crime waves not longer exist or whether it is some other reason is a question for the reader. A substanbtial amount of crime is now done via internet. Few are ever convi…

Crime is also down compared to where it was if you ask people directly [0]. [0]: https://ncvs.bjs.ojp.gov/multi-year-trends/crimeType

Good grief. There should be a federal law against that much Google Javascript and tracking on a government website without offering a non-Google, no-JS alternative.

https://bjs.ojp.gov/data-collection/ncvs

https://ncvs.bjs.ojp.gov/data/custom-graphics/person/all_all...

The NCVS measures self-reported victims not convicts.

It does not measure criminal charges, convictions or imprisonment.

The NCVS is only focused on a subset of crimes, some of which do not carry prison sentences. For example, it excludes drug offences. It excludes manslaughter and homicide. It excludes financial crimes.

The survey is only given to census recipients, i.e., households and individuals. Non-residential addresses are not included. It only targets a subset of crime victims.

Perhaps better sources to look at would be UCR, SRS and NIBRS.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#542

Post by matthewdgreen »

FredPret wrote: post #435
matthewdgreen wrote: post #255

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The prison industry is very profitable and influential. If prison populations are dropping naturally, you might imagine that politicians might start looking for some new population to incarcerate.

No it isn’t. One of the biggest ones, GEO, only made $30m last year with a margin of 1.1%. Another one, CXW, made $84m. SSTI is losing money. Microsoft makes $284m… per day .

Have you compared Microsoft’s published lobbying budget to that of the private prison industry?

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#543

Post by dcow »

quantified wrote: post #262
b112 wrote: post #236

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is your proof that it will not decline further? If you have no proof, then at the very least the cause must be investigated. After all, the concern is that the current rate of declining birth rate, means extinction in a few centuries. You don't just shrug that off and say "oh well, it'll probably be just fine."

Sure I do. You have zero proof that decline goes below a world population of 1 billion. This belief that it must always grow is based on just a fear. Very similar to the fear that gays marrying will cause everyone else to stop. Hasn't happened.

I wasn’t as clear as I should have been: I am not talking about global population and humans going to zero in some hyperbolic nightmare fantasy. I am talking about one society, e.g. US population, living with the values and freedoms and technology we enjoy today, sustaining itself. Our society will cease to exist because of course humans aren’t just going to stop making babies. It’s just that the ones that do achieve positive replacement rate will have different society than us. The call to action is that if we want our comfortable society to persist, we have to swing back to a positive replacement rate at some point time (preferably before we become an irrelevant global minority), and also figure out how to insulate against the other faster growing societies, eventually. I never argued we always have to go up, that only matters in the context of ways to combat other more rapidly growing populations.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#544

Post by dcow »

quantified wrote: post #230
dcow wrote: post #219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We may have swung the pendulum a little too far towards deliberate, though. The birthrate right now is below replacement rate, meaning that if we keep going like this (even if the birthrate doesn't keep trending down and holds steady) that society will die off. We need to figure out how to build an economy and society that can facilitate deliberate responsible parentage younger and more often. Luckily we have generat…

A plane at 75,000 feet can descend for a long time and then level off without crashing. Eventually population will stop declining. Everyone needs to just chill about a declined birthrate.

The plane only levels off by taking the fact that it has no power to its engines seriously, troubleshooting, and then restoring power. That’s all I’m suggesting we start to do.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#545

Post by dcow »

quantified wrote: post #264
palmotea wrote: post #256

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We don't just shrug off the fantasy that there will be zero children born in "a couple of centuries"?? That's not a fantasy, it's the inevitable outcome of sub-replacement fertility, which is the state we find ourselves in (though my intuition says it will take longer than "a couple of centuries" to get to zero).

