Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

wsj.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

541–550 of 777 posts

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#541

Post by sebmellen »

parodysbird wrote: post #508
sebmellen wrote: post #438

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1. The further you are up the chain of abstraction, the less “valuable” the export is as a form of power. Think of this as a spectrum between hard and soft assets — if you decline to sell advanced computing software to your rival, you may harm their ability to optimize crop yields, or whatever. But if you decline to sell them steel, or oil, you may decimate their energy supply and bring their economy to a halt. So, g…

The Dutch and Swiss are very powerful, relative to their size. You can say fantasy things like "if they were invaded tomorrow", but that's not reality. The US has atomic weapons, but has lost almost every war it has started since having nukes. Having weapons doesn't mean you will be faced with contexts to actually use them. "Genome-targeted bioweapons" is just made up nonsense. Just making up "if" statements of fanta…

The idea of an "atomic bomb" would have seemed fantastical before it was developed. Bioweaponry is underfunded, far more dangerous than you think, and is a hot topic for the PRC [0].

And let's be clear — the US did not "lose a war" in Afghanistan or Iraq. Yes, we had failed pseudo-occupations. That is not the same as losing a war. No country, save perhaps Iraq during the Gulf War, has experienced the force of a modern American army. And if you want know what happened during the Gulf War, look at the "Casualties and losses" section on the Wikipedia page [1]. Spoiler: America won, Saddam lost.

You, and I, and the entire world, have been living under a Pax Americana for the past 70-something years. As that world order fractures, you will see that no country without hard assets and military power, the Netherlands and Switzerland included, are as powerful as they may seem.

Friedrich Merz, the incoming German Prime Minister, spoke very eloquently about this in his first televised conversation. Germany will lead the re-militarization of Europe (disclaimer: I am also a German citizen) [2].

[0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethnic_bioweapon#People's_Repu...

[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_War

[2]: https://www.youtube.com/shorts/CBhioWra4rA

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#542

Post by piva00 »

thethimble wrote: post #525
nitwit005 wrote: post #505

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm fairly convinced it's easier feel like there is some plan, even if a bad or sinister one, than things being in a state of genuine chaos. You occasionally see the people jumping between different ideas as to what the underlying plan is, once events no longer support their initial idea.

The plan is crystal clear: 1. When equities crash, market liquidity floods the bond market causing yields to drop 2. Refinance debt at these lower rates massively reducing interest burden 3. Cut government spending to cause rates to drop further 4. Reduced rates with a balanced budget results in non-inflationary borrowing and an economic upswing Along the way, eliminate taxes for those earning below $150k. If all of…

It's not that crystal clear when the ideas from Stephan Miran to reshape the world order by turning allies into vassals is also part of the plan.

There's a plan, it's to reshape the global trade à la Bretton-Woods, and the Plaza Accords.

The rest is just noise and plausible deniability for people to gobble up and accept to have been shoved into a New World Order.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#543

Post by sebmellen »

walterbell wrote: post #527
sebmellen wrote: post #438

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1. The further you are up the chain of abstraction, the less “valuable” the export is as a form of power. Think of this as a spectrum between hard and soft assets — if you decline to sell advanced computing software to your rival, you may harm their ability to optimize crop yields, or whatever. But if you decline to sell them steel, or oil, you may decimate their energy supply and bring their economy to a halt. So, g…

> The Dutch, for example, own ASML, but this doesn’t really give them any power, because their tools are relatively “open”. https://cset.georgetown.edu/wp-content/uploads/CSET-Tracing-... That a Dutch company, ASML, commercialized a technology pioneered in America’s national laboratory ecosystem and largely funded by Intel also has important lessons for policymakers interested in protecting and promoting the next eme…

You prove my point.

Open innovation does not lead to geopolitical power.

There is one exception, which is that you can use your open innovation pipeline as a carrot to recruit intelligent people who then bolster your closed innovation ecosystem. The US used to be very good at this. We are still very good at this, but we're getting worse, and we're progressively more hostile to skilled immigration.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#544

Post by JackYoustra »

lenerdenator wrote: post #464
JackYoustra wrote: post #215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Imagine what the vibes would be on the West Coast if there was a huge set of policy changes that decimated and liquidated the high tech industries We had large inflation caused by Joe Biden's industrial revival acts (spurring a massive increase in factory construction (see https://home.treasury.gov/news/featured-stories/unpacking-th... ) that led to interest rate rises and a TON of tech layoffs! People on this foru…

> that led to interest rate rises Interest rates didn't rise because of industrial revival acts; they rose because they had been artificially low for a decade and someone had to throw water on the economy to cool it lest hyperinflation hit. > and a TON of tech layoffs! The nature of tech layoffs and what has happened in the Midwest over the last 50 years are completely different. When a guy is let go from Meta, he's…

> Interest rates didn't rise because of industrial revival acts; they rose because they had been artificially low for a decade and someone had to throw water on the economy to cool it lest hyperinflation hit.

I hate "artificially low" why artificial? What makes something artificial and what makes it real? In economics, there's an idea of a natural interest rate: the interest rate which is the lowest under which inflation will not occur. That has been trending lower, see https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/rstar. It absolutely is not artificially set anywhere: the fed doesn't set the natural rate of interest, it accommodates it with a policy rate and has to deal with a 12-18 month lag for their policy to be effective (a fun quirk - there's a cool badeconomics thread on this) which is why it was hard to deal with inflation caused by the russian invasion: you can't predict that 12-18 months out!

> The nature of tech layoffs and what has happened in the Midwest over the last 50 years are completely different.

No data backing this up.

> where are you getting that from OC's comment?

