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CIA now favors lab leak theory to explain Covid's origins

nytimes.com

541–550 of 868 posts

Re: CIA now favors lab leak theory to explain Covid's origins

#541

I think it’s important to note that there are really two “lab leak” theories: One in which the virus developed naturally, was collected in a remote location, and was being studied in a lab when it leaked from the lab into nearby human society. One in which it was not a dangerous virus originally, and it became dangerous in the lab through human agency, either maliciously (e.g. bioweapons research) or accidentally (e.…

>These two theories get mixed up constantly, either by accident or on purpose, who knows.

You literally just reduced 3 theories to 2: lab leak natural virus, lab leak medical GoF, and lab leak bioweapon. These theories get collapsed because there's no practical way to distinguish between them. A 4th theory, intentional release, is often used as a weakman for all lab leak theories, but isn't actually a leak at all.

>So it didn’t occur “naturally” but also wasn’t developed or engineered. Makes no sense.

Yeah, someone wants to split hairs, but it's impossible without knowing the specific definitions they want.

Re: CIA now favors lab leak theory to explain Covid's origins

#542

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not racist to blame China, but it is racist to accuse/harass/disparage Asian people and that was what was happening in America. Pushing back on the lab leak theory was at least in part to stop the dumbest among us from blaming their Asian neighbor. That and the lack of evidence.

It was racism to suggest that China’s only level4 bio lab that received funding for coronavirus research was the source of the leak… But not racism to declare that the virus must have come from a wet market where the savages eat uncooked bats and pangolin. Now the goal posts have shifted to “lack of evidence” knowing full well china would nuke the city before admitting they caused covid by negligence.

The WIV was doing research on bat coronaviruses at BSL-2, not BSL-4. See Ralph Baric's testimony covered in this Vanity Fair article:

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/story/ralph-baric-wuhan-lab-...

Re: CIA now favors lab leak theory to explain Covid's origins

#543
post #464

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Basically, things like "It started in Wuhan near the WIV" implies that we actually have found the first case, etc., when this is notoriously difficult to do, especially with a disease that can have mild or asymptomatic presentation.

Doesn't the same difficulty of finding the first case also apply to the wet market theory?

Indeed, so it could be some unidentified third place. There are few labs and many other possibilities for people to come into contact with animals, so that third place was probably not a lab.

Re: CIA now favors lab leak theory to explain Covid's origins

#544

Hasn't this always been the most likely cause? I thought practically all evidence pointed to that. I haven't even heard a competing theory.

The competing theory is that it was transmitted from living animals sold at a wet market in Wuhan. Either story isn't a great look for the CCP: either they failed to maintain sufficient health protocols to keep diseases from spreading in wet markets, or they let a dangerous virus leak from a lab. There's no theory for its origins that have the CCP looking competent, so I'm not sure why it's such a politicized topic.

I thought that was baseless speculation and the lab leak more likely explained it because it was in close proximity to the market.

Re: CIA now favors lab leak theory to explain Covid's origins

#545

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I feel that that could've been an honest mistake too. The intelligence networks there were weak, and if people were talking about it, they may have assumed wrongly that there was something there. Politicians hunting for excuses to do what they already want to do though, is definitely a thing.

>Politicians hunting for excuses to do what they already want to do though, is definitely a thing. Just to be clear: The people in charge are the CIA, not GWB. GWB was simply the right useful idiot at the right time in the right place.

That is very literally the opposite of what actually happened.

I don’t know where you are getting your information from but it’s absolutely incorrect.

It was Cheney specifically who was relying on Chalabi whom the CIA had repeatedly dismissed as a fabricator which is what was used as evidence.

Re: CIA now favors lab leak theory to explain Covid's origins

#546

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The two Covid strains were closely related with only a few mutations difference between them. As you’d expect if eg two different raccoon dogs were infected with the same virus and one of the lineages was preferred.

You would expect, as was the case with SARS, that we would then find the population of infected animals. That did not happen with COVID, and in fact when we went looking, the closest virus in a wild population was a bat coronavirus located 1000 miles away.

> You would expect, as was the case with SARS, that we would then find the population of infected animals.

In the case of SARS, the animals were not culled for months. The entire SARS response was slow - the virus kept spreading in farmed animal populations and kept spilling over into humans.

With SARS-CoV-2, the Chinese government immediately ordered all the suspect animals to be culled. No test results for those animals have ever been released, if they were ever even conducted.

> the closest virus in a wild population was a bat coronavirus located 1000 miles away.

Guangzhou, where the original SARS emerged, is just as far away from the bat populations and Wuhan is.

Re: CIA now favors lab leak theory to explain Covid's origins

#548

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> These two theories get mixed up constantly, either by accident or on purpose, who knows I'm struggling to see the practical difference. Ebola naturally evolved. I'm not sure I'm be more incensed if an American lab released natural versus artifical Ebola into the population.

The practical difference is that many of the arguments against lab-leak theories in general are actually arguments against the gain-of-function theory in particular . Things like lack of markers that would indicate engineering, or the presence of markers that would indicate animal origins. So distinguishing the two candidate theories becomes important for discerning whether the evidence is for or against a lab leak:…

Intentionally seeking out potentially harmful natural pathogens from remote locations and placing them in close proximity to people isn't relevant to lab leaks? Then why are they studied under high levels of security in the first place?

GoF research is so obviously a bad idea. The risks are enormous and the rewards are minuscule. But lab leaks of natural viruses are indicative of problems too.

Re: CIA now favors lab leak theory to explain Covid's origins

#549

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yep, another continent from the home is the best place for such kind of research.

If you want to research a cure from engineered virus from one hostile country, paying another hostile country to do virus engineering research for you is surely great logic.

China was not a hostile country in 2014, before Russians started the war.

Re: CIA now favors lab leak theory to explain Covid's origins

#550
post #464

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Basically, things like "It started in Wuhan near the WIV" implies that we actually have found the first case, etc., when this is notoriously difficult to do, especially with a disease that can have mild or asymptomatic presentation.

If you followed events at the time and the suppressed rumours from doctors in China end of 2019, the new illness began exactly around that area actually ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Li_Wenliang etc). There were no similar reports in another place on this planet. (Since 99% of other places do not have full control of media and many have better healthcare so if it happened it would be less likely to go unnoticed)

>no similar reports

Covid detected in wastewater samples

December 2019 in Italy: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7428442/

>November 2019 in Brazil: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.26.20140731v...

They found covid in samples of the sewage system in SC state Brazil in November. 2 months before it came out of wuhan

https://www.cnnbrasil.com.br/saude/novo-coronavirus-ja-estav...

>March 2019 in Spain: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.13.20129627v...

Brazil recorded its first COVID death April 15, 2019. Initially taken as a data entry error by some, data for 2019 is still published nearly six years after the fact.

https://transparencia.registrocivil.org.br/dados-covid-downl...

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