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TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

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Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#541

Post by pqtyw »

krainboltgreene wrote: post #537
jabiko wrote: post #532

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> China is a democracy Regardless of which democracy index ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_indices ) you consult, they all disagree with that statement.

V-dem, Bertelsmann, and EDI literally has scores for China. You'll notice places like Brunei, an absolute monarchy, isn't on the list. Because China is a democracy and Brunei is not a democracy.

Legally (according to their constitution) USSR was also a democracy. But that hardly meant much in practice. Of course the Chinese society is probably much "freer" than than the Soviet one was prior to Gorbachev's reforms but again.. an extremely low standard.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#542

Post by silvestrov »

throw0101a wrote: post #512
tnt128 wrote: post #314

The idea that the US protects Taiwan from a possible Chinese invasion over chips is one of those things that sounds believable but really isn't going to happen. From China’s perspective, the cost of war is much higher than the cost of developing these chips themselves. In the worst-case scenario, they would be 2-3 years behind the cutting edge, which is not mission-critical. Most electronics (civilian or military) do…

> From China’s perspective, the cost of war is much higher than the cost of developing these chips themselves. You are being economically rational. Not all human decisions are done through that lens. "Thucydides found that people go to war out of 'honor, fear, and interest.'” — Donald Kagan, On the Origins of War and the Preservation of Peace * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Kagan * https://acoup.blog/2019/12/0…

The problem with your argument is that in current times it is much more likely that China acts rationally than the US does.

A better argument would be that when China has "good enough" chips then they don't care about chip production in Taiwan. They will only care about sea access. So if Taiwan ends up as completely destroyed rock, then that is ok for China. They will see it as a much better result than other parts of China breaking away and becoming independent.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#543

Post by standardUser »

braincat31415 wrote: post #38
tensor wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Probably because Europe is not threatening them behind the scenes and perhaps offering money as well. Diversifying chip manufacturing more globally is pretty crucial to maintaining the world order though. Sadly, having a fab in the US under the current administration is not helpful to the west in general. Getting TSMC or building an alternative to TSMC in Europe, UK, Canada, Australia, would be very smart. I believe…

I doulbt anyone will build a factory in Europe. It won't be competitive because of the energy prices on the continent.

For any energy intensive industry there is always the option to build new wind and solar for relatively cheap. But labor is cheaper and less regulated in the US and we make it easy to hire skilled immigrants. Having a pro-coal president probably doesn't hurt (but having an anti-wind president might).

I think the bigger reasons are the security and trade issues. The US has embraced protectionism and is withdrawing from security obligations, yet Taiwan requires both US trade and US security guarantees to survive. Unlike with Ukraine, no other powers look capable of filling those roles if Trump keeps pursuing his America First agenda.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#544

Post by eloisius »

krainboltgreene wrote: post #534
eloisius wrote: post #529

Earlier quoted context omitted.

More like the Union holding out for 70 years in Puerto Rico after the Confederates won. In what sense do you mean China is a democracy? I may be brainwashed on CIA propaganda, but as far as I understand only party-vetted candidates may stand for election.

Wait do you not know what the KMT did? They're a rightwing party that killed/disappeared 30k journalists and intellectuals in Taiwan. How in the world is that comparable to the "union"? (But also yes Puerto Rico might be a better example). In the sense that they're on the V-Dem index, they have election laws, they have voter rolls, they have voter turnout, etc. Yes they have one party, so you don't directly vote for…

It's democratic because it's on the index? Every state is on the index. China ranks 177 out of 179 states on the index lol. So sure, where a perfect democracy score is 1.0, they score 0.015. It's not zero.