OC talking about media calling them 'flyover country' as if it matters / is somehow out of bounds conduct at all.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#545

Post by JackYoustra »

irrational wrote: post #540
JackYoustra wrote: post #222

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The rich have most of their money in stocks, saying they can lower stocks to buy stocks doesn't make much sense

They get loans using their portfolios as collateral and then use the loans to buy stocks. This is very standard.

wouldn't a drop in equities be the worst thing for them then? That'd trigger a margin call and liquidation; at the very least, they can do that without the shares falling.

You're implicitly saying that they have an enormous if not cash position then leverage capacity that they're holding out on with the opportunity to buy more shares. In which case I challenge you: tell me where! I see tons of evidence of rich people completely shifted to risky risky equities (accredited investments have many attractions, one of them is not risk / 'volatility' (depending on your definition, see matt levine for details)!).

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#546

Post by photonthug »

csense wrote: post #531
cycomanic wrote: post #324

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was bringing this up with a guy yesterday who was genuinely supporting the policies and somebody chimed in that they were not worried at all, because everyone wants to trade with the big boy in town. Trust is not important if they are afraid of you (I'm paraphrasing). Quite a different perspective, but it is consistent with an observation I made about a lot of US comments, people are quite happy for their country/g…

> "if you don't want it to be done to you don't do it to others" Doesn't work. We opened trade to China in the '70s. They took advantage of us, stealing IP, manipulating currency, paying their people terrible wages, crapping all over the environment. We let their companies freely in the US, they very severely restricted US business ventures in China. Detroit, a former shining city in the industrial heartland, is now…

For the people who want ^this guy to shut up but haven't engaged.. which part of the above is wrong? I can see hyperbole of "bandit infested ruin" pushing some buttons but otoh it's seems likely that crime is connected to general economic health.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#547

Post by Zanfa »

newAccount2025 wrote: post #422
vitaflo wrote: post #404

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The constitution says you’re wrong. And the justices he appointed would uphold the constitution if he tried it.

Sure, on paper, but who will enforce it? He’s already attempted a coup. He has 4 years to prepare for the retry. He’s already putting loyalists into law enforcement and military spots. He’s immune to all lawsuits and has the congress cowed.

And just to be sure he gets the help he needs from the public, preemptively blanket pardon everybody.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#548

Post by cachehit »

billy99k wrote: post #478
tock wrote: post #445

Earlier quoted context omitted.

America is the richest country in the world. That is the payback. Yet somehow the working class is screwed. People don't want to admit wealth distribution is the problem because that would make them "communists". It's an emotional response. I'm scared how far they take it.

"People don't want to admit wealth distribution is the problem because that would make them "communists"." If you are referring to taking wealth by force from people that earned it and giving to people that didn't earn it, yes it's 'communist'. There's nothing emotional about a methodology that has failed over and over again.

>If you are referring to taking wealth by force from people that earned it and giving to people that didn't earn it, yes it's 'communist'

No, it's taxation. A pretty common phenomenon.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#549

Post by kristiandupont »

walterbell wrote: post #492
amluto wrote: post #462

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The entire new tariff scheme is napkin math. Although it could also be napkin math done by some LLM. If it was real math, it wouldn’t assume that there is some magical trade elasticity that is completely linear in the tariff rate. And real math might notice that the prices of goods that are subject to tariffs are an utterly absurd measure of value, cost, movement of money, or anything else. Consider: A US company doe…

> The entire new tariff scheme is napkin math. See the 2024 paper (40 pages) by Stephen Miran, current chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, which has influenced tariff policy, https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43589350 https://financialpost.com/news/stephen-miran-economist-trump... > Miran.. points to Trump’s application of tariffs on China in 2018-2019, which he argues “passed with little discernible macroe…

Whatever paper may have "influenced" the policy, here is the official statement and it is very much napkin math and nothing else.

https://ustr.gov/issue-areas/reciprocal-tariff-calculations

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#550

Post by photonthug »

cycomanic wrote: post #324
toddmorey wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Very well put. Alliances take years to build but can be broken in just days. I'm tempted to think (hope? dream?) that the markets and trade will rebound if all this chaos makes American politics swing back towards an interest in global stability, but I think anyone partnering with the US would do so VERY carefully and right now the entire world is plotting how to remove US dependencies.

I was bringing this up with a guy yesterday who was genuinely supporting the policies and somebody chimed in that they were not worried at all, because everyone wants to trade with the big boy in town. Trust is not important if they are afraid of you (I'm paraphrasing). Quite a different perspective, but it is consistent with an observation I made about a lot of US comments, people are quite happy for their country/g…

> Trust is not important if they are afraid of you .. Europeans seem to be much more susceptible to an "if you don't want it to be done to you don't do it to others" argument.

I've noticed this also, having spent a lot of time in both places. Some would say this is part of the American national character, and it's the darker side of hard-nosed individualistic cowboys, etc. The famous opening speech of Patton comes to mind here:

> When you were kids, you all admired the champion marble shooter, the fastest runner, the big league ball players, the toughest boxers. Americans love a winner and will not tolerate a loser. Americans play to win all the time. Now, I wouldn't give a hoot in hell for a man who lost and laughed.

There's at least some truth to this and the mean-spirited arrogance/strength in the rest of the speech being in line with national character, I think it has to be admitted. This seems like the guy was certainly never cut out to be a diplomat or act with moderation, and maybe most Americans aren't. That said though.. maybe a deeper issue is that suffering (economic or otherwise) changes people. Makes them merely hypocrtical in the best case, aggravated and mean on average, or in the worst case positively cruel. A lot of America has not been ok for a long time now.

Post reply on HN