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U.S. bombs Iranian nuclear sites

bbc.co.uk

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Re: U.S. bombs Iranian nuclear sites

#542
post #23

I think Netanyahu belongs in prison, and Trump, the less said the better, but: couldn't have happened to a nicer unauthorized weapons-grade uranium enrichment facility dug into the side of a mountain hours outside of population centers. If you haven't already, I highly recommend reading up on the GBU-57 "bunker buster" bomb, because it is some Merrie Melodies Acme brand munitions. It's deliberately as heavy as they c…

> unauthorized It's a weird one. I don't disagree with your post, still, what is "approved" nukes? A bunch of countries got them, then decided that no one else is allowed them. Then Israel also got them, also "unauthorized", but countries who don't mind pretend they don't know. In the end there is no authorized and unauthorized nukes, only a calculus of power.

> It's a weird one. I don't disagree with your post, still, what is "approved" nukes?

1. Check this list

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_nuclear_we...

2. Cross out the countries which are attacked for having nuclear weapons.

Here's your definition of approved nukes.

Re: U.S. bombs Iranian nuclear sites

#544

[flagged]

To me, the only point that matters is #3 and to the best of my knowledge it isn't true any longer.

Iran has produced a large amount of >60% U-235 (enriched), probably hundreds of kilograms, way more than would be required for any peaceful purpose. I don't think any modern medical uses actually require enriched uranium any more. And anyway, how much medical imaging or radiation treatment could you possibly be doing? And they could be developing propulsion systems, that wouldn't be a peaceful purpose (it would be a military ship).

Put all this together and it seems abundantly clear that the sole purpose of Iran's HEU program is the production of nuclear weapons. HEU isn't required in any significant amount for peaceful purposes.

Re: U.S. bombs Iranian nuclear sites

#545

I imagine every reasonably-sized country looking at this and thinking: "well, we'd be idiots not to have nuclear weapons by any means necessary." This will be one of the single-most proliferation-inducing events in history, maybe save Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

The issue is that a nuclear armed Iran (and remember that Iran is largely detested in the middle east, and is broadly considered to be a destabilizing enemy) would result in the rest of the middle east feeling compelled to quickly pursue their own nuclear weapons programs. No one wants an nuclear armed Iran.

Re: U.S. bombs Iranian nuclear sites

#546

[flagged]

3. You can use highly enriched uranium (HEU) for things other than weapons, but the weapons are the only things that require HEU. Medical isotopes and propulsion can be done with LEU. For instance, Argentina produces medical Mo99 from LEU [1]. US Navy wants to switch to LEU for submarines [2]. One of the reasons for these developments is exactly proliferation risk management.

[1] https://inis.iaea.org/records/fe51q-17w28/files/35015774.pdf

[2] https://fissilematerials.org/library/doe16.pdf

Re: U.S. bombs Iranian nuclear sites

#547
post #366
post #23

I think Netanyahu belongs in prison, and Trump, the less said the better, but: couldn't have happened to a nicer unauthorized weapons-grade uranium enrichment facility dug into the side of a mountain hours outside of population centers. If you haven't already, I highly recommend reading up on the GBU-57 "bunker buster" bomb, because it is some Merrie Melodies Acme brand munitions. It's deliberately as heavy as they c…

Let’s hope that the destruction of facilities comes with the regime change in Iran. otherwise it may have just given a brief pause and further escalation. If the regime survives, now Iranian people have a very good reasons to ignore its shortcomings and tyranny and Do a proper sacrifice. It’s a natural resources rich nation of 90 million people. If they want to get serious, they can get serious.

My conclusion from the last 30 years of regime changes in ME is, be careful what you wish for. Iraq, Syria, Libya, Egypt - they all had their regimes "improved" by well-meaning (?) external powers, and they all went pretty badly.

That's not to endorse any of these regimes, including the current Iranian one, just saying the variance is enormous around these events.

Re: U.S. bombs Iranian nuclear sites

#548
post #476

Iran never had the deterrent North Korea had. And by being a theocracy they heavily skewed any threat calculus against themselves. What they were doing, inching towards nukes, was a horrible move. In their position, you either sprint covertly and not play at all. I suspect that after their nuclear program was discovered and set back they fell victim to the sunk cost fallacy and convinced themselves they could repurpo…

If anything, the lack of competence is on the other side. Was enriched uranium destroyed? I doubt it. Have they even "obliterated" Fordow site buried 90 m deep inside the mountain? I have serious doubts. Iran's nuclear program was set back some months if anything.

Even if it is only set back by a few months, that is enough time to put pressure on Iran to abandon it altogether.

Keep in mind, Israel has full aerial control over Iran and has taken out hundreds of their missile launchers.

We can keep pounding the various nuclear facilities and hinder ant chances of rebuilding, making any effort futile.

Re: U.S. bombs Iranian nuclear sites

#549

As someone who absolutely hates American bullying of a hegemony. This is one case where I believe people of Iran might come out beneficial of it. In the long term? I am not so sure. But will that happen? I doubt it. A country like America likes authoritarian regimes that like to listen to America. So Iranian things in the best interest of America would be the same theocracy but docile to America at least in the near…

> The point is - we wish there were no nukes in our heating beautiful world; but tough luck, so you better get your own and get it soon.

Exactly my thoughts. We were absolutely blessed to have been developing our own nuclear capabilities at a time of intense international scrutiny. We were sanctioned to oblivion by the West for that until they realized (after Pakistan too developed their nukes, comfortably) that you can't simply ignore the elephant in the room. And we paid for it dearly too (with the assassinations of leaders in our nuclear programme).

At this point, it should be expected of any rational self-serving sovereign nation that they should develop nukes, especially if they have a record of historical non-aggression. South Korea, modern Japan, the EU (especially those in direct threat of Russia like Poland)... I don't expect Germany to grow a pair to not rely on the US, any time in the near future.

Re: U.S. bombs Iranian nuclear sites

#550

This is not the end. This is the beginning of another Iraq war, set up exactly the same way: claiming, with dubious proof, an imminent risk from weapons of mass destruction. Iran’s options here are to bomb US bases, which are a lot closer by, mine the Strait of Hormuz, blow up oil infrastructure in nearby countries who are harboring US bases. This might risk Iran a much larger war but the alternative of doing nothing…

Dubious proof?! Iran has been blatantly pursuing nuclear weapons for decades - and the west (along with much of the rest of the world and the middle east) has been working to counter it the whole time. Remember that in the middle east, Iran is considered a dire enemy.

Yes, dubious proof. A quick Google search can reveal this claim has been bs for decades, consistently evaluated by the US’ own intelligence, up until a day ago [0]

But that doesn’t matter anymore

0. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c056zqn6vvyo

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