Yes, the KMT dictatorship era was awful. You might be surprised to know that in Taiwan there are national holidays commemorating those persecuted by the KMT. The reason The ROC (Taiwan) is more aptly comparable to the Union when making an analogy to alternative American history is because it was the original, legitimate government of China and the PRC were the rebels, just like the USA and Confederacy.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#545

Post by JumpCrisscross »

tokioyoyo wrote: post #466
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #373

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> As soon as China catches a whiff of the program, it’s an instant invasion This is correct and why any such project would need to be intensely covert and/or externally facilitated. > doctrine of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) rests on both parties being left in guaranteed ruins You don’t need MAD. Tehran isn’t aiming for MAD with America, and neither is Pyongyang. The threat of even a tactical retaliation has, t…

The risks don’t outweigh the potential benefits. Building a functional nuke isn’t an operation with a couple of laptops and internet connection. Also, Taiwanese economy is extremely tied to China. Things aren’t really black and white here. It’s not like all Taiwanese hate all mainlanders, nobody flies between countries and etc. Supermajority of people actually support status quo, rather than aiming for complete indep…

> not like all Taiwanese hate all mainlanders

Good neighbours, strong fences. You don’t need to hate your neighbour to appreciate sovereignty. If anything, returning to mutual respect between Taipei and Beijing, a stance which was being moved towards until Xi, should further cross-strait ties.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#546

Post by sho_hn »

jppittma wrote: post #517
tnt128 wrote: post #314

The idea that the US protects Taiwan from a possible Chinese invasion over chips is one of those things that sounds believable but really isn't going to happen. From China’s perspective, the cost of war is much higher than the cost of developing these chips themselves. In the worst-case scenario, they would be 2-3 years behind the cutting edge, which is not mission-critical. Most electronics (civilian or military) do…

Why not destroy the foundries, move all the TSMC employees to the US, rebuild them here (there is no surer investment), and let China have the land?

One reason is that none of these factories can be built without European ASML machines, and given how the US is doing its absolute best to disrupt its relationship with Europe, maybe it would be time to stop selling them there and consider selling them to China instead.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#547

Post by jabiko »

krainboltgreene wrote: post #537
jabiko wrote: post #532

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> China is a democracy Regardless of which democracy index ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_indices ) you consult, they all disagree with that statement.

V-dem, Bertelsmann, and EDI literally has scores for China. You'll notice places like Brunei, an absolute monarchy, isn't on the list. Because China is a democracy and Brunei is not a democracy.

> V-dem, Bertelsmann, and EDI literally has scores for China.

I think you confuse being listed on those indices with being a democracy.

On V-dem China takes place 177 of 179, the Bertelsmann index categorized China as "hard-line autocracy" and EDI categorizes it as "authoritarian"

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#548

Post by krainboltgreene »

jabiko wrote: post #547
krainboltgreene wrote: post #537

Earlier quoted context omitted.

V-dem, Bertelsmann, and EDI literally has scores for China. You'll notice places like Brunei, an absolute monarchy, isn't on the list. Because China is a democracy and Brunei is not a democracy.

> V-dem, Bertelsmann, and EDI literally has scores for China. I think you confuse being listed on those indices with being a democracy. On V-dem China takes place 177 of 179, the Bertelsmann index categorized China as "hard-line autocracy" and EDI categorizes it as "authoritarian"

"A list of democracies that don't score non-democracies" having China by definition means the indexes consider China a democracy.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#549

Post by Cthulhu_ »

jopsen wrote: post #259
world2vec wrote: post #52

Might be a silly question but considering the tensions between US and EU right now... What would happen to all these deals if ASML was was not allowed to sell their machines to US companies? I don't know enough to even speculate on these wild scenarios

There are parts manufactured around the world (including the US), and the lithography machines are NOT the only step with only one vendor. US/EU economies are too intertwined to be decoupled. Just distancing the US economy from China is hard.

Sure, but the US wants to put a minimum 25% tax on imports from Europe, that'll affect these machines as well.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#550

Post by tyre »

silvestrov wrote: post #542
throw0101a wrote: post #512

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> From China’s perspective, the cost of war is much higher than the cost of developing these chips themselves. You are being economically rational. Not all human decisions are done through that lens. "Thucydides found that people go to war out of 'honor, fear, and interest.'” — Donald Kagan, On the Origins of War and the Preservation of Peace * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Kagan * https://acoup.blog/2019/12/0…

The problem with your argument is that in current times it is much more likely that China acts rationally than the US does. A better argument would be that when China has "good enough" chips then they don't care about chip production in Taiwan. They will only care about sea access. So if Taiwan ends up as completely destroyed rock, then that is ok for China. They will see it as a much better result than other parts o…

> They will only care about sea access.

This is not why the CCP cares about Taiwan.

And they’ve cared quite a lot since before there were semiconductors.

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