541–550 of 1001 posts
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Exactly. So then why draw conclusions about how SolarCity was a bad deal for shareholders (see parent comments)? There's no substantiation of that either way.
We know the batteries are a lot of revenue. The substantiation is not zero.
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Just keep in mind this is all funny money ! The valuation of those 2 companies combined should be X is heavily in debt, diminishing user base, and bleeding money. 0 profits xAI is yet to make any actual revenues outside of ... X. Also bleeding money Although I would admit, that these companies are not valued based by their economics, but rather on political power they provide to the owner.
As best I can tell the deal includes paying off $12 billion of Twitter debt. So that's real money, though that seems like it's basically all of the cash that xAI has raised, so if that's the case that's pretty wild. Edit: I misread, Musk said it's an all-stock deal, so you're right, it's all funny money. I think that means the combined entity is taking on that debt. It's still great for Twitter and bad for xAI invest…
Remember, these megabillionaires are due to stock valuations, and live rich lifestyles on the basis of lending against the value of stock. If that value drops and a margin call forces actual selling, then Musk loses shares in Tesla.
I have to think this stunt is related to Musk needing some liquidity somehow, or being unable to cover private liquidity crunch with public assets.
TSLA is ludicrously overvalued. P/E is 150, based on Q4 earnings which were 1/3 "real" revenue, 1/3 mark-to-market-BTC (aka one shot), 1/3 CAFE/subsidies which Trump will nuke in 6 months.
But the "real" earnings that were already flat in Q4 are seeing a huge drop in EU/CN and who knows in the US. If "real" revenue drops 20%, the "real" earnings might drop 70% or more.
Anyway, that 150 p/e is ACTUALLY 450 in my mind, but after Q1 reports it will ACTUALLY be almost 1000 or worse.
The only thing keeping the stock afloat is AI hype, but 1000 p/e ratios are for people with market dominance and fundamental leads on competitors. Tesla is arguably middle of the road in both self driving and robots.
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Every time I see deals like this that are going to be such raw deals for the majority of those who invested it feels like a keen reminder that all the talk of market efficiency the pro caps in Washington talk about are full of it This is a terrible and inefficient use of money. It’s inevitable that this paper house will fall over
Markets are plenty efficient. They’ve just lit billions of dollars on fire that used to belong to people stupid enough to believe in Elon Musk.
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Every time I see deals like this that are going to be such raw deals for the majority of those who invested it feels like a keen reminder that all the talk of market efficiency the pro caps in Washington talk about are full of it This is a terrible and inefficient use of money. It’s inevitable that this paper house will fall over
Markets are plenty efficient. They’ve just lit billions of dollars on fire that used to belong to people stupid enough to believe in Elon Musk.
It's still wildly overvalued, and at it's unclear how long the market will stay irrational.
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In what way though? I’ve yet to see anything that rivals any accomplishments by NASA. Or were you being punny?
Did you not watch them land the starship? That's easily the biggest space-faring accomplishment since Apollo, and certainly not something NASA could replicate in the foreseeable future. Speaking of the moon, NASA's SLS is projected to cost several orders of magnitude more than a super heavy launch, and is only aiming for the moon as opposed to Mars. If there's one place that Doge could really, actually stop a lot of…
The “waste” is really just a different risk tolerance. You could make many of the NASA requirements go away, but nobody wants to be the one who signs up for that when the next disaster happens.
So he just sold himself a company he already owns for a valuation that he himself assigned to that company but that was less than what he paid for it, and he paid entirely using “money” that has a made up value and which he issues himself? Wild.
I just borrowed a hundred trillion dollars from myself, then paid it back instantly. This means the majority of 2025 US GDP is now my financial activity, right? Seems newsworthy.