It's the inevitable outcome of everybody continuing it for all the generations that remain. As soon as there aren't enough people to manufacture contraceptives, it will of course grow. But after a few generations, there will be more land, water, animal and plant life, copper, cobalt, gold and such per person, and people can easily say "that shrinkage sucked, let's grow". You assume that things will always be the way…

Yes. We’re saying that shrinkage sucked and it’s time to grow. It’s sooner than you’d imagined, perhaps.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#546

Post by dcow »

solatic wrote: post #258
dcow wrote: post #219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We may have swung the pendulum a little too far towards deliberate, though. The birthrate right now is below replacement rate, meaning that if we keep going like this (even if the birthrate doesn't keep trending down and holds steady) that society will die off. We need to figure out how to build an economy and society that can facilitate deliberate responsible parentage younger and more often. Luckily we have generat…

Or, you continue to grow the population through immigration. The US is unique (or maybe there are a handful of others, I don't know) in its ability to welcome immigrants who, within two generations, largely see themselves as Americans first and not as the identity of their grandparents. American identity politics has eroded this somewhat but it is still largely true, for example, that grandchildren of immigrants will…

This only works if you indoctrinate. I’d say the current US phenomenon is something between raw relocation and true indoctrination. The entire point of my comment was related to maintaining the society we all enjoy (not FUD about some zero population earth as it was construed). If you progressively and move other people into your society but they don’t share your core values then your society dies. If you indoctrinate and accept only those who share your values, then your society can sustain. I’m talking basics like shared desire to respect and uphold a constitution, having a language everyone is expected to know to perform civic functions, equal playing field for both wages and taxes. I’m not saying societies shouldn’t evolve. I’m suggesting that there is a difference between thoughtful social progress and feeling like an alien in your own city.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#547

Post by anonzzzies »

Tade0 wrote: post #483
Workaccount2 wrote: post #367

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lifestyle is key here. An older friend conveyed to me pretty much the exact same thing you are, that he cannot imagine having kids at 40 because you will not be able to keep up with them energy wise. You get old and your body really starts to give in. Alright Geoff, thanks, but you are 54 and do zero exercise, have a diet of eating out at fast food and fast casual restaurants, a body type that would be described as "…

Physical shape is not the same or even proportional to the ability to pull all-nighters. I know two men 18 years apart in age who became fathers at the same time - two months apart to be exact. Even though the older is an avid gym-goer, it's only the younger who can pull off popping back into full strength after less than 6h of sleep.

I always needed more than 8 hrs of sleep, now that I am into my 50s, I feel well after 4 hours. Anecdotes are good. My grandfather got to 100 not sleeping more than a few hours a night after he turned 55 and he raised my cousins as their parents were shite. I know whining young parents who complain about lack of sleep, I know older parents who never do as they were happy finally having a kid. Etc.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#548

Post by [deleted] »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #99
strict9 wrote: post #12

> Rapidly declining numbers of youth are committing crimes, getting arrested, and being incarcerated. This matters because young offenders are the raw material that feeds the prison system: As one generation ages out, another takes its place on the same horrid journey. Another factor which will soon impact this, if it isn't already, is the rapidly changing nature of youth. Fertility rates have been dropping since 200…

It's lead. Lead concentration in America "rapidly increased in the 1950s and then declined in the 1980s" [1]. There is a non-linear discontinuity among kids born in the mid 80s, with linear improvements through to those born in the late 2000s [2]. Arrest rates for violent crimes are highest from 15 to 29 years old (particularly 17 to 23-year olds) [3]. They're particularly low for adults after 50 years old. We're aro…

[deleted]

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#549

Post by anonzzzies »

saulpw wrote: post #88
1vuio0pswjnm7 wrote: post #83

The Atlantic suggests this results from the release of those convicted during a decades long crime wave, which apprently took place when many of us grew up. Perhaps it also tracks with a progressive decline in law enforcement. Whether that is because crime waves not longer exist or whether it is some other reason is a question for the reader. A substanbtial amount of crime is now done via internet. Few are ever convi…

Marijuana possession was the number one crime and is now legal in a majority of states. This seems like the high-order bit.

It is absolutely bonkers to me this ever was a crime. I don't like the stuff but where I am from it was basically like smoking (which now no one does anymore); seeing people getting prison time really, at that time, made me think 'land of the free, my ass'.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#550

Post by anonzzzies »

0xbadcafebee wrote: post #100
saulpw wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Marijuana possession was the number one crime and is now legal in a majority of states. This seems like the high-order bit.

^ This. The drug war was an attempt for conservatives to punish poor people for using a harmless drug (marijuana) to help cope with systemic inequality, and kids for wanting to have fun. From 1950-1970, America introduced new mandatory minimums for possession of marijuana. First-time offenses carried a minimum of 2-10 yrs in prison and a fine of up to $20,000. They repealed these minimums in 1970 because it did jack…

It is not a harmless drug though. Less harmless than most others, but not harmless.
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